UFC 293 PBP/Discussion

I lost some bucks on that last one. Don't know why I didn't follow my own advice and avoid terrible odd fights like that haha.
Regardless, I'm happy to see Sean win. He earned it.
 
People talk about the mental game but sometimes we need to take a minute and actually think about what that means. SO many guys would just freeze in front of Izzy in a spot like that. Replacement guy, huge underdog, etc. They'd just wilt and be beaten before ever stepping in the cage. Say whatever you want, Strickland came to fight from the FIRST SECOND of that fight. Never blinked. Never faded. Was the one pressuring Izzy the WHOLE fight. Dude EARNED that title. He didn't land one massive "lucky" punch. He didn't win on a fluke injury. He beat Izzy fighting how he always fights. Kudos to him.
 
This event has humbled me.

I need to step up my game, start whipping out spread sheets .

Im falling for the allure and marketing by the ufc. Making me believe that some fighters are invincible. When you breakdown style matchups and ignore mma math. You see the nuance and bet without bias.
 
on a more technical 6d chess 300iq analysis notice how sean doesnt drop his head to either sides and keeps his shoulder real tucked and reactive. none of izzy's go for broke kicks landed.

cant believe how many times each fight card dudes get knocked out for ducking into a kick or hook
 
mkess101 said:
People talk about the mental game but sometimes we need to take a minute and actually think about what that means. SO many guys would just freeze in front of Izzy in a spot like that. Replacement guy, huge underdog, etc. They'd just wilt and be beaten before ever stepping in the cage. Say whatever you want, Strickland came to fight from the FIRST SECOND of that fight. Never blinked. Never faded. Was the one pressuring Izzy the WHOLE fight. Dude EARNED that title. He didn't land one massive "lucky" punch. He didn't win on a fluke injury. He beat Izzy fighting how he always fights. Kudos to him.
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Exactly. He straight-up outboxed him.
 
ExitLUPin said:
Man Volkov was so big for me. Wouldve been on life support without it.

Got Izzy ITD -105 - Izzy TKO/KO not separated itself much from this on the miniscule chance of a sub
Sean 4, 5, dec +900

Izzy finish puts me a small profit

Sean if he wins in rounds 4, 5 or decision puts a decent profit

Anything else would be my 4th losing card of the year altho Volkov protected it from a decent loss.
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Sean decision!!! No robbery

+900 win just gave me a nice profit for the card overall.
 
Stat_Collector said:
This event has humbled me.

I need to step up my game, start whipping out spread sheets .

Im falling for the allure and marketing by the ufc. Making me believe that some fighters are invincible. When you breakdown style matchups and ignore mma math. You see the nuance and bet without bias.
Click to expand...
I think that's the crazy thing about this one. Based on styles, Izzy SHOULD have had an easy one.
Sean marches forward, doesn't shoot for takedowns, and doesn't throw kicks (just teeps).
Izzy is great at stepping back, countering, and leg kicks.
In THEORY Izzy should have been chopping that lead leg down all night, and the second Sean stepped forward and threw a jab Izzy SHOULD have been able to find a counter.
I guess a combo of Sean's toughness + his defense + unrelenting pace was the winning combo. But based on styles I think most people expected this to be Izzy's night.
 
Can I post pics from my phone? Or do I have to upload it somewhere and post a link?

I’m not going through that trouble to post some bet slips lol
 
70 R$ (14 US$) Strickland O3.5 SUB/DEC @17,00
 
Guld said:
I think that's the crazy thing about this one. Based on styles, Izzy SHOULD have had an easy one.
Sean marches forward, doesn't shoot for takedowns, and doesn't throw kicks (just teeps).
Izzy is great at stepping back, countering, and leg kicks.
In THEORY Izzy should have been chopping that lead leg down all night, and the second Sean stepped forward and threw a jab Izzy SHOULD have been able to find a counter.
I guess a combo of Sean's toughness + his defense + unrelenting pace was the winning combo. But based on styles I think most people expected this to be Izzy's night.
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I have a section in my sheet where i measure judges scoring criteria, and aggressiveness is one of them.

I also would have rated Sean as having better age. Izzy is 34 , mid 30s is when a lot of fighters start to decline. We saw this with Valentina when she started fighting flat in her last two fights. SHe grappled more than strikes, because strikers lose their reflex in those mid 30s.

I would have rated sean's hand speed and head movement , blocking high as well.

Sean at those odds after all things consider , would make more sense to play. I wish this would have been a call i made.
 
Stat_Collector said:
I have a section in my sheet where i measure judges scoring criteria, and aggressiveness is one of them.

I also would have rated Sean as having better age. Izzy is 34 , mid 30s is when a lot of fighters start to decline. We saw this with Valentina when she started fighting flat in her last two fights. SHe grappled more than strikes, because strikers lose their reflex in those mid 30s.

I would have rated sean's hand speed and head movement , blocking high as well.

Sean at those odds after all things consider , would make more sense to play. I wish this would have been a call i made.
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I think the XFactor of "Izzy finally got his 'white whale' after KOing Alex" would be something to factor as well.
 
Guld said:
I think the XFactor of "Izzy finally got his 'white whale' after KOing Alex" would be something to factor as well.
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Yeah he might already lost the hunger after that.

the odds never reflected the skill gap between them. i think as gamblers we should sometimes just roll the dice and hope for the best.

I remember playing Sean when he fought Alex, a slick boxer with a philly shell defense and stance, head movement, loads of amount experience.

In retrospect, Izzy should have been a -250 tops. A value punt play for Sean was the right play.
 
I got Izzy @ -190 after round 1 though, no regrets. Just didn't get offensive enough. Strickland by decision, who would've thought?

I wonder what the odds will be if they end up rematching. Regardless of the scorecards Izzy will get the benefit of doubt with "one bad night", I'd back him again.
 
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