UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier

[mkess101]

he didn’t do that with mvp tho, he did in fact grapple and fell short

on tape i just dont see how Michal wins.

Kevin is taller , longer limbs , better power ,straight punch, better grappler. anything is possible, he can have an off night, but i dont think he losses this one 90% of the time.

Right, he didn't do it with MVP but that's kinda my point. I have no clue if he's gonna come in and do everything possible to win like he sometimes does, or if he's gonna be a flake and goof off and seemingly make winning not the most important thing. Essentially, I just don't trust him. Yes, at his best he's clearly better than Michal. But who the hell knows what he's thinking on any given fight night.

 

[mkess101]

Piggybacking on the Holland mentality, it's far too often he's yapping (and also too often it's to people OUTSIDE the cage).. why is so hard to just focus on the opponent and fight?

Exactly!! Winning isn't always his primary focus. I'll put my money on guys who are always dialed in.

 

[Jinx_AA]

Even when holland yaps and acts a flake - he’s still super durable

Michal isn’t durable at all

I don’t think Michal is an interesting enough guy to make holland even want to talk with him … if that makes sense …

I get the “hard to trust holland” …. But this is the ufc giving him a needed win here

 

[Georges Hefner]

-900? I’ve been accused of trolling but even I never went that far. But I like the confidence.

I like the number on Poirier & Romanov.
Especially with the Costa curse and Jailton being undersized + coming too soon from KO.

Cesar has Kopylov covered in stand up and his TDD should be more than enough to keep it kickboxing range. I bet him against Budka because I liked what I saw on the DWCS.

 

[Georges Hefner]

Even when holland yaps and acts a flake - he’s still super durable

Michal isn’t durable at all

I don’t think Michal is an interesting enough guy to make holland even want to talk with him … if that makes sense …

I get the “hard to trust holland” …. But this is the ufc giving him a needed win here

Bruno Silva should be -500 over the Chris

 

[Jinx_AA]

Bruno Silva should be -500 over the Chris

Settle down Benny … everyone should be -500 against the Chris … anyone but Bruno apparently lol

 

[Georges Hefner]

Lol agreed. You are wrong about Islam -500 tho. Props or no props . . . Poirier is gonna KO the inbred stiff. Third time’s the charm

 

[Stat_Collector]

Are you saying you think Kevin Holland should be -900 against Lord Michal? Or is my math totally wrong?

-1500

all my chips on black.


For me 90% leans start around -400

100% around -600 to me is maxed out.

I mean i've seen fighters go as far as -5000

so depends where your 100% ends.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Right, he didn't do it with MVP but that's kinda my point. I have no clue if he's gonna come in and do everything possible to win like he sometimes does, or if he's gonna be a flake and goof off and seemingly make winning not the most important thing. Essentially, I just don't trust him. Yes, at his best he's clearly better than Michal. But who the hell knows what he's thinking on any given fight night.

idk, i don't feel that way. i've always faded Kevin for the right fights, so whenever i've selected him as a favorite, he's always delivered for me. I picked Mvp and Khamzat over him because I knew those weren't his best matchups.

I think the only time i was wrong was the Jdm fight , in which he fought to a split in a high volume fight. I think this has that same mirroring performance. Kevin is like a bmf fighter in his weight class, he thrives in these style fights with aggressive punchers like Michal.

 

[Thesnake101]

Lol agreed. You are wrong about Islam -500 tho. Props or no props . . . Poirier is gonna KO the inbred stiff. Third time’s the charm

The first round of the BSD fight alone is enough to know that Dustin is fucked here. He's not going to magically start defending takedowns again, and Islam won't be so stupid as to not exploit the gap in grappling between the two. He's also 35 which is old by LW standards and all of us know about the 35+ stat in title fights below MW.

 

[mkess101]

idk, i don't feel that way. i've always faded Kevin for the right fights, so whenever i've selected him as a favorite, he's always delivered for me. I picked Mvp and Khamzat over him because I knew those weren't his best matchups.

I think the only time i was wrong was the Jdm fight , in which he fought to a split in a high volume fight. I think this has that same mirroring performance. Kevin is like a bmf fighter in his weight class, he thrives in these style fights with aggressive punchers like Michal.

Yeah if you have a read on him, go for it obviously. I watched him take Wonderboy down where he had the clear advantage only to purposefully let him up where he was getting picked apart. Watched him smile and laugh and make little effort to even pretend to try to stop Brunson's wrestling. Not even just that his skills didn't hold up--he just nonchalantly backed up to the cage each round and waited to be taken down and laughed and yapped at people outside the cage while he was losing (and after he lost). Those impressions are hard to overcome.

 

[Thesnake101]

What's the take on Randy Brown vs EZDS? Obviously Randy is a pretty chinny guy, but Zaleski, despite being a powerful guy and constantly having been in wars, isn't the best finisher out there and is also very hittable. Feel like Randy might be able to fight long and pick up a decision.

 

[sonhow]

What's the take on Randy Brown vs EZDS? Obviously Randy is a pretty chinny guy, but Zaleski, despite being a powerful guy and constantly having been in wars, isn't the best finisher out there and is also very hittable. Feel like Randy might be able to fight long and pick up a decision.

Zaleski is pretty inconsistent. He really probably should have had the stoppage over Rinat but only got going late. Hes also pretty old. I pretty much expect him to kill Brown quick but dunno. Wouldnt bet on Brown in this one.

 

[Dooze]

Islam sub
Strickland
Almeida itd
Kopylov KO or R2/3
Dawson sub

Main picks/props that stand out at first glance. Will wait and see what the odds look like later this week.

 

[benson733]

Dustin Porier to get his hands on Islam and get the finish. +750

I'll take that and ride or die.

 

[Georges Hefner]

The first round of the BSD fight alone is enough to know that Dustin is fucked here. He's not going to magically start defending takedowns again, and Islam won't be so stupid as to not exploit the gap in grappling between the two. He's also 35 which is old by LW standards and all of us know about the 35+ stat in title fights below MW.

Islam is looking past him. He did the same against Volk in the first fight. Poirier is taking this fight seriously. Islam is also fighting in enemy territory. Not Abu Dhabi.

Islam told DC he’s cooking up something “special”. That means he’s going to KO Poirier. If that’s the case, then I don’t see any grappling from Islam. Sterling had the same gameplan against Omalley last year. I called it.

Everytime Costa is on a card, champions lose their belts. It happened 8 times. All by finish.
7x by KO, 1x by SUB. The champions were all underdogs. Some of them were bigger dogs than Poirier. Usman almost escaped the curse, but it still got him in the end. Islam will be the 9th and final victim. After Islam loses, the curse will finally be broken.

 

[PuertoRican]

Third opponent for Lima on the same fight card.

 

[magpie878]

Everytime Costa is on a card, champions lose their belts. It happened 8 times. All by finish.
7x by KO, 1x by SUB. The champions were all underdogs. Some of them were bigger dogs than Poirier. Usman almost escaped the curse, but it still got him in the end. Islam will be the 9th and final victim. After Islam loses, the curse will finally be broken.

Islam is not an underdog.

 

[Reapzz]

Any pros in here willing to explain the spread/odds on the Makhachev vs Poirier fight to my noob self?

 

[sonhow]

Everytime Costa is on a card, champions lose their belts. It happened 8 times. All by finish.
7x by KO, 1x by SUB. The champions were all underdogs. Some of them were bigger dogs than Poirier. Usman almost escaped the curse, but it still got him in the

Thats it. Im sold. These words speak directly to my extremely superstitious mind.