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Nowhere in my post have i suggested that nor i was trying to compare Valentina's proven record over Barber. I was only mentioning that the odds for Valentina were to high.
UFC 247 Jones vs Reyes
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You guys realize there's an ignore function right?
I'm going to place 1u on Reyes for shits and gigs. I like his aggressiveness; I just hope he has worked on his cardio.
I'm going to place 1u on Reyes for shits and gigs. I like his aggressiveness; I just hope he has worked on his cardio.
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But she has 99% chance to win, odds are right. Reyes has a much bigger chance to pull the upset
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I don’t have the same feeling I did betting Chiesa, but I feel Jones will lose soon. It’s just a matter to whom and when but I’m willing to bet Reyes. Bookies are giving him a 20% chance of winning which is unreal.
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Think everyone should re-evaluate their lives over the weekend, stay off this forum and reconvene next week to see if its worth continuing. This forum used to actually contain decent analysis, but almost all of the legitimate bettors have taken to private chats because its unbearable these days.
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Yeah dude. Huge difference from even just a year ago. From the time I was lurking to now is even more than a night and day difference. Sad.
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Just seems like a terrible card for betting. The only bet I might be interested in is Chookagian
And I'll probably play that right after the weigh ins if I do.
Might take a stab at Ilir Latifi also.
A lot of people just got 4th degree burns from the last card with the Chiesa, and Roxy wins.
The hostility lately has really been putting me off from posting my takes.
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Latifi yes, chook waste of money
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Let's do some analysis for funsies. What a twist! Watched the last 5 of each fighter.
Mirsad Bektic vs Dan Ige
A good summary of Bektic to me would be, "more athletic than skillful". This is not to say he's terrible, but he doesn't really seem great anywhere. He is very fast, has good cardio, and he likes to apply pressure. His pressure and speed can make up for his lack of skill in some areas. His hand speed allows him to hit first, and he mixes in take downs with his striking well. He will come in throw a fast 1-2 and then immediately change levels for the take down, allowing him to catch people off guard. The way he applies pressure constantly leaves holes in his game. In the striking he has little to no head movement and leaves himself open to counter. In grappling he seems to be more focused on what he is doing, which is really his whole style. All offense, not too concerned about defense.
Ige looks a little more skilled all around. He has better striking and better striking defense, as in he actually appears to have some amount of striking defense compared to zero for Bektic. He is good off the bottom as far as looking for sweeps or to get up. He is good on top, but he has also been sloppy on the top here and there and given up his position a few times in different fights. He looks much improved over his last few fights since his loss to Arce. It seems like he has more power, but not one punch finishing power. Also, he has liked to play the counter striker in his last few fights.
We have not seen Ige have to deal with the kind of pressure or pace that Bektic puts out. So we can't be completely sure how he will handle it if Bektic comes out as aggressive as he classically has. Bektic has arguably fought tougher competition, but I believe a younger Ricardo Lamas would have won their fight. Bektic has the speed edge, and probably cardio. Bektic could overwhelm Ige, but I think the longer the fight goes it actually favors Ige due to Bektics style which leaves more openings. That is if Ige's cardio holds up to the pace. However, I think that Ige will handle the pressure fine and will at some point catch a very hittable Bektic then end up top with a good chance to finish. Bektic hasn't "dominated" anyone for a full fight and his opponents are always in the fight. Even when he is winning he is at above average risk.
I would also like to add that I do not think Bektic would hold up well being on the receiving end of pressure. If Ige came out like he did vs Mike Santiago and played Bektics game, he could potentially dominate Bektic. I don't think this happens, but just throwing it out there that we have seen it before from him and I think that style would do well against Bektic.
I think the odds are fine, but I would flip it. Ige -135 / Bektic +115.
I feel a club'n'sub here for Ige. I will bet ML, with maybe a small ITD or Round 2/3 bet. If I were to bet Bektic, then I think the value is on the Decision line as i think that's his most likely path to victory.
Mirsad Bektic vs Dan Ige
A good summary of Bektic to me would be, "more athletic than skillful". This is not to say he's terrible, but he doesn't really seem great anywhere. He is very fast, has good cardio, and he likes to apply pressure. His pressure and speed can make up for his lack of skill in some areas. His hand speed allows him to hit first, and he mixes in take downs with his striking well. He will come in throw a fast 1-2 and then immediately change levels for the take down, allowing him to catch people off guard. The way he applies pressure constantly leaves holes in his game. In the striking he has little to no head movement and leaves himself open to counter. In grappling he seems to be more focused on what he is doing, which is really his whole style. All offense, not too concerned about defense.
Ige looks a little more skilled all around. He has better striking and better striking defense, as in he actually appears to have some amount of striking defense compared to zero for Bektic. He is good off the bottom as far as looking for sweeps or to get up. He is good on top, but he has also been sloppy on the top here and there and given up his position a few times in different fights. He looks much improved over his last few fights since his loss to Arce. It seems like he has more power, but not one punch finishing power. Also, he has liked to play the counter striker in his last few fights.
We have not seen Ige have to deal with the kind of pressure or pace that Bektic puts out. So we can't be completely sure how he will handle it if Bektic comes out as aggressive as he classically has. Bektic has arguably fought tougher competition, but I believe a younger Ricardo Lamas would have won their fight. Bektic has the speed edge, and probably cardio. Bektic could overwhelm Ige, but I think the longer the fight goes it actually favors Ige due to Bektics style which leaves more openings. That is if Ige's cardio holds up to the pace. However, I think that Ige will handle the pressure fine and will at some point catch a very hittable Bektic then end up top with a good chance to finish. Bektic hasn't "dominated" anyone for a full fight and his opponents are always in the fight. Even when he is winning he is at above average risk.
I would also like to add that I do not think Bektic would hold up well being on the receiving end of pressure. If Ige came out like he did vs Mike Santiago and played Bektics game, he could potentially dominate Bektic. I don't think this happens, but just throwing it out there that we have seen it before from him and I think that style would do well against Bektic.
I think the odds are fine, but I would flip it. Ige -135 / Bektic +115.
I feel a club'n'sub here for Ige. I will bet ML, with maybe a small ITD or Round 2/3 bet. If I were to bet Bektic, then I think the value is on the Decision line as i think that's his most likely path to victory.
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the price is right for me to want to lay the scratch down.
Murphy had a great win in her last outing and I like that she goes for the clinch and takedowns.
She lost a split decision to Mcmann.
KGB is another PVZ IMO.
id rather lose money on Murphy than pay the price KGB is going for.
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What are peoples mind on Pilarte vs Newson and Ewell vs Martinez?
I usually side with the dogs, but i am kinda liking the favorites in this one. I was unimpressed with Pilarte in his first fight, but he still has a very big physical advantage over Newson, who did good in his debut, but mostly just "attended" the fight. Pilarte didnt look that convincing in his contender series fight, where he got rocked a couple of times.
Open for some discussion on these two fights.
I usually side with the dogs, but i am kinda liking the favorites in this one. I was unimpressed with Pilarte in his first fight, but he still has a very big physical advantage over Newson, who did good in his debut, but mostly just "attended" the fight. Pilarte didnt look that convincing in his contender series fight, where he got rocked a couple of times.
Open for some discussion on these two fights.
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I just don't see much pop to KGB's strikes. I think Murphy's tenaciousness is going to win the day. KGB's accuracy also looked pretty bad in the Calderwood fight.
Fk it, i just put 100 on Murphy.
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Appreciate the change-up. I disagree regarding Ige's bottom game though, he severely lacks get-ups which is a huge fault of his because, as you pointed out, he will get overzealous on top and often lose scrambles. He spent an entire round under Jordan Griffin, and really only won that fight because of Grifiin's own poor fight iq. He also got outscrambled and stuck on bottom for spurts against Aguilar who is mainly a striker. Bektic has far better wrestling and scrambling than both Griffin and Aguilar, enhanced by his athleticism and size. If Bektic plays it smart on the feet, doesn't exchange in the pocket and commits to a wrestling/scrambling heavy attack I think he wins this one pretty clearly. Ige has definitely improved, but will always be a pretty meat and potatoes kind of fighter. Bektic's chin is a concern, but unless he fights Ige's fight I don't think it gets checked here. I took some -120 for Bektic given the athleticism, size, scrambling, and speed advantages he possesses. Have to assume Firas has him coming in with a smart gameplan off a KO loss.
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Would take Newson +150, can't play his current line given height and reach disadvantages and his lack of output striking. Don't really have an interest in Pilarte as a fav though either.
Can't bet Ewell as a favorite until he shows some improvement in his ground game and ability to disrupt pressure. Martinez isn't a great wrestler or pressure fighter, but has shown some ability as a grappler and has a nice kicking game. Close fight, another pass for me.
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I thought I was going to be the only one on Bektic here. Everyone seems to love the play on Ige. I think Bektic wins the standup on the outside and I think he wins the takedown game. I think he can actually win the fight on top.
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Here's my take on the Valentina/Chookagian fight.
If you look through Chook's instagram it's pretty clear she is always training. Pretty much a constant camp for the last year. She eats well(Keto except for training days). Her movement on the pads is very good, and she looks sharp. I'm willing to bet her improvement since the Maia fight will be evident. She has very good cardio, and pace.
Valaentina on the other hand looks to be caught up in her own fame, and living the champions life, and if you go back 4W on her instagram she's looking bit chubby. Her last fight was 6M ago so she might be resting on her laurels a bit much. It appears her camp was only about 6W long...just enough to make weight.
We know Valentina is a very good striker but this match is 5 rounds, and I put a big question mark on her cardio. Chook has never been finished, and if she has improved then this match could be a decision win for Chookagian. Her improved game seems to coincide with the timing of her going Keto, and if anyone is familiar with that it can lead to huge improvements beyond just physical aspects.
I'm still on the fence but seriously considering a big play on Chookagian.
If you look through Chook's instagram it's pretty clear she is always training. Pretty much a constant camp for the last year. She eats well(Keto except for training days). Her movement on the pads is very good, and she looks sharp. I'm willing to bet her improvement since the Maia fight will be evident. She has very good cardio, and pace.
Valaentina on the other hand looks to be caught up in her own fame, and living the champions life, and if you go back 4W on her instagram she's looking bit chubby. Her last fight was 6M ago so she might be resting on her laurels a bit much. It appears her camp was only about 6W long...just enough to make weight.
We know Valentina is a very good striker but this match is 5 rounds, and I put a big question mark on her cardio. Chook has never been finished, and if she has improved then this match could be a decision win for Chookagian. Her improved game seems to coincide with the timing of her going Keto, and if anyone is familiar with that it can lead to huge improvements beyond just physical aspects.
I'm still on the fence but seriously considering a big play on Chookagian.
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Thanks for the reply. Just nice to talk fights.
These are good points, except that Bektic hasn't played it smart on the feet at all though that i saw. He has exchanged against every one of the opponents I watched. He tends to plant his feet throw in all of his standing exchanges with no guard or head movement at all. Bektic will win most of his fights the whole time right up until he loses. Like the Elkins fight.
If Bektic played it a little safer and was less reckless then I would also be on him, but he just isn't that guy. He has all of the right elements to win, but he always leaves a hole. He is flat out not the "play it smart" kind of guy. He could all the sudden change, but as of right now I didn't see one second of play smart or play safe.
Edit: Also, i'm not big on Ige. I don't think this is a domination in any way. Only playing small, and even in my analysis i think Bektic has a decent chance to win.
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That is definitely the worry and a reason I have this fight capped fairly close, with Bektic -150. IMO if he was known to fight smart he makes this look easy and likely wins a clear 30-27 pushing his wrestling.
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What makes you questions Valentina's cardio? She has gone five rounds on four different occasions. Once against the P4P best and most dangerous woman in the sport and another against a cardio and volume machine in JJ. Seem to be putting a lot of stock into Instagram and diets, but Val has always come into fights in top shape. She is a true professional and lives to fight.
Edit - Val was at UFC PI December 2nd and at TMT mid December, including a training photo on Christmas Eve. She looks extremely fit, as always and has had a full camp....
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