UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2

[Post 2 Decision]

Hawes beats him 9 times out of 10 i'd say.

This fight is a lot closer to 50/50 than it is 90/10

Hawes is severely overrated, Curtis is severely underrated

 

[Post 2 Decision]

Bobby Green kind of has to be the side just based on Al at his best vs Green at his best is still a close fight, but now we have a very active Green looking the best he ever has taking on an Al who hasn't fought in 2 years, was getting wrecked before he left and seems to have lost all interest in fighting.

Plus Al got his face jabbed off by Khabib and Green's jab is way more educated.

Al basically plods forward and leads with his face, seems like a recipe for getting smacked up

I predict that Green wins the fight but Iaquinta wins the judges the decision...

 

[Main_Card_MMA]

I like parlays too, they're fun and I crush with them. Adding -300 favorites to parlays is stupid.

Oh for sure, but betting on most of a card in a single play is stupid. It's a $10-20 lotto ticket. I'd never play real money with more than 3 legs. I just don't feel good about any other lines in that fight.

Edit: unless there's value on that line. If the line should be -500 then why not add it? Parlays allow you to reduce risk exposure by betting less overall. I'm fine with adding a -300 to a 2 leg parlay and betting it small.

 

[Post 2 Decision]

Colby decision +500 is insane.

I think Usman wins again, but I had Colby up in the first fight 3-1, tied 2-2 at worst, going into the 5th. Usman got hurt by the body kick and claimed it was a low blow, too.

 

[Deleted member 510399]

Which book, aside from mybookie has BKFC lines? Sorry I know it's not related to this card, but I need to find out.

 

[Post 2 Decision]

Which book, aside from mybookie has BKFC lines? Sorry I know it's not related to this card, but I need to find out.

Put a million dollars on Morgan over Johnson if you find one lol

 

[carolinagrapple]

Put a million dollars on Morgan over Johnson if you find one lol

Betonline.ag does but not for that particular fight.

 

[Jae Gibbz]

Not saying Green doesn't deserve to be a favorite against anyone but, he is someone I do NOT trust betting on as a favorite. Always in a bunch of close fights and usually fights down to the level of his competition. Makes fights closer than they have to be

 

[mkess101]

Not saying Green doesn't deserve to be a favorite against anyone but, he is someone I do NOT trust betting on as a favorite. Always in a bunch of close fights and usually fights down to the level of his competition. Makes fights closer than they have to be

It's a fair point, but watching Al block punches with his face for legit FORTY straight minutes over his last two fights is enough for me to strongly favor Green. What you're saying is true, it really is. But I almost feel like Green won't be able to help but land one punch after another on Al.

 

[Captain Chesapeake]

Madison square garden is going to be electric tomorrow night. I expect a lot of finishes

Bet the unders in main and co main and usman ko +150 as well as rose itd +225 and sub +650

Villante and Edgar are basically hometown guys. I expect them both to get the win. Edgar Dec +200 always value. Villante Dec +250 Do I trust villantes cardio? No but Barnett is a can with no cardio either.

Billy q at nearly +180 and his tko prop +rd 3 is nice.

shahbazyan Dec +325. He’s a wrestler now

chandler Dec +525. Can see him taking down gaethje and controlling him.

I line over/unders more than anything in this card, which is a bit odd for me. Ode/vegara under 2.5 -175. Hawes/Curtis probably goes under, villante and barnertt over but I dont wanna pay the juice. Over 1.5 for pereira/michailidis but fdngtd and pereira late finish. Edgar/Vera over 2.5 -185

 

[Card]

Melsik Baghdasaryan (145.4) vs. Bruno Souza (148.4)
Ode Osbourne (125.2) vs. CJ Vergara (127.4)

** Souza misses featherweight by 2.4 pounds
*** Vergara misses flyweight by 1.4 pounds

 

[Card]

 

[Captain Chesapeake]

Zhang trying to copy roses cut

Villante looking flabby and sick

 

[mkess101]

I guess someone has to say it...this card is

STACKED

 

[Jae Gibbz]

It's a fair point, but watching Al block punches with his face for legit FORTY straight minutes over his last two fights is enough for me to strongly favor Green. What you're saying is true, it really is. But I almost feel like Green won't be able to help but land one punch after another on Al.

Don't disagree with anything you said. Not saying Green won't win the fight or shouldn't be favored, but like I said - he is someone I do NOT trust betting on as a favorite

 

[joenewbie]

Bet the unders in main and co main and usman ko +150 as well as rose itd +225 and sub +650

I line over/unders more than anything in this card, which is a bit odd for me.

Agreed. I took U3.5 for +120 on the main event and U4.5 for -110 for the co main.

 

[Captain Chesapeake]

Doing some late taping

vergara seems live to me. Very heavy hands. Pressure fighter. Yea he takes a lot of punches but has a good chin and cardio and is relentless and that could give ode problems.

He switches stances a lot and that can be tricky for guys who don’t see it a lot. He caught Jacob Silva that way switching stances into a left hook. His left has power from the orthodox hook and the southpaw straight. Can be a bit predictable

Ode has faster hands and is more athletic. He should be able to land some hard straight counter punches when vegara crashes.

I expect a finish and think there’s value on the under and vegara ko, probably early rounds

Bahgdasaryan has blazing fast kicks. Very dangerous early in the fight. Throws at full power and fades as the fight progresses. Still Carries his power though. Physically strong and should have an advantage if he wants to cage press and clinch

Souza is a karate fighter out of the machida school. Doesn’t have a lot of power and more importantly isn’t nearly as evasive as your typical karate fighter. He stays in the pocket too long with his hands down

should be a kick heavy fight at the range Souza likes to stay in. Not ideal against a kickboxer with elite kicks

line feels wide but I’m not sure I want to back Souza here. His Dec line is +500. Some value there. He will likely drop the first round and there will be good live odds on him. Think the over under being reasonably priced says bettors are concerned that souzas style could make this a slower more calculated striking match

 

[Chris Baynham]

This fight is a lot closer to 50/50 than it is 90/10

Hawes is severely overrated, Curtis is severely underrated

I guess we'll see soon enough.
I've not seen Curtis since 2019 in PFL and he was barely an average journeyman at welterweight.

 

[cpgm]

For US bettors, what site do you use to livebet mma? I used 5dimes in the past, and wanted to know about other potential sites. Does Bovada do livebettin on mma?

 

[Post 2 Decision]

I guess we'll see soon enough.
I've not seen Curtis since 2019 in PFL and he was barely an average journeyman at welterweight.

I'm predicting Hawes to win, but there's definite value on Curtis. Hawes will use his wrestling to grind out a win if he's smart, but he can tire himself out and I wouldn't be surprised to see Curtis finish him or take a close decision. He needs to stick to welterweight after this, though.