UFC 265: Lewis vs Gane - Discussion Thread

I think Chiesa might even sub Luque. I gave him big change vs Magny if he fought wise with as little standup as possible. But Magny is crafty and smart. Luque is tough but does not shy from taking risks and changes to go for broke. Might open up for RNC if exhaustion hits hard.
 
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When did luque become the second coming of wanderlei Silva?

I like luque and all but this is not a favorable matchup for him.
 
Starting to think Aldo at near evens is pretty insane value. I always like to see how he looks at weigh ins and he looked fine. He's faster, sharper, stronger, hits harder, better technique everywhere. Only worry is that you can basically guarantee he'll fade in the 3rd and make you shit yourself for a few minutes.
 

Fox bet. Stabbed it for 20, it's the same odds as him winning by omaplata lol

I think he can get that or an arm triangle. "Triangle" is +4000, which I'd imagine encompasses arm triangle/triangle, but I'm not sure

Edit: proof if anyone doubts it. Only managed to get +1200 sub though, it was +1500 yesterday.
 

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XociDe said:
Starting to think Aldo at near evens is pretty insane value. I always like to see how he looks at weigh ins and he looked fine. He's faster, sharper, stronger, hits harder, better technique everywhere. Only worry is that you can basically guarantee he'll fade in the 3rd and make you shit yourself for a few minutes.
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He lost the 2nd round to Vera, Munhoz puts on a faster pace than Vera does and doesn't have the same vulnerabilities to takedowns. If Aldo tries to go for takedowns in the 3rd while tired he runs a risk of the guillotine. For Jose to win he needs to look better than he did last time out or get the finish early, and Munhoz is pretty damn durable.
 
Gambling Man said:
He lost the 2nd round to Vera, Munhoz puts on a faster pace than Vera does and doesn't have the same vulnerabilities to takedowns. If Aldo tries to go for takedowns in the 3rd while tired he runs a risk of the guillotine. For Jose to win he needs to look better than he did last time out or get the finish early, and Munhoz is pretty damn durable.
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I'd be pretty shocked if Aldo of 2021 finishes a guy as durable as Munhoz. I do think Aldo winning a decision is the most likely outcome, but a Munhoz finish is far more likely than an Aldo finish imo. Which is why I think the ML is actually kind of **about** right.
 
*Manel Kape (129) vs. Ode Osbourne (125)

*Kape missed the flyweight limit by three pounds and will forfeit 20% of his purse to Osbourne. The fight will proceed as scheduled.

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Has anyone mentioned Kape/Osbourne ITD? Osbourne's been to one decision in his entire UFC career. Although Kape's UFC career has been decisions, he was largely a finisher prior to this. I mean Pantoja has never been finished and he had Nicolau pretty buzzed too. I also think Kape is going to try to avoid decisions after those first two. I'd definitely favor this to end ITD by quite a bit and it's near even.
 
You guys reckon Munoz, Johns and Menifield are the safest favorites on the card? Seems like those fights, and Fiziev/Green perhaps, are the easiest to predict on paper I think.

Johns is a little better than Anderson everywhere, even if he slows down mid-fight and starts leaving big openings for his opponent.

Simmons I don't know much about besides the fact that he's gotten finished by the best fighters he's faced so far, he is coming down a weight class and Johnny is dirty enough to get DQ'd/NC'd going off his fight against Maness.

Herman has largely gotten by his toughness amd craftyness against younger folk in his last two, but Rodriguez had him dead to rights if not for a bogus low blow call, and Menifield is both a little more polished and dangerous than slow Mike imo.
 
Oblivian said:
Has anyone mentioned Kape/Osbourne ITD? Osbourne's been to one decision in his entire UFC career. Although Kape's UFC career has been decisions, he was largely a finisher prior to this. I mean Pantoja has never been finished and he had Nicolau pretty buzzed too. I also think Kape is going to try to avoid decisions after those first two. I'd definitely favor this to end ITD by quite a bit and it's near even.
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Manel's output is pretty bad, but I do have him scoring a finish. That being said this could be the case of a bigger guy bringing durability with him to a lower weight class.

Honestly, I was compelled to steer clear from the fight after Manel blew his weight. Ode is raw, but Kape is inconsistent. Don't think Osbourne would find a finish so you'd pretty much be hoping Kape pulls his head out of his ass after two fights that he gave away
 
Thesnake101 said:
You guys reckon Munoz, Johns and Menifield are the safest favorites on the card? Seems like those fights, and Fiziev/Green perhaps, are the easiest to predict on paper I think.

Johns is a little better than Anderson everywhere, even if he slows down mid-fight and starts leaving big openings for his opponent.

Simmons I don't know much about besides the fact that he's gotten finished by the best fighters he's faced so far, he is coming down a weight class and Johnny is dirty enough to get DQ'd/NC'd going off his fight against Maness.

Herman has largely gotten by his toughness amd craftyness against younger folk in his last two, but Rodriguez had him dead to rights if not for a bogus low blow call, and Menifield is both a little more polished and dangerous than slow Mike imo.
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I don't like Johns at that price. I think it would be a sweat. He's got strong wrestling, but he doesn't keep guys down long. I can see him needing consistent takedowns, getting into some firefights standing, and also possibly leaving his neck out.
 
Oblivian said:
I don't like Johns at that price. I think it would be a sweat. He's got strong wrestling, but he doesn't keep guys down long. I can see him needing consistent takedowns, getting into some firefights standing, and also possibly leaving his neck out.
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Yeah, him engaging Dos Santos on the feet for longer than I'd like will probably happen, but I think Anderson is right around the ball park of guys Miles has been able to grind before. Might be underrating him a bit, but Anderson also reliying on his own wrestling game makes me think he'll give the fight away.
 
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