UFC 282: Prochazka vs. Teixeira 2, Saturday, December 10

Is Lungiambula really THAT bad that Edmen should be -350 against him??? Edmen started out looking like a striking prodigy but his lack of grappling skills and mediocre cardio were exposed starting with the Brunson fight. Don't get me wrong, he should be favored here but this line seems way too wide. Lungiambula isn't good, probably a fringe guy to be on the roster but Edmen probably isn't any better than a middle of the pack 185'er and him being this big a favorite I just don't get.
 
mkess101 said:
Is Lungiambula really THAT bad that Edmen should be -350 against him??? Edmen started out looking like a striking prodigy but his lack of grappling skills and mediocre cardio were exposed starting with the Brunson fight. Don't get me wrong, he should be favored here but this line seems way too wide. Lungiambula isn't good, probably a fringe guy to be on the roster but Edmen probably isn't any better than a middle of the pack 185'er and him being this big a favorite I just don't get.
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If Edemen still trains with Edmond he shouldn't be that big of a favorite vs anyone especially on a three fight losing streak. He is way better fighter and the upside is still there but I question where his head is atm. Good that he had a "healthy" layoff to fix things though. That might help.
 
Pure wikicapping here...I've never seen either guy fight but Koslow sub +650? He's 6-0 and every win is by sub in rd 1. And 2 of his 3 ammy fights were sub wins too. Yes, it looks like they are all against cans LOL but IF dude is gonna pull the upset it stands to reason it's because he finds a way to do what he's always done, right? Like...why would someone play his ML at +255 when you know that his PTV is almost surely to get it to the mat and find a sub? Rd 1 sub is +850 so imo not enough added value to the sub line but point is both are better than his ML by far imo.
 
IIRC Rosas Jr is the closest thing I've seen to Bryce Mitchell in terms of style. Interesting he makes his debut on the same card with Thugnasty. Props for Rosas kinda suck, neither decision or sub are juicy enough to play imo. Probably a small bit of value on his ML but even that is minimal. He should cruise with his grappling, pace, and cardio but -250...meh.
 
mkess101 said:
Sorry guys, I'm not sold on Du Plessis necessarily being great but I really don't get why people think Till is much more than a top tier journeyman.

If not for the robbery vs Wonderboy, he'd be 1-5 in his last 6 fights with the only win over an utterly disinterested Gastelum. Yes Till has fought good competition during that streak but if we're giving him credit for that, we also should look at how utterly lackluster his competition was prior to his title shot (where he got destroyed). I would actually go so far as to say he has one truly good win on his resume' and that's Gastelum (who again looked like he didn't want to be there, but that's nitpicking--Till looked pretty good regardless). Cerrone was tiny compared to Till and past his prime and the rest of his wins...well...look for yourselves.

Till got a ton of hype because he was a British guy who hadn't lost and was fully capable of knocking out mid to bottom tier UFC welterweights. He killed himself to make 170 to do it, but a lot of guys do that. He's a decent striker without much ground game at all, that's it. Those thinking he should be favored here or that he has massive value, I just don't see it.
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For a start, the Wonderboy fight was not a robbery. It was a close fight. Fights are judged round to round but Till landed a knockdown and had the most significant moments throughout the fight. It could have gone either way though. And Wonderboy is one of the best strikers we have seen in MMA.

He went to a razor close decision with Whittaker who was/is the second best MW on the planet. He showed a lot in that fight.

That's why people give Till credit. He has proven himself against elite level competition. Even if he didn't get the W, he is on that level. I don't see how anyone can watch the Wonderboy/Gastelum/Whittaker fights and think Till is not a very high level fighter.

Judging him on the Brunson fight is absurd (whoever said that). Anyone trying to claim a W because they picked Brunson is cringe. I'd still pick a healthy Till over Brunson 10/10 times. He was at about 40% in that fight and still nearly finished Brunson. He literally had tits and no knee. He looked so bad on the ground at the end because he was exhausted.

Till's biggest problem is his fragile body. He openly admits that he puts himself through hell in training. He thinks this is a good thing but it has obviously rekt his career. He can't stay healthy.

I have no doubt that a fully in-shape Till is a top level MW. You just can't trust him to be healthy. I'm pretty sure he has needed knee surgery for about 4 years.
 
I'm big on Till here

i dont know why he's the underdog, Dricus looks slow as fuck to me, has no offensive wrestling and no head movement with his head perfectly cranked forward to be countered. Yeah Till was overrated but this is a MASSIVE step down in competition. Till is so much faster, if he can't beat Dricus i think Till should resign.
 
Quick shit picks again for main card:
-Ankalaev all the way. Unless Jan has some kind of weird obsession only winning fights as underdog lol. Ank seems super smart I don't think he gives rounds away on inactivity. It ain't he most exciting fight style but he will do enough. I'll go dec.
-Gordon probably the best fighter Paddy has fought so far but I don't think he has balls enough to use all his skills to play the spoiler. Crowd will go crazy for this and everyone expects chaos. I think Gordon will play along only to get finished when Paddy gets going. Lets say second round sub again like vs Leavitt.
-Santiago-Morono kinda random fight for main card but probably exciting stuff again. Ponzi by split dec my pick but could go either way.
-DDP stylistically good fight for Till. He will bring the aggression, get countered and won't let Till overthink it. Overall I don't think he is tactical enough to bother Till too much. It isn't a coincidence that Darren gave Rob his hardest fight since Izzy. Against a fellow (mostly striker) I expect Till to roll.
-I'm too biased for Bryce to call this fight neutrally but it could go truly either way. We might even see multiple momentum swings until all is said and done. I just think Bryce too weird and too dumb to tap and too tough to get knocked out. And I like his cardio in this one. Topuria might have the second wind and sprawl skill of a lion but I say he falls on scorecards.
 
mkess101 said:
Is Lungiambula really THAT bad that Edmen should be -350 against him??? Edmen started out looking like a striking prodigy but his lack of grappling skills and mediocre cardio were exposed starting with the Brunson fight. Don't get me wrong, he should be favored here but this line seems way too wide. Lungiambula isn't good, probably a fringe guy to be on the roster but Edmen probably isn't any better than a middle of the pack 185'er and him being this big a favorite I just don't get.
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I think my issue with Dalcha is that they're both first round fighters, but Edmen is the better guy early. Edmen might well start slowing down if he can't get him out of there, but I think Dalcha will slow down badly too.
 
mkess101 said:
IIRC Rosas Jr is the closest thing I've seen to Bryce Mitchell in terms of style. Interesting he makes his debut on the same card with Thugnasty. Props for Rosas kinda suck, neither decision or sub are juicy enough to play imo. Probably a small bit of value on his ML but even that is minimal. He should cruise with his grappling, pace, and cardio but -250...meh.
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I like the KO line. I think Perrin is probably savvy enough to avoid a sub, but a mercy stoppage from a lot of GNP is possible imo. Think there's value at 8.0
 
I think the Hernandez will actually look like the favorite in this one. There’s a massive athletic gulf between the two. There was the same narrative in the Tucker x Quarantillo fight about how Tucker would gas and Quarantillo would finish him late. The Carlyle is also worth remembering. Hernandez DEC @4,00 is worth a sprinkle.
 
Macaque said:
I think the Hernandez will actually look like the favorite in this one. There’s a massive athletic gulf between the two. There was the same narrative in the Tucker x Quarantillo fight about how Tucker would gas and Quarantillo would finish him late. The Carlyle is also worth remembering. Hernandez DEC @4,00 is worth a sprinkle.
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The Hernandez falls apart under pressure and the Billy q does nothing but pressure

I don’t think the Hernandez and the tucker are in the same category
 
XociDe said:
For a start, the Wonderboy fight was not a robbery. It was a close fight. Fights are judged round to round but Till landed a knockdown and had the most significant moments throughout the fight. It could have gone either way though. And Wonderboy is one of the best strikers we have seen in MMA.

He went to a razor close decision with Whittaker who was/is the second best MW on the planet. He showed a lot in that fight.

That's why people give Till credit. He has proven himself against elite level competition. Even if he didn't get the W, he is on that level. I don't see how anyone can watch the Wonderboy/Gastelum/Whittaker fights and think Till is not a very high level fighter.

Judging him on the Brunson fight is absurd (whoever said that). Anyone trying to claim a W because they picked Brunson is cringe. I'd still pick a healthy Till over Brunson 10/10 times. He was at about 40% in that fight and still nearly finished Brunson. He literally had tits and no knee. He looked so bad on the ground at the end because he was exhausted.

Till's biggest problem is his fragile body. He openly admits that he puts himself through hell in training. He thinks this is a good thing but it has obviously rekt his career. He can't stay healthy.

I have no doubt that a fully in-shape Till is a top level MW. You just can't trust him to be healthy. I'm pretty sure he has needed knee surgery for about 4 years.
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I will give him credit for looking pretty good vs Whitaker, that's fair. He's **capable** of looking like a high level striker at times, also fair. Maybe it is health, IDK but he's looked lackluster at least as much as he's looked good, if not more.

Till should not have beaten WB. I don't use "robbery" too often, but it was one to me. Not the worst I've ever seen, but pretty bad.

upload_2022-12-10_12-26-49.png

I understand media scorecards aren't the be-all-end-all, but 21 for Wonderboy and 3 for Till is pretty damn lopsided. Esp when half of those who gave it to Wonderboy only gave Till ONE ROUND.
 
Hellowhosthat said:
I like the KO line. I think Perrin is probably savvy enough to avoid a sub, but a mercy stoppage from a lot of GNP is possible imo. Think there's value at 8.0
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Yeah might be the way to go. In his last DWCS fight he was really more about keeping position than landing meaningful gnp but that's just one fight. He's active, don't get me wrong, he just has a saavy about position and how much it matters that is WAY beyond his years. To be that young and understand how important it is to be on top is impressive. Even when he was swept he didn't accept bottom, he worked and grinded and figured out ways to get back on top. His cardio was top tier too. Kid could end up being really special given his age.
 
mkess101 said:
I will give him credit for looking pretty good vs Whitaker, that's fair. He's **capable** of looking like a high level striker at times, also fair. Maybe it is health, IDK but he's looked lackluster at least as much as he's looked good, if not more.

Till should not have beaten WB. I don't use "robbery" too often, but it was one to me. Not the worst I've ever seen, but pretty bad.

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I understand media scorecards aren't the be-all-end-all, but 21 for Wonderboy and 3 for Till is pretty damn lopsided. Esp when half of those who gave it to Wonderboy only gave Till ONE ROUND.
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It was one of those fights where most of the rounds were extremely close and could have gone either way, so even if some people had it 4-1, it doesn't really tell the whole story. I wouldn't have been mad if Wonderboy got the decision.

Having said all that, I could see Dricus just try and wrestle and grind Till against the cage for 3 rounds with his superior size and strength. I think that will be his gameplan, and he might pull it off. It all depends on whether Till has enough anti-wrestling to keep some distance and land as Dricus wades in like a sloppy drunk. The good news is that we get to find out soon.
 
mkess101 said:
Pure wikicapping here...I've never seen either guy fight but Koslow sub +650? He's 6-0 and every win is by sub in rd 1. And 2 of his 3 ammy fights were sub wins too. Yes, it looks like they are all against cans LOL but IF dude is gonna pull the upset it stands to reason it's because he finds a way to do what he's always done, right? Like...why would someone play his ML at +255 when you know that his PTV is almost surely to get it to the mat and find a sub? Rd 1 sub is +850 so imo not enough added value to the sub line but point is both are better than his ML by far imo.
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I’m taking a stab at his sub line and rd 1 sub +1200

he looks pretty slick on the ground. 10th planet brown belt. If he gets saimann down I doubt saimann has grappled anyone near his level. If he can’t, he’s getting pieced up on the feet.
His takedowns are decent enough. It’s just entering that worries me. He keeps his hands quite low.
 
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