UFC 263: ISRAEL ADESANYA vs MARVIN VETTORI - Official discussion

[2020Tracked]

Officially discuss it

 

[svmr_db]

https://www.bestfightodds.com/events/ufc-263-adesanya-vs-vettori-2-2115

 

[guesswhoseback]

Felip-Dec
Frevola-Dec
Ziam-Dec
Rosa-Dec
Kianzid-Dec
Stewart-Dec
Hooper-SUb2
Calderwood-Dec
Evolev-Dec
Riddell-Dec
Craif-Sub2
Maia-Dec
Edwards-Dec
Fig-KO2
Adseayana-Dec

 

[mkess101]

Line is too wide for Izzy vs Vettori imo. Marvin has become a top tier grappler. He won a round vs Izzy the first time by getting him down and controlling him for a good stretch. He's not as big as Jan so might not be quite as easy for him to get it done but I still think he's absolutely capable of it. You also have any mystique that Izzy had gone. Even though it was at LHW, everyone still saw it.

Marvin +235 has value.

 

[FimbulFightPicks]

Line is too wide for Izzy vs Vettori imo. Marvin has become a top tier grappler. He won a round vs Izzy the first time by getting him down and controlling him for a good stretch. He's not as big as Jan so might not be quite as easy for him to get it done but I still think he's absolutely capable of it. You also have any mystique that Izzy had gone. Even though it was at LHW, everyone still saw it.

Marvin +235 has value.

How would you cap the fight? +150 for Vettori or so?
I think Vettori looked like crap vs Holland, and I bet him. If he shows up like that he won´t beat Izzy. So I hope his body is fully recovered, as there is no question about his motivation. I´m not sure how good it is that he already gets this fight, i´m not convinced he´s at his full 100%. We may see Izzy making a statement after the last Jan fight, but overall it does feel off a bit, and we´ve seen that when that mystique is gone, it means a lot for their opponents confidence, and obv the gameplan is even more obvious now than before.

The lack of get up game from Izzy is a huge conf boost for Vettori bettors though, that made it look like Vettori just needs to get Izzy down and thats a wrap for that round, and given that Vettori is tough and durable, and possibly may catch a second wind like he did vs Herm, it´s def a winable matchup for him.

 

[mkess101]

How would you cap the fight? +150 for Vettori or so?
I think Vettori looked like crap vs Holland, and I bet him. If he shows up like that he won´t beat Izzy. So I hope his body is fully recovered, as there is no question about his motivation. I´m not sure how good it is that he already gets this fight, i´m not convinced he´s at his full 100%. We may see Izzy making a statement after the last Jan fight, but overall it does feel off a bit, and we´ve seen that when that mystique is gone, it means a lot for their opponents confidence, and obv the gameplan is even more obvious now than before.

The lack of get up game from Izzy is a huge conf boost for Vettori bettors though, that made it look like Vettori just needs to get Izzy down and thats a wrap for that round, and given that Vettori is tough and durable, and possibly may catch a second wind like he did vs Herm, it´s def a winable matchup for him.

I'd cap Vettori +150ish yeah. Maybe as high as +175 but damn sure not over +200.

Holland is a weird guy to fight. Goofed off vs Brunson but looked to actually be trying vs Vettori.

And yeah Izzy having no clue how to get up is where the value comes from. Accepting bottom vs an elite grappler like Vettori has become loses rounds. Vettori's also a guy who's figured out how to push through even when exhausted. I like backing dogs that can do that. If it's 2-2 heading into the 5th and both guys are tired, I trust Vettori's ability to doggedly pursue and get a TD more than Izzy's ability to avoid it.

 

[Oblivian]

I actually favor Vettori.

 

[FimbulFightPicks]

I'd cap Vettori +150ish yeah. Maybe as high as +175 but damn sure not over +200.

Holland is a weird guy to fight. Goofed off vs Brunson but looked to actually be trying vs Vettori.

And yeah Izzy having no clue how to get up is where the value comes from. Accepting bottom vs an elite grappler like Vettori has become loses rounds. Vettori's also a guy who's figured out how to push through even when exhausted. I like backing dogs that can do that. If it's 2-2 heading into the 5th and both guys are tired, I trust Vettori's ability to doggedly pursue and get a TD more than Izzy's ability to avoid it.

Good stuff. I agree. Great point about pushing through when tired, that is a very underrated aspect. I´ve seen several sharps on Vettori so far, seems like a fairly popular dog pick. I think he´ll shorten to at least around +180 or so. Dont think the +200 will stay.

A vettori dec line will also be interesting to look at, it´d be nice if it´d be +400.

 

[mkess101]

I actually favor Vettori.

Wow really? I can't go that far but I hold your opinion in high regard so that makes me feel good about my chances on this one haha:

 

[Dooze]

Not sure but I might like Peterson against Hooper at these odds. Hooper will need to get it down for any chance of winning but his takedowns are poor - if Peterson can sprawl and brawl it should be his fight to lose.

Dober standing should piece Riddell up but Riddell seems to have decent grappling and Drew's TDD isn't elite. Assume Riddell will be looking for takedowns often, might have to look into it more to see if he's likely to get them. Drew isn't too good off his back so would be a concern if he does get taken down.

Maia I think is done at this point - he obviously needs to get takedowns to win this. Belal should be able to avoid getting taken down in the clinch and beat Maia up to a decision win - obviously gets interesting if Maia can get a take down but I think Belal should be able to avoid it at this stage in their careers.

 

[mkess101]

Not sure but I might like Peterson against Hooper at these odds. Hooper will need to get it down for any chance of winning but his takedowns are poor - if Peterson can sprawl and brawl it should be his fight to lose.

Dober standing should piece Riddell up but Riddell seems to have decent grappling and Drew's TDD isn't elite. Assume Riddell will be looking for takedowns often, might have to look into it more to see if he's likely to get them. Drew isn't too good off his back so would be a concern if he does get taken down.

Maia I think is done at this point - he obviously needs to get takedowns to win this. Belal should be able to avoid getting taken down in the clinch and beat Maia up to a decision win - obviously gets interesting if Maia can get a take down but I think Belal should be able to avoid it at this stage in their careers.

Trying to remember Drew's TDD prior to the fight with Islam. You can honestly toss that one aside, Islam is on another level completely with his grappling and getting guys to the mat than Riddell (or maybe anyone else at LW now that Khabib is done).

 

[Oblivian]

Wow really? I can't go that far but I hold your opinion in high regard so that makes me feel good about my chances on this one haha:

View attachment 857598

I think Izzy is overrated honestly. We saw that with his odds against Jan. We know where his weaknesses are, and honestly, Vettori has shown improvements in those exact areas. I see Vettori putting a pace on Izzy too and just constantly making him defend takedowns and being stuck in clinch work. Honestly, I wouldn't rule out a Vettori finish either.

 

[Black Paladin]

I think Izzy is overrated honestly. We saw that with his odds against Jan. We know where his weaknesses are, and honestly, Vettori has shown improvements in those exact areas. I see Vettori putting a pace on Izzy too and just constantly making him defend takedowns and being stuck in clinch work. Honestly, I wouldn't rule out a Vettori finish either.

The implied odds for Israel are about 71%. Leaving about three out of ten for Vettori. If you think Vettori actually beats his ass four or more times out of ten, then that's when you go for it.

 

[mkess101]

The implied odds for Israel are about 71%. Leaving about three out of ten for Vettori. If you think Vettori actually beats his ass four or more times out of ten, then that's when you go for it.

Well I hope this time Vettori does it haha. I've got that above parlay, wouldn't mind cashing that. $20 for about $500.

 

[ballsackarino]

Izzy Vettori takes places in the 30 foot cage. Haven't watched must tape but these are my initial thoughts. Izzy has great first level takedown defence and great footwork.

Vettori doesn't have a great shot. He walks forward and tries to grab you. I think that's an issue if his gameplan is to wrestle consistently. He looked like a deer in the headlights standing with Holland. I don't think Vettori will be able to land many takedowns and if he does I think it will be against the cage, where Izzy has shown to have decent get ups. Vettori is also significantly outranged. I don't think he can consistently wrestle enough to win.

I think people's bias against Izzy (for being annoying outside the cage or just being good) combined with his last fight where Jan Blachowicz timed some great opportune takedowns combined with their first fight being split. I feel Izzy has improved a lot since their first fight, a lot more than Vettori has.

 

[ballsackarino]

I like Ridell at dog money.

I got Anders early line at 1.86 simply because they fought only a few months ago and that fight was not a pick em. But it is Eryk Anders and he's untrustworthy so he probably gets knocked out. Small bet.

Somebody tell me a how Craig beats Jamahal Hill? On the feet its not even close. Somehow wins by meme sub? I feel they are rewarding Jamahal for getting past OSP and are trying to build him up now.

 

[RobinHoodMoneyBags]

This event gonna be a banger!!!

A lot of people are already expecting Marvin to go for takedowns. I think Marvin and his team feel the same. Izzy and his team know Marvin will likely try and take Izzy down because that’s the only path for Marvin to win imo.

As of right now I give the edge to Izzy. If Marvin can go for takedowns from start to finish he’ll take this. Izzy’s team ain’t stupid, they know Marvin’s camp will work heavily on getting this fight to the mat. Izzy’s striking compare to Marvin is night and day...

Marvin ain’t knocking out Izzy, so we can cross that out.

I’ll wait after Rosenstruik vs Sakai to look into this event.

 

[mkess101]

Izzy Vettori takes places in the 30 foot cage. Haven't watched must tape but these are my initial thoughts. Izzy has great first level takedown defence and great footwork.

Vettori doesn't have a great shot. He walks forward and tries to grab you. I think that's an issue if his gameplan is to wrestle consistently. He looked like a deer in the headlights standing with Holland. I don't think Vettori will be able to land many takedowns and if he does I think it will be against the cage, where Izzy has shown to have decent get ups. Vettori is also significantly outranged. I don't think he can consistently wrestle enough to win.

I think people's bias against Izzy (for being annoying outside the cage or just being good) combined with his last fight where Jan Blachowicz timed some great opportune takedowns combined with their first fight being split. I feel Izzy has improved a lot since their first fight, a lot more than Vettori has.

I think Vettori's ability to get the fight to the mat is a bit better than you're giving credit for. It's not elite, don't get me wrong. He's not prime GSP blasting doubles or Makachaev tossing guys on their heads like they're kids...but his timing isn't bad and he's shown some ability to chain things together in order to finish off TD's.

I do think it's possible there's a lot of clinch work along the cage. There's also the psychology of what Jan did to Izzy. Being ragdolled and controlled like that...it's possible that affects how freely he lets his strikes go. Esp if Vettori does land one TD early and keeps Izzy down. That **could** lead to Izzy becoming much less dangerous standing as he focuses simply on not being taken down.

 

[Dooze]

Somebody tell me a how Craig beats Jamahal Hill? On the feet its not even close. Somehow wins by meme sub? I feel they are rewarding Jamahal for getting past OSP and are trying to build him up now.

Think his path to victory is the same as usual really - make it a dogfight, survive a couple of hairy moments on the feet and get through on grit, wear the other guy down and probably snag a choke. I don't think it's likely and he likely gets put out in the first, but if he survives long enough to get Hill down it could get interesting given how opportunistic he is as a finisher. I don't see it, but if I was going to bet Craig it'd have to be ITD.

 

[DonQ94]

Not sure but I might like Peterson against Hooper at these odds. Hooper will need to get it down for any chance of winning but his takedowns are poor - if Peterson can sprawl and brawl it should be his fight to lose.

Dober standing should piece Riddell up but Riddell seems to have decent grappling and Drew's TDD isn't elite. Assume Riddell will be looking for takedowns often, might have to look into it more to see if he's likely to get them. Drew isn't too good off his back so would be a concern if he does get taken down.

Maia I think is done at this point - he obviously needs to get takedowns to win this. Belal should be able to avoid getting taken down in the clinch and beat Maia up to a decision win - obviously gets interesting if Maia can get a take down but I think Belal should be able to avoid it at this stage in their careers.

You really think Dober is gonna piece Riddell up on the feet? I consider the latter to be more refined, particularly his jab and with potentially better cardio. Don't think grappling comes into play. Seems like a good spot for Riddell as a dog.