UFC 245 Usman vs Covington

[ill800]

This might be the worst I've ever seen anyone cutting weight, and its only gonna get worse smh

Well, I can say Aldo is no stranger to horrible weight cuts and if he’s not affected too much he’s going to have a good size advantage.

the speed, power and counters will give moraes problems.

but who knows how a cut this low will affect him. That’s why I backed off his line

 

[Crimp_Keeper]

This thread was way more chill when y’all were making fun of my round 1 Colby/RDA/Usman analysis.

a MOD is needed to make Sherdog great again. There was one, EZ who would control shit, keep the talks mostly on the fights and ban people for multiple accounts.

While some of this stuff can be entertaining whether we want to admit it or not, sometimes it goes to far and gets old quickly.

Some have gotten into it with others here way more than others, some have gotten into it with a few people, I am guilty of that myself, mostly with a certain poster lol but that's besides the fact.

But at the end of the day we all need to remember we are SUPPOSE to be here to help each other and bounce ideas off each other, see different points of views you may have missed and most important beat the bookies and take advantage of any generous lines they may give us.

Not using tunnel vision on your thoughts like you're coming here to educate people. Not to tail, you don't learn shit about the sport or feel good about yourself if you are just tailing a ton. Not to always bicker back and forth. Not to brag about unit sizes, we were all small fish at one point. Not to use sherdog as a place to become a tout and get people to pay for your picks. But at the end of the day people will do what they want.

I for one think they should just close the official bets threads, that only grows ego's and opens the door for people to tail. And it's easy to lie on top of that about your pre bets and live bets you may have won or lost on. "Hey I won 1u live betting on a match, lost 2u on another fight live betting but sherdog doesn't need to know that, I will only mention what I won live betting." "If I hedge on a fight live betting, I won't mention it ate up some of my profit hedging. If my hedge won and saved my initial pre bet, I will mention I hedged and didn't lose money in the end so I still look good to sherdog peeps" It's easy to spin shit.

It's us against the bookies not each other! Just learn to ignore, and there is many to ignore in here! Keep the opinions you respect in small circle and ignore the rest!

Part of learning to bet is learning who to tail and when to fade though. That allows you to study on your own why certain people came to that conclusion. Maybe studying tape works for some, but studying bets is also another way to learn. Official bet threads needs to remain. They also serve as a great tool to track your bets publicly so people can see how you do before and afterwards. Obviously people lie, but IMO, it’s easy to spot. If you have above average intelligence to see who is legit and who is not. I agree with the first half of your post though. People need to stop talking so much disrespectful nonsense because we’re suppose to help each other.

You can still learn from a dude who bets the opposite of you without needing to be a dick to anyone about it. I’m pretty new here and some of you are cool and some of you had a rough childhood and I just want you to know,

 

[Miguel de Sade]

Well, I can say Aldo is no stranger to horrible weight cuts and if he’s not affected too much he’s going to have a good size advantage.

the speed, power and counters will give moraes problems.

but who knows how a cut this low will affect him. That’s why I backed off his line

I'm an Aldo fan but am a little surprised more people aren't hammering Moraes at current odds based on what we've seen of Aldo's cut so far. Hoping he makes it out of the fight without being brutally flatlined. That being said, laying my $ on Moraes.

 

[mkess101]

Ugh I suck and thought I'd have a bunch of time Saturday to finish watching tape and posting...now I'm freaking hoping to be home in time to catch most of the prelims. Gonna give thoughts now because tomorrow I'll have zero time and now Saturday looks f'd too. Not that this is groundbreaking insight, but it's...at least another guy who's had success betting MMA lending some thoughts.

Colby/Usman: O/U and FGD probably cash but are appropriately juiced. ML...dog or pass but would lean pass, Colby finishing Usman super unlikely. Only play I'd consider is Colby dec +298. I think this could be a ton of wall n stall both ways for 3 rounds. Likely the kind of fight that's tough to judge. I think Usman has a good gas tank, but Colby just understands how important output is in the judges eyes and his gas tank is elite. I don't favor Colby, but I think he has a reasonable chance to win a decision here.

Max/Volk: Only bet I like is Volk NSC at +160. Volk has showed a granite chin and the willingness to throw power shots as counters. Max is gonna pressure and I think opportunities will be there for Volk to throw heat and try to catch Max. ML seems **about** right to me. Max is durable AF too, but I think the likelihood of either guy stopping the other is somewhat close to even. Max dec is the most likely outcome imo, but IF there's a stoppage I like Volk's chances as much as Max's.

GDR/Nunes: I'd play o2.5 at + odds, and even a small stab at FGTD at +240. Nunes doesn't force things. She's patient, and GDR will likely try to play a distance kickboxing game. Maybe Amanda catches her at some point, but I really think this fight sees the championship rounds. GDR is super tough to take down, so she can keep it standing I think and avoid Nunes sub game. There's always risk with how Amanda hits, but at + odds I'd take a shot.

I was gonna try to get into tape on other fights, but that shit isn't happening now. My work Christmas party tomorrow night, stuff going on almost all day Sat...ugh. I'll leave with this one last thought (and maybe someone has already brought this up):

In Ben Saunders last 7 losses, SIX have been in round 2. Could it be coincidence? Sure. But more likely, it takes his opponents a round or so to figure out his length and awkward style. And when they do and they land anything solid at all, he crumbles. I mean...6 of 7??? Line isn't great at +350 but still...

That's all I've got. Way less than I hoped to post. Is what it is I guess.

 

[The Eagle]

Nobody is on Aldo at +185?

 

[Gugabe]

Ugh I suck and thought I'd have a bunch of time Saturday to finish watching tape and posting...now I'm freaking hoping to be home in time to catch most of the prelims. Gonna give thoughts now because tomorrow I'll have zero time and now Saturday looks f'd too. Not that this is groundbreaking insight, but it's...at least another guy who's had success betting MMA lending some thoughts.

Colby/Usman: O/U and FGD probably cash but are appropriately juiced. ML...dog or pass but would lean pass, Colby finishing Usman super unlikely. Only play I'd consider is Colby dec +298. I think this could be a ton of wall n stall both ways for 3 rounds. Likely the kind of fight that's tough to judge. I think Usman has a good gas tank, but Colby just understands how important output is in the judges eyes and his gas tank is elite. I don't favor Colby, but I think he has a reasonable chance to win a decision here.

Max/Volk: Only bet I like is Volk NSC at +160. Volk has showed a granite chin and the willingness to throw power shots as counters. Max is gonna pressure and I think opportunities will be there for Volk to throw heat and try to catch Max. ML seems **about** right to me. Max is durable AF too, but I think the likelihood of either guy stopping the other is somewhat close to even. Max dec is the most likely outcome imo, but IF there's a stoppage I like Volk's chances as much as Max's.

GDR/Nunes: I'd play o2.5 at + odds, and even a small stab at FGTD at +240. Nunes doesn't force things. She's patient, and GDR will likely try to play a distance kickboxing game. Maybe Amanda catches her at some point, but I really think this fight sees the championship rounds. GDR is super tough to take down, so she can keep it standing I think and avoid Nunes sub game. There's always risk with how Amanda hits, but at + odds I'd take a shot.

I was gonna try to get into tape on other fights, but that shit isn't happening now. My work Christmas party tomorrow night, stuff going on almost all day Sat...ugh. I'll leave with this one last thought (and maybe someone has already brought this up):

In Ben Saunders last 7 losses, SIX have been in round 2. Could it be coincidence? Sure. But more likely, it takes his opponents a round or so to figure out his length and awkward style. And when they do and they land anything solid at all, he crumbles. I mean...6 of 7??? Line isn't great at +350 but still...

That's all I've got. Way less than I hoped to post. Is what it is I guess.

Way I see Saunders is that it's essentially a glass cannon fight and I believe it'd be a lot closer to evens if Brown had been fighting

 

[Soccer Steve]

Way I see Saunders is that it's essentially a glass cannon fight and I believe it'd be a lot closer to evens if Brown had been fighting

They should hang a 3 minute countdown clock over the ring and when time is up raise Niko Price up from under the canvas into the octagon...tethered by a chain of course. Gotta let there be some semblance of hope for the doomed.

 

[null]

With Aldo's crazy weigh cut to 135 pounds and both of these guys knowing how to finish I have to like the Aldo/Moraes Under 2½ -115.

 

[uwotm8]

Holly fuck those are some crazy good odds, thanks! I had bet on a Perry win but will double down on the decision for sure. Just bet with +850 odds!

Perry by dec + 900 @ Betfair sportsbook

 

[MMA4life23]

Usman via decision though could see KO/submission early. If this goes past 3, i'd think neither figher will have enough power to finish the other and no one will be thinking submission anymore so over whatever rounds I think would be another great choice.

Can't see Coby even being close in this fight considering he lost round 4 against a small RDA (a true LW) and was gassed that fight as well. he held a fatigued RDA against the wall with his mouth in his crotch and somehow won the last round. Lawler is way out of his prime and was ranked 11 when facing coby not to mention coming off an embarrassing defeat where trying to KO Ben (who quit cuz UFC was too hard for him). Usman's win over Edwards is more impressive than any other win of coby's career (outside common opponents)

 

[Sono07]

Not as bad as I expected but I'm still waiting on the scale. Aldo claims the cut was easy and he will be the first to weigh in. Bold play cotton let's see if it pays off.

 

[Doc R]

Liking Faber at +400. Yan underwhelming at times to have that line.

Hard not to root for Perry but I think Neal TKOs him early.

Don’t see max losing to Volk but maybe Max’s chin is cracked after the poirier beating. Doubt it but maybe. Good price on max.

Ben Saunders 100% gets finished.

Nunes EZ.

 

[benebox]

Not as bad as I expected but I'm still waiting on the scale. Aldo claims the cut was easy and he will be the first to weigh in. Bold play cotton let's see if it pays off.

Holly fuck, he dupped us.
Aldo decision at 9/2 isn't looking so bad right about now

 

[Sono07]

Holly fuck, he dupped us.
Aldo decision at 9/2 isn't looking so bad right about now

Might be worth a stab, I'm small on Moraes

 

[Monster Meat]

Mike perry decision at +690 seems pretty off to me.

yea I took that at fan duel at +900

 

[Sono07]

yea I took that at fan duel at +900

Good looking out. Had to take a stab at Perry NSC and that disrespectful decision line. I think people are underestimating him here.

 

[Monster Meat]

Good looking out. Had to take a stab at Perry NSC and that disrespectful decision line. I think people are underestimating him here.

yea for sure neal is hyped but perry has shown he is ultra tough with his nose getting exploded and still surviving to a decision. Odds are def off here.

 

[thehighking]

Kind of liking Usman here with more cardiEPO lmao. At least I don't see Colby being able to pressure or push him back like some of his opponents.
Wish Woodley hadn't had a stroke or something before that Usman bout though. Unless Usman really did just hurt him early, still he seems to pack enough muscle to pull off his high pace stall and brawl thing.

I think Woodley's problem in that fight was mental. It was just like the Rory Mcdonald fight, he was getting hit and taken down and it made him gunshy. If he fought with more aggression he would have had more success

 

[Oblivian]

I think Woodley's problem in that fight was mental. It was just like the Rory Mcdonald fight, he was getting hit and taken down and it made him gunshy. If he fought with more aggression he would have had more success

Unpopular opinion - Woodley is not as good as people think. I was on Usman in that fight. Woodley's big win is his split over Thompson who he also had a draw with. The Till win isn't looking as impressive in retrospect. Woodley/Gastelum was very close. I think he's a top fighter, but I think he's beatable by several guys. I think Colby beats Woodley. I think Masvidal beats Woodley. I think Leon Edwards beats Woodley. I think RDA/Woodley is close. Etc.

 

[LiquidNuke]

Liking Faber at +400. Yan underwhelming at times to have that line.

Hard not to root for Perry but I think Neal TKOs him early.

Don’t see max losing to Volk but maybe Max’s chin is cracked after the poirier beating. Doubt it but maybe. Good price on max.

Ben Saunders 100% gets finished.

Nunes EZ.

What makes you so confident that Neal stops Perry? Perry has never been finished by strikes and seems granite sturdy through and through...