UFC 248 Adesanya vs Romero

Dathorn said:
What specifically are you saying is dumb about it?
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1. You're arguing the semantics of a known vs unknown fighter while simultaneously admitting that Zhang is not an unknown fighter.
2. You're saying that if you, Dathorn, a complete and total unknown (this doesn't exist anymore because well.. internet), were to fight a champ in any division whether male or female, that there is no value on betting against you. That's incorrect. I'd pound 100-1 against you with my entire roll.
3. You then say "there can be value in a known vs unknown" which completely negates your first sentence.

These are just 3 reasons but there's also the distinct possibility that I am just stoned enough to have missed sarcasm/irony etc in which case just ignore my post.
 
2020Tracked said:
You just repeated what I said... How can there be 'value' on JJ if Zhang is an unknown?
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IMO it depends on your betting strategy. Some people prefer to pass if they feel they don’t have enough information to accurately predict how a fight might go.

Personally, I’ve done well over the long term betting the more proven commodity, or fading the “hype”, at prices like we’re getting on this fight. There is obviously more risk involved in each single bet, but even if you win these types of bets at a lower percentage, you can still turn a solid profit long term. That might not work for everyone, but I can only speak from my personal experience.
 
TrueAscension said:
1. You're arguing the semantics of a known vs unknown fighter while simultaneously admitting that Zhang is not an unknown fighter.
2. You're saying that if you, Dathorn, a complete and total unknown (this doesn't exist anymore because well.. internet), were to fight a champ in any division whether male or female, that there is no value on betting against you. That's incorrect. I'd pound 100-1 against you with my entire roll.
3. You then say "there can be value in a known vs unknown" which completely negates your first sentence.

These are just 3 reasons but there's also the distinct possibility that I am just stoned enough to have missed sarcasm/irony etc in which case just ignore my post.
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You're misreading it. The first segment is to set up the flawed logic of the other person i am replying to. That's why i put spacing between that which I was arguing against and then my actual point. I guess that wasn't clear enough. I am saying exactly what you're saying. There is value in betting against me. Just because I am unknown does not remove the ability and knowledge of whatever champ in question. The previous person is saying, "Someone is unknown, so theres no value. You can't bet on JJ." I am attempting to prove there can absolutely be value there. I'm not commenting on the fight, just the flawed steps in logic.

I apologize for the initial segment not being clearly separated as the point before my counterpoint. The post/discussion I am replying to has context in my post.
 
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t6p said:
IMO it depends on your betting strategy. Some people prefer to pass if they feel they don’t have enough information to accurately predict how a fight might go.

Personally, I’ve done well over the long term betting the more proven commodity, or fading the “hype”, at prices like we’re getting on this fight. There is obviously more risk involved in each single bet, but even if you win these types of bets a lower percentage, you can still turn a solid profit long term. That might not work for everyone, but I can only speak from my personal experience.
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You don't see a difference between the "hype" of a Johnny Walker or highly juiced unproven fighters and a UFC champ? I agree with fading hype against proven fighters which is why I'm fading Winn at the moment. That said Zhang is not unproven. She's a champ.
 
Lol not unknown as in nobody knows her. There are unknowns about her like her cardio going into the 4th and 5th etc etc...
 
phased1 said:
Lol not unknown as in nobody knows her. There are unknowns about her like her cardio going into the 4th and 5th etc etc...
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Here's an unknown for ya. How well can JJ absorb a couple shots from Weili?
 
TrueAscension said:
You don't see a difference between the "hype" of a Johnny Walker or highly juiced unproven fighters and a UFC champ? I agree with fading hype against proven fighters which is why I'm fading Winn at the moment. That said Zhang is not unproven. She's a champ.
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Has Zhang ever had to deal with a good jab?
Has she ever shown the ability to cut off a cage?
Has she ever gone 5 rounds?
Has she ever fought a good striker who's taller than her?

She's the champ, but she's also filled with questions which have yet to be answered. I rarely bet on sports, but you can bet I'm taking a hard pass on this one.
 
TrueAscension said:
You don't see a difference between the "hype" of a Johnny Walker or highly juiced unproven fighters and a UFC champ? I agree with fading hype against proven fighters which is why I'm fading Winn at the moment. That said Zhang is not unproven. She's a champ.
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Being champion 4 fights into your UFC career doesn’t mean they’re can’t still be some unknowns. We haven’t seen Zhang in the championship rounds, we haven’t seen her face a striker near Joanna’s level and we’ve only really seen her against 1 fighter who I would consider elite in the division in a fight which lasted less than a minute. Belts also mean nothing when it comes to stylistic matchups. Zhang could end up making this look easy, and it wouldn’t surprise me at all. A bet on Joanna is a risk, but it’s the type of bet that has won me money long term, as I explained.

And fwiw, Anderson vs Walker was one of my biggest wins of 2019. I get what you’re saying about Walker and Zhang being different circumstances but in the end, at least in my opinion, the same betting principles apply.
 
t6p said:
Being champion 4 fights into your UFC career doesn’t mean they’re can’t still be some unknowns. We haven’t seen Zhang in the championship rounds, we haven’t seen her face a striker near Joanna’s level and we’ve only really seen her against 1 fighter who I would consider elite in the division in a fight which lasted less than a minute. Belts also mean nothing when it comes to stylistic matchups. Zhang could end up making this look easy, and it wouldn’t surprise me at all. A bet on Joanna is a risk, but it’s the type of bet that has won me money long term, as I explained.

And fwiw, Anderson vs Walker was one of my biggest wins of 2019. I get what you’re saying about Walker and Zhang being different circumstances but in the end, at least in my opinion, the same betting principles apply.
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Also the whole 'Zhang's power' thing is a bit suspect. Andrade, as I keep saying, has been knocked down in the first round or hurt badly a bunch of times. Tecia Torres managed it, and she's hardly prime Mike Tyson. Zhang's got 3 career standing KOs, and not too many knockdowns past that. Most of which are by headkicks or knees, and I don't think she's getting the positional dominance to just MT-clinch KO a fresh Joanna.

Is it possible that Zhang's just an above-average hitter who clubbed Andrade early, and not actually the second coming of Amanda Nunes?
 
That's kind of my my point, 'it's possible that Zhang's just an above-average hitter who clubbed Andrade early', that is possible.. It's possible she is the 'real deal'. We don't know.

Saying there is 'value' on JJ is just the wrong way of wording it. How can there be value on her when you don't know the value of Zhang? Just because there is a tasty underdog line on JJ doesn't mean there is value.

Betting either JJ or Zhang is a semi-informed punt.

I don't think JJ betters are 'sharp' if she wins, they're lucky.
 
2020Tracked said:
That's kind of my my point, 'it's possible that Zhang's just an above-average hitter who clubbed Andrade early', that is possible.. It's possible she is the 'real deal'. We don't know.

Saying there is 'value' on JJ is just the wrong way of wording it. How can there be value on her when you don't know the value of Zhang? Just because there is a tasty underdog line on JJ doesn't mean there is value.

Betting either JJ or Zhang is a semi-informed punt.

I don't think JJ betters are 'sharp' if she wins, they're lucky.
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MMA betting's always going to have a large element of steering into chaos. The longest UFC career is about 6 hours over the course of a decade, and even Frankie Edgar had a bunch of fights where he'd suddenly debut new skills or show new limitations that hadn't existed in the prior 5 hours.

Torres-Zhang is probably the only really relevant tape on her for this. Andrade fight was 90% her teeing off on a compromised Andrade. I felt that Zhang had some real struggles with Torres as the fight went deeper, especially as she seemed pretty sloppy with her takedowns and committed to muscling them. She also slowed down dramatically standing by the midpoint of R3 before she forced the TD that consolidated the win.

We've got hours of Joanna styling on elite competition for the division. She's prettymuch the known variable here. And as she's almost at +200 territory it's a matter of 'Do I think that there is a 66% chance that Zhang's true depth of game is better than Joanna's'. I don't think there's any evidence to support that kind of confidence. MMA Betting's inherently a play into the unknown. We've seen guys randomly completely change their game from tape, or suddenly lose all durability, in the course of a 4 month break between fights.

Something like Adams-Tafa for instance. If Adams had done his usual gameplan of 'jab once or twice, go for single leg' he probably looks like a -500. Instead he decided that he's now a Travis Browne tribute band and came out in a completely different stance, with completely different shot selection, to anything that he'd shown in his past career.

I mean if there's a big unknown factor, wouldn't the sharp play be to go with the dog? Especially if the dog's the one that's proven an elite skillset and abilities, whilst Zhang's really still kinda burgeoning.
 
LiquidNuke said:
Am I foolish for really liking Viana ITD at +200 against a very compromised looking Whitmire, who's hot garbage even not off a bad weight cut....
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I waited to see Emily at the ceremonial weigh-in and she looked substantially better and recovered from the early weigh-ins. And because I think she's a better fighter and is now an underdog, I bet Whitmire in this case.
 
TrueAscension said:
20 wins - complete and total unknown
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Oh, and don't forget that her KO victory vs Andrade means absolutely nothing. Apparently Andrade slipped on a banana peel & Weili just got lucky.
 
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