UFC 239 - Jones vs Santos

[ill800]

Yeah. Definitely a chance that Gilbert comes out and looks like a corpse, but IMO if Gilbert comes as 80% of what he was there's no justifying that line.

I personally think Gilbert is a shot fighter. Hasn’t won a fight in 6 years. Multiple injuries over his career. 37 years old is ancient in that division.

Yea he probably shouldn’t be that big of a dog as he’s the better grappler.

Allen should be significantly faster in striking and in scrambles.

I certainty wouldn’t make it a big play

 

[nebulousned]

Santos fought a more controlled slower pace fight against Jan, so he can do it, and his gas tank is better than you'd expect for a guy as explosive as he is. Jones might get into positions to finish but Santos could just get battered and survive possibly?

I'm on Nunes to finish

timestamp is at 26:04 if the UFC is doing that region locking thing again.

Jones says he'll beat him on the feet then take him down and finish him. Thiago got taken down fairly consistently by Eryk so I think Jones will have no problem. My issue is not knowing if Jones will get a sub or a TKO because he has his fair share of both. (and decision is still always a possibility)

I see Nunes by KO as pretty likely as well, but who knows what her gameplan is.

I really, really like Nunes here. I can't imagine her losing to 37 year old, overrated Holm when she's 6 years her junior and if anything is better because of her sinusitis surgery.

I like rockhold a lot too. I recently listened to an interview of his where he spoke about taking the time to build a good body for 205. That and the long layoff as well as him pinning a lot of performance issues on the weight cut are all goof signs for me.

I'll only be betting favourites this card it seems.

 

[LiquidNuke]

What do you guys think about the following parlay? Naurdiev ITD +125, Chisea Straight at -305, & Rockhold ITD +145. 50 bucks gets you 315. I had a great weekend last time out, so that's two good weeks in the last three. Looking to keep it going.

As I see it Naurdiev is taking a big step down in competition this time out, and should get back to his finishing ways. The Chisea play doesn't need much explaining, and I feel like Rockhold is a level above Jan and is very likely to finish if this one hits the mat.

 

[Lando]

What do you guys think about the following parlay? Naurdiev ITD +125, Chisea Straight at -305, & Rockhold ITD +145. 50 bucks gets you 315. I had a great weekend last time out, so that's two good weeks in the last three. Looking to keep it going.

As I see it Naurdiev is taking a big step down in competition this time out, and should get back to his finishing ways. The Chisea play doesn't need much explaining, and I feel like Rockhold is a level above Jan and is very likely to finish if this one hits the mat.

Replace rockhold with Jones and nunes. Theres less chance of them losing than rock getting clipped or going to the cards

Might just parlay Jones and Nunes mainly. Little bit on chiesa/ben and holm by decision to hedge

 

[LeskoJohnson]

Like I'm not running out to bet an old Melendez, but Allen is not particularly good. Almost wondering if there's injury news or something

Agreed. It’s possible, but I think is just the market fading old fighters with a lot of losses in recent fights. I think allen is pretty mediocre, he had a really tough fight with Amirkhani, and got manhandled by Mads Burnel before pulling that miracle sub on the third round. Melendez is tough as nails, fought Stephens 3 rounds with a fracture on the leg (happened in the 1st) and made a good fight still, he’s more experienced, and I think he has enough to get the W. Of course it’s a risky bet because we wont know what Melendez will show up, but @+325 it’s damm worth it (1u on it). I would cap him myself @+150

 

[LiquidNuke]

Welp, the opener is a women's bouts...

What do you guys think about Avila?

She seems to have good pop in her right hand and seemingly has a great engine looking at the kind of pace she puts out and the spammy flurries she drowns other girls with...

 

[Naught2Sixty]

Y'all watch that Sub underground match between Sanchez and Ellenberger? Me either, I just caught highlights. Ellenberger weighed 205 and Sanchez 183. 'Yes Jake' had a really tough time taking down Diego and Diego was even able to out scramble and get Jake's back at one point. Diego lost via quickest escape.

How does that apply to Chiesa? Well...I myself have never graded Mike as a particularly adept wrestler, subs from guard are low percentage and not reliable as a method of victory, isn't reeeealy a big hitter but Diego has an LOL chin so it might not matter.

Anyway without diving too much I see this fight as a competitive grappling match and the ferocity, agression and scramble of Diego will give Mike fits and could win him a decision.

 

[Xuh]

Welp, the opener is a women's bouts...

What do you guys think about Avila?

She seems to have good pop in her right hand and seemingly has a great engine looking at the kind of pace she puts out and the spammy flurries she drowns other girls with...

I'm just annoyed that Avila was sat at 1.40 vs Gatto, then Gatto withdrew (again... hmm) and now she is fighting Kianzad who is like 4 times better than Gatto, but Avila's price pretty quickly went back to 1.40ish and sits there... grrrrrrrrrrrrrrr

 

[LiquidNuke]

I'm just annoyed that Avila was sat at 1.40 vs Gatto, then Gatto withdrew (again... hmm) and now she is fighting Kianzad who is like 4 times better than Gatto, but Avila's price pretty quickly went back to 1.40ish and sits there... grrrrrrrrrrrrrrr

Just finally renewed my fight pass subscription and watched Avila vs Conners... Man, what an ass beating. Avila brings a kind of heat and aggression you don't normally see in womens bouts, and she's a damaging puncher with a high volume.

I think her ITD is available at +185... Macy just melted her in two, I think I'll take a stab at Avila duplicating the stoppage.

 

[Xuh]

Just finally renewed my fight pass subscription and watched Avila vs Conners... Man, what an ass beating. Avila brings a kind of heat and aggression you don't normally see in womens bouts, and she's a damaging puncher with a high volume.

I think her ITD is available at +185... Macy just melted her in two, I think I'll take a stab at Avila duplicating the stoppage.

well since you let the cat out the bag, yes she's very aggressive and Kianzad tends to quit, and is on short notice, so hopefully Avila ITD doesn't drop too much by the time all the euroweenie books drop their props

 

[Soccer Steve]

Just finally renewed my fight pass subscription and watched Avila vs Conners... Man, what an ass beating. Avila brings a kind of heat and aggression you don't normally see in womens bouts, and she's a damaging puncher with a high volume.

I think her ITD is available at +185... Macy just melted her in two, I think I'll take a stab at Avila duplicating the stoppage.

Macy is probably a future title challenger. I'd be careful comparing girls to her.

 

[LiquidNuke]

Macy is probably a future title challenger. I'd be careful comparing girls to her.

To be fair, at the same time that I agree with you I also think Avila is a very promising fighter who's ceiling we've yet to see... It's not like her resume is thin for a women with five/six bouts.

 

[LiquidNuke]

well since you let the cat out the bag, yes she's very aggressive and Kianzad tends to quit, and is on short notice, so hopefully Avila ITD doesn't drop too much by the time all the euroweenie books drop their props

What's happened to make you think of her as a quitter? About to watch her bout with Evinger...

 

[Xuh]

What's happened to make you think of her as a quitter? About to watch her bout with Evinger...

Her bout with Evinger

also her behaviour leading up to that bout.

Also her bout with Pa'ahlui.

Also her bout with Macy to some extent...

Evinger gave an interview talking about that bout, she said Kianzad was crying and whimpering while she was hitting her (Evinger sounded disgusted while talking about it lol, I think it was in the context of a 'what female fighters w00d you' question).

 

[ApplesVild]

Y'all watch that Sub underground match between Sanchez and Ellenberger? Me either, I just caught highlights. Ellenberger weighed 205 and Sanchez 183. 'Yes Jake' had a really tough time taking down Diego and Diego was even able to out scramble and get Jake's back at one point. Diego lost via quickest escape.

How does that apply to Chiesa? Well...I myself have never graded Mike as a particularly adept wrestler, subs from guard are low percentage and not reliable as a method of victory, isn't reeeealy a big hitter but Diego has an LOL chin so it might not matter.

Anyway without diving too much I see this fight as a competitive grappling match and the ferocity, agression and scramble of Diego will give Mike fits and could win him a decision.

Reading a few things and watching a few videos people actually had me considering Sanchez for a second but I just cant see it. This probably doesn't even hit the mat, MC will put his lights out standing and it will be quickly clear that this is a miss match.

I think the UFC are just doing MC a solid giving him another washed fighter to pick up an easy win against. This isnt a grappling match, its MMA, and Sanchez has no chin and terrible striking. Not saying MC is great, but it is without doubt better than Diegos

 

[Deleted member 560591]

Masvidal at +200 feels like a must bet

 

[Naught2Sixty]

Reading a few things and watching a few videos people actually had me considering Sanchez for a second but I just cant see it. This probably doesn't even hit the mat, MC will put his lights out standing and it will be quickly clear that this is a miss match.

I think the UFC are just doing MC a solid giving him another washed fighter to pick up an easy win against. This isnt a grappling match, its MMA, and Sanchez has no chin and terrible striking. Not saying MC is great, but it is without doubt better than Diegos

Only a sith deals in absolutes.

 

[ApplesVild]

Only a sith deals in absolutes.

I dont know what that means

 

[Naught2Sixty]

I dont know what that means

 

[Jordan3399]

Reading a few things and watching a few videos people actually had me considering Sanchez for a second but I just cant see it. This probably doesn't even hit the mat, MC will put his lights out standing and it will be quickly clear that this is a miss match.

I think the UFC are just doing MC a solid giving him another washed fighter to pick up an easy win against. This isnt a grappling match, its MMA, and Sanchez has no chin and terrible striking. Not saying MC is great, but it is without doubt better than Diegos

Chiesas striking is absolutely shit and he hates to be pressured and just dives in for the clinch to grapple. Diegos pretty bad but he pressures relentlessly which will terrify Mike so unless he lands some fairly flukish counter he'll probably be left lunging in for a bodylock.

And yes I called Chiesa's striking shit before someone posts a gif of him dropping Masvidal.