UFC 292: Aljamain Sterling vs. Sean O'Malley, Boston, August 19

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UFC 292: Aljamain Sterling vs. Sean O'Malley

Boston, Massachusetts, August 19, 2023

Saturday 08.19.2023 at 06:30 PM ET

U.S. Broadcast: Pay Per View | Prelims: ESPN

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https://www.tapology.com/fightcenter/events/101022-ufc-292
https://www.tapology.com/forum/threads/73765
https://twitter.com/search?q=#UFC292&src=typed_query&f=live

Aljamain Sterling opened -220, now -270

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Aljamain “Funk Master” Sterling, the Longo-Weidman MMA product and Long Island native, headlines UFC 292. Sterling is a well-rounded fighter who combines athleticism, strong fundamentals, and excellent game plans into an exceptionally successful fighter. Sterling’s background is in freestyle wrestling and his skills translate smoothly into the cage. He regularly shoots takedowns, often timing them as counter shots to opponents who overextend with their strikes, and drives his hips until he finds the canvas, just like he would if he were wearing a singlet. Once on the mat, Sterling has evolved from a wrestler who can hold top control to a truly lethal grappler and jiu-jitsu player. He has a black belt with a variety of submissions and one of the best body locks in the UFC. Sterling is fluid on the mat when he transitions and strong when holding position. On the feet, “Aljo’s” striking, unsurprisingly given his head coach is Ray Longo, has grown exponentially as well. He began his career as an off-beat striker, representing the funk in his nickname well, who relied on natural athleticism to find success on the feet. As he’s progressed, Aljo has kept the funk and off-beat style of his striking but has added excellent timing and technique. Sterling lands his own strikes consistently and with a high degree of accuracy while his athletic and funky footwork makes it challenging for opponents to clip him cleanly. The only issue in Sterling’s game is his takedown defense. Additionally, he can be controlled on the mat while he looks for defensive submissions. Aljamain Sterling is a well-rounded bantamweight with notes of elite attributes and impressive size, yet, one of the most underappreciated champions of recent memory. The root cause originated in his first bout against Petr Yan, where many believed Yan was winning until throwing a deliberate, illegal knee against Sterling. While Sterling went on to defeat Yan in a rematch and had a dominating performance against the injured TJ Dillashaw, many still disrespect his elite fighting ability and reign over arguably the best division in the UFC. The benefit of being disrespected is training and fighting with a chip on one’s shoulder, and Sterling has allowed this disrespect to fuel him as evidenced by him looking better each fight. This improvement is a scary proposition because he is already one of the best grapplers in the division, seamlessly blending his collegiate wrestling background with an elite submission game. The wrestling of Sterling will be a pivotal point of analysis in this fight given his background is at the DIII level where he was a two-time All-American. He could have been a DI talent, and most recently, has found success against the renowned talent, Bravo-Young, in a grappling bout where he lost in freestyle but submitted the two-time DI National Champion. From a positive lens, Sterling strikes with a funk and athleticism that is tricky early, and at this point, he can land sharp strikes with elbows and knees accompanied by lengthy punches.

"Suga" Sean O’Malley is a high-level boxer. Sean O’Malley moves linearly and laterally with fluidity and intelligence. His stance switching ability, rhythmic movement, and physically long frame make him very difficult to hit cleanly. This is a problem for many opponents because while O’Malley is challenging to hit clean, he typically has no problem landing clean on his own. O’Malley’s hands might be the best in the division, purely from a boxing perspective. He has a lightning quick jab, from either stance, an ability to throw combinations from awkward angles, and a straight cross that can land on the button and turn the lights out in an instant. His boxing is as impressive as it is vicious. While, offensively, O’Malley is one of the best boxers in the division and defensively his footwork is top-tier as well, he is not without flaw on the feet. O’Malley is infamous for his thin legs and inability to take or check a leg kick. This flaw has been overblown, but is still a concern for “Suga.” His footwork, stance switching, lateral movement, and overall striking intelligence, all combine to create a mobile target difficult to hit. But, if an opponent can land a leg kick, O’Malley has shown that it can damage him physically and limit his mobility significantly. “Suga’s” wrestling is almost exclusively defensive. Because is striking is such levels above most competition, O’Malley does everything possible to keep the fight standing. His mobility makes timing shots a challenge, his length allows him to create a wide base and create a post that is hard to drive down, and the timing on his knee strikes makes shooting from distance a dangerous proposition. Sugar Sean O’Malley is perhaps one of the most self-aware and intelligent fighters on the roster. Beyond the mental understanding of distance and range, O’Malley’s intelligence shines through outside the octagon, as he is the best self-promoter not named Conor McGregor the UFC perhaps has ever seen. Sugar uses his naturally large frame and elite footwork to keep the distance in the octagon and piece his opponent up from the outside. What is interesting for him is that while other fighters point fight from range, he looks to end the night quite quickly and can do so given the end of punch power he has is perhaps unmatched in the bantamweight division. Knowing that Sugar likes to fight far away, where he can land his elite boxing from the outside, opponents often look to slow the movement and then grapple. The on-paper method of defeating Sean O’Malley is there, as his movement allows his elite boxing to find success, and while he is competent on the mat, he is far from elite, especially when compared to the elite of the division.

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A clown is headlining a pay per view lol

Aljamain Sterling's last fight ever at 135 pounds, said Aljamain in June 2023
 
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Without doing any real analysis, there are a two dogs that stick out.

Lemos. Weili is good, but I have been pretty impressed by Lemos lately. She should be strong enough to hang with Weili. Line feels wide. Close fight imo.

Munhoz. Vera low output vs Munhoz high output. Kinda like Munhoz by decision in this one. Will be the first fight I look at more in depth.
 
UFC 292: Aljamain Sterling vs. Sean O'Malley

Boston, Massachusetts, August 19, 2023

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https://www.tapology.com/fightcenter/events/101022-ufc-292
https://www.tapology.com/forum/threads/73765
https://twitter.com/search?q=#UFC292&src=typed_query&f=live

Aljamain Sterling opened -220, now -270

View attachment 986724

Aljamain “Funk Master” Sterling, the Longo-Weidman MMA product and Long Island native, headlines UFC 292. Sterling is a well-rounded fighter who combines athleticism, strong fundamentals, and excellent game plans into an exceptionally successful fighter. Sterling’s background is in freestyle wrestling and his skills translate smoothly into the cage. He regularly shoots takedowns, often timing them as counter shots to opponents who overextend with their strikes, and drives his hips until he finds the canvas, just like he would if he were wearing a singlet. Once on the mat, Sterling has evolved from a wrestler who can hold top control to a truly lethal grappler and jiu-jitsu player. He has a black belt with a variety of submissions and one of the best body locks in the UFC. Sterling is fluid on the mat when he transitions and strong when holding position. On the feet, “Aljo’s” striking, unsurprisingly given his head coach is Ray Longo, has grown exponentially as well. He began his career as an off-beat striker, representing the funk in his nickname well, who relied on natural athleticism to find success on the feet. As he’s progressed, Aljo has kept the funk and off-beat style of his striking but has added excellent timing and technique. Sterling lands his own strikes consistently and with a high degree of accuracy while his athletic and funky footwork makes it challenging for opponents to clip him cleanly. The only issue in Sterling’s game is his takedown defense. Additionally, he can be controlled on the mat while he looks for defensive submissions. Aljamain Sterling is a well-rounded bantamweight with notes of elite attributes and impressive size, yet, one of the most underappreciated champions of recent memory. The root cause originated in his first bout against Petr Yan, where many believed Yan was winning until throwing a deliberate, illegal knee against Sterling. While Sterling went on to defeat Yan in a rematch and had a dominating performance against the injured TJ Dillashaw, many still disrespect his elite fighting ability and reign over arguably the best division in the UFC. The benefit of being disrespected is training and fighting with a chip on one’s shoulder, and Sterling has allowed this disrespect to fuel him as evidenced by him looking better each fight. This improvement is a scary proposition because he is already one of the best grapplers in the division, seamlessly blending his collegiate wrestling background with an elite submission game. The wrestling of Sterling will be a pivotal point of analysis in this fight given his background is at the DIII level where he was a two-time All-American. He could have been a DI talent, and most recently, has found success against the renowned talent, Bravo-Young, in a grappling bout where he lost in freestyle but submitted the two-time DI National Champion. From a positive lens, Sterling strikes with a funk and athleticism that is tricky early, and at this point, he can land sharp strikes with elbows and knees accompanied by lengthy punches.

"Suga" Sean O’Malley is a high-level boxer. Sean O’Malley moves linearly and laterally with fluidity and intelligence. His stance switching ability, rhythmic movement, and physically long frame make him very difficult to hit cleanly. This is a problem for many opponents because while O’Malley is challenging to hit clean, he typically has no problem landing clean on his own. O’Malley’s hands might be the best in the division, purely from a boxing perspective. He has a lightning quick jab, from either stance, an ability to throw combinations from awkward angles, and a straight cross that can land on the button and turn the lights out in an instant. His boxing is as impressive as it is vicious. While, offensively, O’Malley is one of the best boxers in the division and defensively his footwork is top-tier as well, he is not without flaw on the feet. O’Malley is infamous for his thin legs and inability to take or check a leg kick. This flaw has been overblown, but is still a concern for “Suga.” His footwork, stance switching, lateral movement, and overall striking intelligence, all combine to create a mobile target difficult to hit. But, if an opponent can land a leg kick, O’Malley has shown that it can damage him physically and limit his mobility significantly. “Suga’s” wrestling is almost exclusively defensive. Because is striking is such levels above most competition, O’Malley does everything possible to keep the fight standing. His mobility makes timing shots a challenge, his length allows him to create a wide base and create a post that is hard to drive down, and the timing on his knee strikes makes shooting from distance a dangerous proposition. Sugar Sean O’Malley is perhaps one of the most self-aware and intelligent fighters on the roster. Beyond the mental understanding of distance and range, O’Malley’s intelligence shines through outside the octagon, as he is the best self-promoter not named Conor McGregor the UFC perhaps has ever seen. Sugar uses his naturally large frame and elite footwork to keep the distance in the octagon and piece his opponent up from the outside. What is interesting for him is that while other fighters point fight from range, he looks to end the night quite quickly and can do so given the end of punch power he has is perhaps unmatched in the bantamweight division. Knowing that Sugar likes to fight far away, where he can land his elite boxing from the outside, opponents often look to slow the movement and then grapple. The on-paper method of defeating Sean O’Malley is there, as his movement allows his elite boxing to find success, and while he is competent on the mat, he is far from elite, especially when compared to the elite of the division.

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vs
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A clown is headlining a pay per view lol

Aljamain Sterling's last fight ever at 135 pounds, said Aljamain in June 2023
Stopped reading after this. Lol C'mon man!
"While, offensively, O’Malley is one of the best boxers in the division and defensively his footwork is top-tier as well"
 
Stopped reading after this. Lol C'mon man!
"While, offensively, O’Malley is one of the best boxers in the division and defensively his footwork is top-tier as well"

Is it wrong though? Striking wise is the way he made into this title fight as well. Dunno how many bws Id pick vs him in a stand up fight. Aside from Yan.
 
Put a big bet on Brad Tavaras @-260.
Typically I try to stay away from betting favourites this big but I just can't see a world where Chris comes back in good fighting shape.
I honestly can't remember the last time he looked good (Vitor or Rockhold?)... even in his last win against Omari I remember him looking slow and sluggish and barely squeezed by a win.
Now after a serious leg injury with multiple setbacks along the way and at 39 years old and haven't fought in a long time. I gotta believe that fighting again at this stage was more of a personal goal then anything else for Chris. A goal for him to keep him motivated to continue this long ass rehab that he's been doing. He must be so washed at this stage. I think Chris comes back for this one fight, gets beat and then retires.

Brad is of course not a world beater, but he is still an active fighter that is fighting against guys in the mid to top of the division. He is losing to these guys but he is at times making it pretty competitive.
Even though Brad has been knocked out, I really don't see Chris knocking him out. That would be a freak KO in that case. I also find it very hard to believe that Chris would Sub him, so that leaves a lay n pray decision. With all the time off and the age and the way he has been looking in his last fights I don't think Chris will have the cardio or strength to pull that off.

I know this is not a hot take, but I actually think there is pretty good value on Brad even at these odds.
 
Put a big bet on Brad Tavaras @-260.
Typically I try to stay away from betting favourites this big but I just can't see a world where Chris comes back in good fighting shape.
I honestly can't remember the last time he looked good (Vitor or Rockhold?)... even in his last win against Omari I remember him looking slow and sluggish and barely squeezed by a win.
Now after a serious leg injury with multiple setbacks along the way and at 39 years old and haven't fought in a long time. I gotta believe that fighting again at this stage was more of a personal goal then anything else for Chris. A goal for him to keep him motivated to continue this long ass rehab that he's been doing. He must be so washed at this stage. I think Chris comes back for this one fight, gets beat and then retires.

Brad is of course not a world beater, but he is still an active fighter that is fighting against guys in the mid to top of the division. He is losing to these guys but he is at times making it pretty competitive.
Even though Brad has been knocked out, I really don't see Chris knocking him out. That would be a freak KO in that case. I also find it very hard to believe that Chris would Sub him, so that leaves a lay n pray decision. With all the time off and the age and the way he has been looking in his last fights I don't think Chris will have the cardio or strength to pull that off.

I know this is not a hot take, but I actually think there is pretty good value on Brad even at these odds.

agree 100% …. Mouthbreathing Weidman will gas and get KOd if he doesn’t get KOd before gassing…. Either way it ends with Tavares inside the disntance for better value
 
Anyone taking a stab on Cody at that price?
 




Two close fights. On a rewatch Yan-O'Malley wasn't the one sided Yan win that I remembered.
 




Two close fights. On a rewatch Yan-O'Malley wasn't the one sided Yan win that I remembered.

No it wasn't at all. Watching live it was a clear yan win but upon rewatch I agree with O'malley winning. Had a lot of money on Yan too
 
No it wasn't at all. Watching live it was a clear yan win but upon rewatch I agree with O'malley winning. Had a lot of money on Yan too

I had some on O'Malley and thought it was the biggest robbery in the universe. Heat of the moment can affect perception.
 
The Vera-Munhoz line is wild. I imagine Vera stalks forward and gets chopped down by Munhoz's leg kicks and hooks...and then keeps coming and keeps getting chopped. A 5-rounder, maybe...in a 3-rounder, this looks like one of the better value bets of the year. Not sure what Marlon's path to victory is that is deserving of him being a heavy favorite.
 
The Vera-Munhoz line is wild. I imagine Vera stalks forward and gets chopped down by Munhoz's leg kicks and hooks...and then keeps coming and keeps getting chopped. A 5-rounder, maybe...in a 3-rounder, this looks like one of the better value bets of the year. Not sure what Marlon's path to victory is that is deserving of him being a heavy favorite.

youre 100 percent correct …. Munoz throws wayyy more volume according to stats

neither get finished or finish much

Munoz also has a wrestling advantage

Vera always loses every first round

Munoz is boring AF but is a great dog shot single bet - not parlay piece

tiuliulin the other fantastic value dog shot over robocop …. Robo -350 Dennis +275 …. Dennis 95% percent of wins by knockout and robo been dropped many times …. When the prop drops Dennis by finish for plus 4-500 will definitely be a great value single bet !
 
I'll be in Las Vegas to bet on this fight card. Send me a PM if you'll be there too.
 
Cody Garbrandt is off the card. The UFC is looking for a replacement for Mario Bautista.
 
I'm boring on this one. I like the favs. Tempted to put them all in a parlay and just hope for the best, but I'm pretty sure at least one of them will go sour.
I think Robocop should win too, but I don't know, I just don't like him at those odds.
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