UFC 293, September 9, Adesanya vs. Strickland, Australia

[Chris Wang]

Adesanya is one of the GOAT strikers out there, he only loses to Pereira or a heavier wrestler, what makes ANYONE think that Strickland got 0,01% chance?

 

[mkess101]

Adesanya is one of the GOAT strikers out there, he only loses to Pereira or a heavier wrestler, what makes ANYONE think that Strickland got 0,01% chance?

I mean, that's ridiculous obviously in a high variance sport where one weird strike can change things. And it's not like Strickland has zero grappling.

That said...no doubt this is a tailor made matchup for Izzy. The lopsided odds are justified, it would take something a bit crazy for him to lose imo.

 

[Jasper_RB81]

Adesanya is one of the GOAT strikers out there, he only loses to Pereira or a heavier wrestler, what makes ANYONE think that Strickland got 0,01% chance?

Pretty ridiculous to say that Strickland has 0,01% chance, of course he has a lot higher chance than that. Even if you believe Izzy to be the far superior fighter. Izzy could break his hand in the fight, he could snap a leg on a checked leg kick. Perhaps he gets stomach sick, but still chose to fight and gasses hard in the 2nd round. Perhaps we have misread the situation and Stricklands wrestling is better than expected and he gets takedowns in all rounds.

Odds suggest 87% likelihood that Izzy wins, I personally think those odds are pretty justified... but don't throw out stupid numbers. This is MMA and lots of things can happen.

 

[Broe.]

Manel Kape by finish is -190 while his KO line is -140. Has Kape ever gone for gone for a submission?

 

[Georges Hefner]

Carlos Ulberg (-270) *lots of value*

Austin Lane (+190) *great underdog*

 

[johno]

Manel Kape by finish is -190 while his KO line is -140. Has Kape ever gone for gone for a submission?

Yeah he had that nasty kimura against Dvorak. Close to finishing but Dvorak refused to give

 

[mckinnley]

Carlos Ulberg (-270) *lots of value*

Austin Lane (+190) *great underdog*

Lane has an angry samoan on his case after jamming his whole finger in his eye socket. Would proceed with caution lol

 

[Georges Hefner]

Lane has an angry samoan on his case after jamming his whole finger in his eye socket. Would proceed with caution lol

Exactly, he’s gonna fight emotional. This is Justin Tafa we’re talking about. Justin is the runt of the Tafa litter. Junior would smoke Austin Lane

 

[Don Sharpe]

UFC 293 Main Event Prediction

Israel Adesanya (24-2) Vs Sean Strickland (27-5)

With the middleweight title on the line we have a very exciting match up.

While many are leaning towards Adesanya as the clear favorite, I see Strickland as a formidable opponent who could turn this fight into a thrilling contest.

Should Adesanya fail to secure an early victory, he might encounter some challenges as the fight progresses.

Adesanya's striking prowess, characterized by its precision and speed, is undeniable.

In contrast, Strickland is often recognized more for his outspoken personality than his fighting abilities, yet it's essential not to underestimate his skill set.

I believe the odds should be much closer and for this reason I'm making a small play on the underdog.

Pick: Sean Strickland ML (+470)

 

[mckinnley]

Exactly, he’s gonna fight emotional. This is Justin Tafa we’re talking about. Justin is the runt of the Tafa litter. Junior would smoke Austin Lane

Justin can fight anyway he wants lol this football player is going to sleep either way

 

[mckinnley]

UFC 293 Main Event Prediction

Israel Adesanya (24-2) Vs Sean Strickland (27-5)

With the middleweight title on the line we have a very exciting match up.

While many are leaning towards Adesanya as the clear favorite, I see Strickland as a formidable opponent who could turn this fight into a thrilling contest.

Should Adesanya fail to secure an early victory, he might encounter some challenges as the fight progresses.

Adesanya's striking prowess, characterized by its precision and speed, is undeniable.

In contrast, Strickland is often recognized more for his outspoken personality than his fighting abilities, yet it's essential not to underestimate his skill set.

I believe the odds should be much closer and for this reason I'm making a small play on the underdog.

Pick: Sean Strickland ML (+470)

Nice essay and even cooler donation pick

 

[mkess101]

UFC 293 Main Event Prediction

Israel Adesanya (24-2) Vs Sean Strickland (27-5)

With the middleweight title on the line we have a very exciting match up.

While many are leaning towards Adesanya as the clear favorite, I see Strickland as a formidable opponent who could turn this fight into a thrilling contest.

Should Adesanya fail to secure an early victory, he might encounter some challenges as the fight progresses.

Adesanya's striking prowess, characterized by its precision and speed, is undeniable.

In contrast, Strickland is often recognized more for his outspoken personality than his fighting abilities, yet it's essential not to underestimate his skill set.

I believe the odds should be much closer and for this reason I'm making a small play on the underdog.

Pick: Sean Strickland ML (+470)

LOL there's no actual analysis as to WHY Strickland is live here.

If he has a realistic shot...how about sharing ar least SOME semblance of HOW he wins?

 

[UFCIsNOTRigged]

Adesanya is one of the GOAT strikers out there, he only loses to Pereira or a heavier wrestler, what makes ANYONE think that Strickland got 0,01% chance?

I would favor Strickland if they were fighting in the smaller octagon at the UFC apex. Adesanya doesn’t throw enough volume to separate himself and cleanly win rounds in close quarters. That’s one of the reasons, among others, that he lost two of the first three rounds on every judges scorecard to Jan Blachowicz and those were striking only rounds.

Adesanya has very good footwork so when he is fighting in the bigger octagon, with space to work, his opponents struggle to land. They cannot confine him to one area and because of this are left following him as he picks at them from a distance. If Strickland had previously demonstrated the footwork necessary to cut off the bigger cage, which he definitely has not, this would be a close fight.

If Strickland could compromise Adesanya’s movement early with leg kicks, which Poatan appeared close to achieving in their last fight, it would force Adesanya to fight at Strickland’s preferred range. Strickland doesn’t normally utilize leg kicks so this is wishful thinking but there are definitely ways Sean could hypothetically make it a close fight.

I expect Adesanya to win, likely by decision, but playing him at -650 is a bad beat waiting to happen.

 

[sonhow]

LOL there's no actual analysis as to WHY Strickland is live here.

If he has a realistic shot...how about sharing ar least SOME semblance of HOW he wins?

Seans outspoken personality will force Izzy to gas in later rounds and Sean will take over. Sean will give a whole new meaning to personality that takes toll on people.

Or thats what I got out of the post.

 

[mckinnley]

I would favor Strickland if they were fighting in the smaller octagon at the UFC apex. Adesanya doesn’t throw enough volume to separate himself and cleanly win rounds in close quarters. That’s one of the reasons, among others, that he lost two of the first three rounds on every judges scorecard to Jan Blachowicz and those were striking only rounds.

Adesanya has very good footwork so when he is fighting in the bigger octagon, with space to work, his opponents struggle to land. They cannot confine him to one area and because of this are left following him as he picks at them from a distance. If Strickland had previously demonstrated the footwork necessary to cut off the bigger cage, which he definitely has not, this would be a close fight.

If Strickland could compromise Adesanya’s movement early with leg kicks, which Poatan appeared close to achieving in their last fight, it would force Adesanya to fight at Strickland’s preferred range. Strickland doesn’t normally utilize leg kicks so this is wishful thinking but there are definitely ways Sean could hypothetically make it a close fight.

I expect Adesanya to win, likely by decision, but playing him at -650 is a bad beat waiting to happen.

Izzy lost against Jan because he was just losing in the stand up period, in all exchanges. Had nothing to do with volume. Also, the size of the cage doesn’t matter really. They could be fighting a phone booth and Izzy will still win the exchanges. Strickland doesn’t have any power. “Cutting off the cage” only works if you have enough power to back off your opponent and give them something to think about. Sean had the most boring fighter ever against Cannonier, a guy that was neutralized and scared to engage with Izzy. Why? Because Izzy sparks people bro. Alex, sparked. Costa, sparked. Rob? Sparked. Sean slowly walking flat footed towards a buzzsaw that is not only better at everything but that can hit you from any angle… Can’t wait for Dricus vs Izzy

 

[Danis_champ]

Nice essay and even cooler donation pick

He is clearly trolling. He picked Spivak last week.

 

[MixMartialFarts]

Manel Kape by finish is -190 while his KO line is -140. Has Kape ever gone for gone for a submission?

Yea he almost had Dvorak in a crazy kimura, looked like he broke/was gonna break his arm but Dvorak refused to tap and the round ended. Kape actually looks like he has some dangerous submissions.

 

[MixMartialFarts]

Izzy lost against Jan because he was just losing in the stand up period, in all exchanges. Had nothing to do with volume. Also, the size of the cage doesn’t matter really. They could be fighting a phone booth and Izzy will still win the exchanges. Strickland doesn’t have any power. “Cutting off the cage” only works if you have enough power to back off your opponent and give them something to think about. Sean had the most boring fighter ever against Cannonier, a guy that was neutralized and scared to engage with Izzy. Why? Because Izzy sparks people bro. Alex, sparked. Costa, sparked. Rob? Sparked. Sean slowly walking flat footed towards a buzzsaw that is not only better at everything but that can hit you from any angle… Can’t wait for Dricus vs Izzy

Adesanyas fight vs Cannonier was 10x more boring then Stricklands fight with Cannonier

 

[guesswhoseback]

Manel Kape by finish is -190 while his KO line is -140. Has Kape ever gone for gone for a submission?

when lines are that close just bet the finish lol i dont remeber the exact odds but when lewis fought ngannou so many people bet ngannou wins by Tko at like -125 lets say while his win line was at -135 or something along those lines and i was literally laughing out loud people lost on a tko line when his ml was only 10 points higher like really why in the hell and some of those people were so called "Good cappers"

 

[mkess101]

Adesanyas fight vs Cannonier was 10x more boring then Stricklands fight with Cannonier

Izzy's fight with Romero was worse. Holy crap that was a terrible main event. And Izzy afterwards gloating about his performance...so bad.

Izzy needs someone to lead so he can counter. He just won't push a pace, so if he gets someone willing to sit back too, it's almost unwatchable.