UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg

[PuertoRican]

Main Card (ESPN+)​
Flyweight	Alexandre Pantoja	vs.	Steve Erceg
Bantamweight	Jonathan Martinez	vs.	Jose Aldo
Light Heavyweight	Anthony Smith	vs.	Vitor Petrino
Middleweight	Michel Pereira	vs.	Ihor Potieria
Middleweight	Paul Craig	vs.	Caio Borralho
Preliminary Card (ESPN2 / ESPN+)​
Featherweight	Jack Shore	vs.	Joanderson Brito
Women's Strawweight	Karolina Kowalkiewicz	vs.	Iasmin Lucindo
Lightweight	Elves Brener	vs.	Myktybek Orolbai
Featherweight	Jean Silva	vs.	William Gomis
Early Preliminary Card (ESPN2 / ESPN+)​
Lightweight	Joaquim Silva	vs.	Drakkar Klose
Lightweight	Mauricio Ruffy	vs.	Jamie Mullarkey
Women's Flyweight	Dione Barbosa	vs.	Ernesta Kareckaite
Lightweight	Ismael Bonfim	vs.	Vinc Pichel
Flyweight	Alessandro Costa	vs.	Kevin Borjas

 

[guesswhoseback]

Well leaving Vegas it was a fun run now back to online gambling my normal bets here we're usually like 100-200 per fight when I create an account on a site it will drop drastically to probably idk 25-50 per fight or something along those lines because my dumb ass will see oh shit 3k in the account let me live bet japanese soccer or some crap like that.

Borjas+115 over
Binfirm-450 over
Karecaite+180 over
Ruffy-170 under
Klose-185 under
Gomis+116 over
Brenner+205 over
Kowlkakieck+275 over
Brito-170 under
Borallho-550 over
Perreira-400 under
Petrino-550 under
Martinez-135 over
Pantoja-230 over

This is what I like

 

[EndlessCritic]

Shore +140
Brener +200
Gomis +120

All seem like no brainers to me.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Borjas over costa. Explosive - fast - solid chin - all what i want from a good underdog.

 

[Macaque]

Shore +140
Brener +200
Gomis +120

All seem like no brainers to me.

Where did you find Gomis @2,20? I just locked in a bet on Brener at the same price, but have to disagree on Shore. I can’t bet him until the weigh-ins. If he comes in with the same physique as the Amirkhani fight, I’d expect him to be badly overpowered in grappling exchanges.

 

[EndlessCritic]

Where did you find Gomis @2,20? I just locked in a bet on Brener at the same price, but have to disagree on Shore. I can’t bet him until the weigh-ins. If he comes in with the same physique as the Amirkhani fight, I’d expect him to be badly overpowered in grappling exchanges.

Gomis is +128 on betonline right now

 

[Jinx_AA]

Martinez is going to be way too much for Aldo … he’s got tremendous value at -138…. I’ll play a huge single on him.

Also think Erceg can beat pantoja …. Pantoja has been getting hit way too much lately… I made a small parlay on the two of them - I’m guessing Martinez will grow to a much bigger favorite so I wanted to get in early while I could

 

[Tebowned]

Aldo has some of the best leg kick defense. JM's best weapon has been his leg kicks. Also opposite stance. Passing though.

I'm on Erceg. I think he has a chance.

 

[mkess101]

Martinez is going to be way too much for Aldo … he’s got tremendous value at -138…. I’ll play a huge single on him.

Also think Erceg can beat pantoja …. Pantoja has been getting hit way too much lately… I made a small parlay on the two of them - I’m guessing Martinez will grow to a much bigger favorite so I wanted to get in early while I could

View attachment 1041737

Agree on the Dragon but is there any evidence that Erceg can deal with Pantoja's grappling? Has Erceg faced any high level grapplers and acquitted himself well on the mat? If Pantoja is dumb enough to welcome a striking match he may get KO'd but I have to think he's gonna basically try to be a blanket here. And he's dangerous enough that sub is always a possibility too.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Agree on the Dragon but is there any evidence that Erceg can deal with Pantoja's grappling? Has Erceg faced any high level grapplers and acquitted himself well on the mat? If Pantoja is dumb enough to welcome a striking match he may get KO'd but I have to think he's gonna basically try to be a blanket here. And he's dangerous enough that sub is always a possibility too.

his one and only lost was a grappler.

 

[manopino]

Agree on the Dragon but is there any evidence that Erceg can deal with Pantoja's grappling? Has Erceg faced any high level grapplers and acquitted himself well on the mat? If Pantoja is dumb enough to welcome a striking match he may get KO'd but I have to think he's gonna basically try to be a blanket here. And he's dangerous enough that sub is always a possibility too.

his one and only lost was a grappler.

yeah in the fight with Sean Gauci he got taken down quite easily every rounds (Pantoya has good takedowns).
Also who actually fought Erceg in the UFC?.He only has 3 fight in the UFC, Pantoya has fought 14 times.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Aldo has some of the best leg kick defense. JM's best weapon has been his leg kicks. Also opposite stance. Passing though.

I'm on Erceg. I think he has a chance.

aldo has two major negative things about him. Old age and not doing mma . Last 3 fights were boxing matches. This could make him rusty . Martinez is in the prime of his fight career, conventional wisdom favors him.

 

[ExitLUPin]

I am playing Aldo as the dog big. Everything about Martinez starts and ends with his leg kicks. Aldo is the best kick checker we've ever seen. I think this looks like the Munhoz fight TBH and that was a close to even line where Aldo looked -500 at least except Munhoz back then was much better than Martinez overall, tougher and better chin so I think even a TKO is live for Aldo once he shuts down the kicks and starts piecing him up with the jab and bodywork.

Look at the guys Aldo lost to.... Conor, Max, Volk, Yan, Merab.... Jonathan Martinez? LMAO. This line is wild. I get the layoff but Aldo is always training and this Rio return had been rumored for months before we even got the announcement.

 

[sonhow]

Aldo if he is as good as in his last fight should beat Martinez. That Merab fight was pretty close 29-28 loss after all.

Dunno if that guy shows up though.

 

[StewDogg11]

Looks like all the money is coming in on Erceg. I got him at +195 yesterday and he’s +170 now.

 

[JC615]

aldo has two major negative things about him. Old age and not doing mma . Last 3 fights were boxing matches. This could make him rusty . Martinez is in the prime of his fight career, conventional wisdom favors him.

Aldo's been around too long to get rusty.

 

[mkess101]

I am playing Aldo as the dog big. Everything about Martinez starts and ends with his leg kicks. Aldo is the best kick checker we've ever seen. I think this looks like the Munhoz fight TBH and that was a close to even line where Aldo looked -500 at least except Munhoz back then was much better than Martinez overall, tougher and better chin so I think even a TKO is live for Aldo once he shuts down the kicks and starts piecing him up with the jab and bodywork.

Look at the guys Aldo lost to.... Conor, Max, Volk, Yan, Merab.... Jonathan Martinez? LMAO. This line is wild. I get the layoff but Aldo is always training and this Rio return had been rumored for months before we even got the announcement.

Maaan...Martinez obviously uses leg kicks a lot but that's far from his entire striking game. His hands have gotten a lot better, he mixes things up well. His tdd seems solid too. He's WAY more refined than Munhoz who's a decent boxer with good power but is very hittable (great chin, but opponents score on him pretty easily). Martinez also longer and uses distance LEVELS better than Pedro.

Aldo isn't gonna get blown away or anything unless he's fallen off a cliff. Fight should be competitive imo. I lean Martinez, think the line is justified but that Aldo is live.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Aldo's been around too long to get rusty.

there is a point of diminishing return.

I am playing Aldo as the dog big. Everything about Martinez starts and ends with his leg kicks. Aldo is the best kick checker we've ever seen. I think this looks like the Munhoz fight TBH and that was a close to even line where Aldo looked -500 at least except Munhoz back then was much better than Martinez overall, tougher and better chin so I think even a TKO is live for Aldo once he shuts down the kicks and starts piecing him up with the jab and bodywork.

Look at the guys Aldo lost to.... Conor, Max, Volk, Yan, Merab.... Jonathan Martinez? LMAO. This line is wild. I get the layoff but Aldo is always training and this Rio return had been rumored for months before we even got the announcement.

Aldo is the same age as Muhoz, and now he is older. I see this as Aldo fighting his younger self.

Martinez may not have been a champ. But teleport him to 2014-2015 at this current level, and he could have been a champ when Aldo won it. It's just the sport has evolved a lot since then. I don't know if Martinez can be champ in 2024. But he definitely would have beaten the guys Aldo beat back then; he probably loses to Max and Conor as well, struggles with Korean Zombie.

 

[EndlessCritic]

Looks like all the money is coming in on Erceg. I got him at +195 yesterday and he’s +170 now.

Really wild. His strength of schedule is nowhere close to Pantoja's. He barely scraped by Costa.


In other news, who is betting Netto BJJ? I feel like Klose should be closer to -250 here.

 

[Tebowned]

Really wild. His strength of schedule is nowhere close to Pantoja's. He barely scraped by Costa.


In other news, who is betting Netto BJJ? I feel like Klose should be closer to -250 here.

It's in Brazil and no USADA. Only thing I can think of.