Not a fan of this card from a fan or betting perspective...
A ton filler fights with half the fighters that will never see a Top 10 ranking near their names.
I could see this card having a few of overs like the last one however. They’re mostly C ranked guys who will probably be competitive between eachother.
When in doubt, I just take the over. It’s fucking hard to get to the UFC and try to finish another competitor who trained 6-8 weeks just like you. Most won’t turtle up and give away a finish like you’d see on the regional scene.
Johns/Bautista o2.5 (-240ish)
Lower volume guys, I can see them clinching plenty. They’ve got some decisions on their records.
Ige/Mirsad o2.5 (-210ish)
I don’t think Mirsad will put Ige away and I know Mirsad is a bit shaky with his TKO losses but Ige will instinctively grapple even if he rocks Mirsad. The prob with Mirsad and why he gasses is because he’s so fuckin tense in there. He flexes from the opening bell to the end. He doesn’t know how to relax his muscles a bit and flow. But he’s also so damn retard-strong in there. I like the over.
Jones/Reyes o2.5 or 3.5?? (I’m guessing it’ll be o3.5 -110ish)
Jones off the sauce so he’ll be risk adverse. He’s might to neutralize and play it safe with Reyes til he gets a read on his distance/timing. Or he’ll work to get the clinch. Man I took Maretta by decision at like +2000 last time out and I really thought he coulda won that. I’m going to fuck around and take Reyes by dec +1200. Although if Reyes knocks him out I’d be happy he did. Anyways, Jones is the the lankiest mofo in the UFC and is very tactically sound when knowing how to win a UFC fight. I’ll be rooting for the dog.
Other spots:
I’ll take Morono -170 against a newcomer who seems to be a classically trained boxer from the little video I’ve seen. Morono has all the experience and he’s still young himself. Can see him winning by club n sub or decision.
Juan Adams I guess should win if he’s at an actual fight camp in New Mexico. All he has to do is come in good shape and work his way into some TDs and the fight is his. I doubt that Tafa guy will have anything off his back.
Black Beast I would never take as a huge fav but I do think he’ll be in trouble somewhere in this fight and then find his second wind and finds the KO against Queen Latifa.
Newcomer Journey Newson looked pretty good to me in his loss to Ramos. He seems to have a pretty good chin and he’s well rounded. He hustles to his feet well if he’s taken down and he looks pretty blacklethic. Pilarte seems like a dog too but man is he hittable for such a tall frame. I’ll take my chances with the +120 dog.
The rest of the card, I don’t have strong leans on. I’ll probably look to take my chances on some long decision odds for a select few.
Overall Thoughts:
