UFC 265: Lewis vs Gane - Discussion Thread

Think Chiesa is the side, see a 50/50 match up but Chiesa's path is probably more reliable, one takedown could secure him the round. I think the striking will be in no way competitive but I trust Chiesa to know his path is grapple early and grapple constantly. Looking into Luque and he doesn't have great takedown defence and he's fought mostly strikers to this point. Both men gas as the fight goes on, but again I prefer to be on the side of the wrestler/grappler in a gas on gas match up.
 
my first pick, Vince Morales. +125

Amateur boxing background, well balanced, a win on Zahibi who in turn beat Drako.mma math I know, Vince is in the vicinity to beat Drako.
 
Doggo_Stat_Collector said:
my first pick, Vince Morales. +125

Amateur boxing background, well balanced, a win on Zahibi who in turn beat Drako.mma math I know, Vince is in the vicinity to beat Drako.
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He's 1-4 in the UFC, on 2 fight losing streak. Plus zahabi isn't that good. He was telegraphing the shit out of it, even Rogan called it. Missed it, tried it again and again and got him.
 
Noel Wards said:
He's 1-4 in the UFC, on 2 fight losing streak. Plus zahabi isn't that good. He was telegraphing the shit out of it, even Rogan called it. Missed it, tried it again and again and got him.
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most of his fights(besides his last) were close and competitive. One you can argue was a robbery vs Benito. He is not top tier, But Drako is very unproven and showed he could not even last a round with Zahabi. Vince has more kos professionally and overall has knocked out better tier opponents. Power is on his side, he has 2 knock downs in the ufc, he can crack.

edit the odds makers dropped the odds down from 120+ to -110

They caught on to this thread.
 
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TrueAscension said:
Feel like the play on Luque/Chiesa is the over tbh
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I haven't seen odds yet so I'm not saying you're wrong, but assuming there's any juice on o2.5, I'd rather have Chiesa with the + next to him.

It's hard for me to see Luque winning a decision. Mike's striking is too shitty and Luque is too aggressive to not find a KO if Mike can't dominate him with grappling. If the over hits, I think it's VERY likely because Mike has smothered Luque the whole time.
 
I think Kape should be favourite but should Osbourn really be +200?
 
2020Tracked said:
I think Kape should be favourite but should Osbourn really be +200?
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Osbourne is jumping from 145 to 125 in the span of 6 months. Thats super fadeable, especially against a legit fighter like Kape.
 
Since i had no plays on last week's fight card i already have a few bets in mind for UFC 265.

I really do think Gane gets it done and early. Lewis has no ground game. I do see the potential of a possible early sub to finish Lewis so for the main event i already have Gane problary by sub with a hedge play.

These are my bets for now.
Johnny Munoz
Ode Osbourne
Menifield
Gane.
 
joenewbie said:
I used to like Karolina Kowalkiewicz and had high hopes for her but dang she has been on a downward slide. I bet on her (once) against Felice Herrig and that was a nail biter. A loss here and it might be time to retire.
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Penne is quite awful so if Karolina loses she def is done
 
GoldenWolf87 said:
Since i had no plays on last week's fight card i already have a few bets in mind for UFC 265.

I really do think Gane gets it done and early. Lewis has no ground game. I do see the potential of a possible early sub to finish Lewis so for the main event i already have Gane problary by sub with a hedge play.

These are my bets for now.
Johnny Munoz
Ode Osbourne
Menifield
Gane.
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Lewis is the baddest blue belt in the entire state of Texas.
 
Doggo_Stat_Collector said:
most of his fights(besides his last) were close and competitive. One you can argue was a robbery vs Benito. He is not top tier, But Drako is very unproven and showed he could not even last a round with Zahabi. Vince has more kos professionally and overall has knocked out better tier opponents. Power is on his side, he has 2 knock downs in the ufc, he can crack.

edit the odds makers dropped the odds down from 120+ to -110

They caught on to this thread.
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Good luck, I obviously haven't followed his career closely. Just his record so far throwing me red flags.
 
Gane sub line at +1000 is outrageous to me, Lewis isn't that hard to takedown and he's very susceptible on the ground. Gane has an assortment of subs he could attack Lewis with, he's high iq and not stupid like oleynik holding on to a scarf hold forever.
 
Kamais_Ookin said:
Gane sub line at +1000 is outrageous to me, Lewis isn't that hard to takedown and he's very susceptible on the ground. Gane has an assortment of subs he could attack Lewis with, he's high iq and not stupid like oleynik holding on to a scarf hold forever.
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Gane has submitted low level guys, higher in the rankings he used his striking nonstop. Lewis has decent get-ups, the only heavyweight to keep him there in a while was an Olympic wrestler cormier.
 
Chiesa down to +105 in my main book. Last chance to get Chiesa at + odds
 
Noel Wards said:
Gane has submitted low level guys, higher in the rankings he used his striking nonstop. Lewis has decent get-ups, the only heavyweight to keep him there in a while was an Olympic wrestler cormier.
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This. And I don’t think Gane wants to risk going for a TD after what happened to Blades. No need to get close to Beast’s power when he can hit and be gone from range
 
HockeyBjj said:
Chiesa down to +105 in my main book. Last chance to get Chiesa at + odds
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Australians don't really watch MMA so Chiesa is still +210 for me <Moves>

I feel pretty comfortable making Chiesa & Gane decision win bets. They both haven't finished anyone in a while.
 
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