UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg

[Hellowhosthat]

I am playing Aldo as the dog big. Everything about Martinez starts and ends with his leg kicks. Aldo is the best kick checker we've ever seen. I think this looks like the Munhoz fight TBH and that was a close to even line where Aldo looked -500 at least except Munhoz back then was much better than Martinez overall, tougher and better chin so I think even a TKO is live for Aldo once he shuts down the kicks and starts piecing him up with the jab and bodywork.

Look at the guys Aldo lost to.... Conor, Max, Volk, Yan, Merab.... Jonathan Martinez? LMAO. This line is wild. I get the layoff but Aldo is always training and this Rio return had been rumored for months before we even got the announcement.

Buyer beware that Aldo is only taking this fight to finish his UFC contract so he can go box. I'm sure he'll try and win in Rio but I also doubt he's been training with the same intensity he normally does.

 

[Thesnake101]

Someone talk me out of Borralho KO.

Caio, Vitor and Pereira all ITD seems like a nice, safe parlay for the main card imo. Craig, Potiera and Smith aren't the most durable guys and, aside from Paul, tend to blow up if things aren't going their way.

 

[Joonc]

Someone talk me out of Borralho KO.

Caio, Vitor and Pereira all ITD seems like a nice, safe parlay for the main card imo. Craig, Potiera and Smith aren't the most durable guys and, aside from Paul, tend to blow up if things aren't going their way.

Parlaying 3 ITDs is begging to get fucked by a staring contest or lay and pray performance imo.

 

[UFCIsNOTRigged]

Someone talk me out of Borralho KO.

Caio, Vitor and Pereira all ITD seems like a nice, safe parlay for the main card imo. Craig, Potiera and Smith aren't the most durable guys and, aside from Paul, tend to blow up if things aren't going their way.

Pereira prior to the Petroski finish went over three years, four straight fights, without finishing an opponent. Those opponents since fighting Pereira, excluding Khaos Williams, have gone 4-7 collectively in the UFC and all 7 of those losses are knockout losses. So Pereira is literally the only opponent those fighters (Andre Fialho, Niko Price, Ponz) have faced, and lost too in the last three years, that was unable to finish them.

Pereira is a demonstrably below average finisher, yet he is supposed to be a lock to finish Ihor, who just went three round with Robert Bryczek who had knocked six straight opponents out in under a minute to get signed by the UFC?

Its definitely possible Pereira at MW is a different fighter and Ihor will not last more than a minute with him but it is equally as likely imo that Pereira had the good fortune of fighting two straight opponents (Petroski, Oleksiejczuk) who signed to fight him on short notice, were unprepared, and walked into the cage already mentally defeated; and this fight will be a return to form of the same guy who despite his best efforts could not finish Andre Fialho.

 

[Thesnake101]

Pereira prior to the Petroski finish went over three years, four straight fights, without finishing an opponent. Those opponents since fighting Pereira, excluding Khaos Williams, have gone 4-7 collectively in the UFC and all 7 of those losses are knockout losses. So Pereira is literally the only opponent those fighters (Andre Fialho, Niko Price, Ponz) have faced, and lost too in the last three years, that was unable to finish them.

Pereira is a demonstrably below average finisher, yet he is supposed to be a lock to finish Ihor, who just went three round with Robert Bryczek who had knocked six straight opponents out in under a minute to get signed by the UFC?

Its definitely possible Pereira at MW is a different fighter and Ihor will not last more than a minute with him but it is equally as likely imo that Pereira had the good fortune of fighting two straight opponents (Petroski, Oleksiejczuk) who signed to fight him on short notice, were unprepared, and walked into the cage already mentally defeated; and this fight will be a return to form of the same guy who despite his best efforts could not finish Andre Fialho.

Keep in mind that Ihor is a notorious gasser, has been finished in 4 of his 5 losses and is also coming in on short notice. Those are the best circumstances for Pereira to keep up racking finishes at MW, especially since it's in Brazil.

Parlaying 3 ITDs is begging to get fucked by a staring contest or lay and pray performance imo.

That's fair, especially since Borralho is involved, but I think it's the right mix of guys to see it through. Admittedly the value of ITD isn't that good since each of them are such massive favorites, so passing is a valid choice.

 

[BigSteve]

Pereira prior to the Petroski finish went over three years, four straight fights, without finishing an opponent. Those opponents since fighting Pereira, excluding Khaos Williams, have gone 4-7 collectively in the UFC and all 7 of those losses are knockout losses. So Pereira is literally the only opponent those fighters (Andre Fialho, Niko Price, Ponz) have faced, and lost too in the last three years, that was unable to finish them.

Pereira is a demonstrably below average finisher, yet he is supposed to be a lock to finish Ihor, who just went three round with Robert Bryczek who had knocked six straight opponents out in under a minute to get signed by the UFC?

Its definitely possible Pereira at MW is a different fighter and Ihor will not last more than a minute with him but it is equally as likely imo that Pereira had the good fortune of fighting two straight opponents (Petroski, Oleksiejczuk) who signed to fight him on short notice, were unprepared, and walked into the cage already mentally defeated; and this fight will be a return to form of the same guy who despite his best efforts could not finish Andre Fialho.

Pereira is bellow average? Tough crowd

 

[UFCIsNOTRigged]

Pereira is bellow average? Tough crowd

A below average finisher yes.

Pereira went three years without finishing a UFC fight, four straight opponents, who after fighting him proceeded to get knocked out a collective 7 times.

I don't see how its even debatable tbh, based on the current evidence, but maybe he has turned a new leaf at MW.

 

[Hellowhosthat]

Someone talk me out of Borralho KO.

Caio, Vitor and Pereira all ITD seems like a nice, safe parlay for the main card imo. Craig, Potiera and Smith aren't the most durable guys and, aside from Paul, tend to blow up if things aren't going their way.

Craig's defensive BJJ isn't that great, I can see Borralho taking his back and subbing him.

 

[EndlessCritic]

Potieria should have finished Bellato, and looked fantastic in his last fight. +500 is completely insane.

 

[Thesnake101]

Craig's defensive BJJ isn't that great, I can see Borralho taking his back and subbing him.

He's only been subbed twice though, and I think Caio tends to play it so safe on the ground that a finish won't really come there. Only guy he's tapped in the UFC is Michal, and that's someone who is pretty helpless when it comes to defending subs.

I think Caio finds something standing both because Paul is chinny and that Borralho seems to have the sort of fight IQ to exploit a clear weakness in his opponent's game, the striking being that here.

Potieria should have finished Bellato, and looked fantastic in his last fight. +500 is completely insane.

Well, you also need to take into accounr Pereira scoring two one minute finishes back-to-back and being on a big winning streak as well. Line is obviously very wide, but I'd argue Ihor is at least a +300 dog based on who he's been historically (gassy can crusher) and Michel's versatility.

 

[Georges Hefner]

Last event was my 2nd losing event of the year. One thing for certain - I never lost back to back events. I fucked up. Im admitting it. I got no ego, I got no shame, I swallow my pride and admit that im missing it

 

[Georges Hefner]

Steve Erceg looks like a nerd but I dont want to base another mans fighting skills off looks. I made the same mistake when I faded Talbott because he looked like a lesbian

 

[Stat_Collector]

Pantoja at -180

pantoja by saturday -120

 

[Oblivian]

Pantoja at -180

pantoja by saturday -120

Hopefully. I'll jump on Pantoja at those odds all day.

 

[mkess101]

Pantoja at -180

pantoja by saturday -120

No way...but I hope you're right! That's worth a drive to a casino to get real $ on the Canibal.

 

[UFCIsNOTRigged]

Karolina Kowalkiewicz's decision line (+500) seems very wide there is definitely value imo. Lucindo is too low volume and lacks the punching power to cover this line.

 

[Wagner Azevedo]

Someone talk me out of Borralho KO.

Caio, Vitor and Pereira all ITD seems like a nice, safe parlay for the main card imo. Craig, Potiera and Smith aren't the most durable guys and, aside from Paul, tend to blow up if things aren't going their way.

Boralho Gym is basically on my street. His mantra for this camp is "I'll going to knock Paul Craig out".

Not sure if that helps talking you out of it...lol

 

[lefontes]

Info: Im live in Rio (20 minutes this Arena) and very hot weather now.

 

[Georges Hefner]

Seriously what is Shore’s path to victory? Taking down Brito and controlling him for 2/3 rounds? I just dont see it. I think Brito is a good bet

 

[EndlessCritic]

Seriously what is Shore’s path to victory? Taking down Brito and controlling him for 2/3 rounds? I just dont see it. I think Brito is a good bet

Brito relies too much on power and explosiveness. He is liable to gassing out.

Shore was able to negate Valiev. He can do the same to Brito.