UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Daukaus

[KP6982]

Would be shocked if they didn't have it on. Stayed at the Mirage for the Glover/Smith FN in May 2020 and again for Hall vs Strickland in July '21 and both times they had it on multiple screens.

 

[Stat_Collector]

I am going to go really heavy on this event. Straight up there is a lot I like and there is probably more value to be found in other fights. Fiorot/Rosa/Magny/Grasso/Choi/Askarov/Blaydes are all locks or close to locks.

I got my leans like this

Fiorot 90%
Askarov 90%
Kiezriev 90%
Blaydes 75%- Chris has heavy hands so the ko threat is there a little.
Rosa 70% - interesting to see her deal with an olympian wrestler.
Grasso 75% Jojo is a kick boxer too, and Grasso and her both prefer to fight on the feet.
Magny 65% - honestly i think Max can upset here. Griffen has solid boxing and tdd that can spell trouble for Magney.
Choi 65%- i think choi's sub defense is shaky.

 

[Thesnake101]

Nicolau at plus odds might be worth it.

 

[guesswhoseback]

@PuertoRican or anyone else who's in Vegas a lot for fights:

I'm heading out next month for a weekend, not sure which one yet. Won't be the ppv on 4/9, will be one of the next 3 fight night cards after that. The last few times I was in Vegas over the past couple years there was no fight cards those weekends. So my question is, what's the best book to watch the card at? One that has props, plenty of TV's that show it, etc.

I would say circa but if you are on the strip fuck that you will end up paying 40$ for an Uber there and back besides that idk honestly I don't mind Excalibur.


EDIT I MEANT 40$ JUST 1 WAY BUT IF YLU WITH 4 PEOPLE THAt ain't to bad then

 

[guesswhoseback]

I'll be in Vegas on April 9-12.

You'll be visiting during one of the Fight Night events. FN events are sometimes shown and sometimes not shown at sports books. Best way to check on the day of the fights is to call the casino you want to visit. Sometimes Circa/The D show UFC FNs in downtown, sometimes they don't. William Hill sometimes shows FN events.

Fight nights on regular ESPN are alwalys shown 100 percent of the time if the fights are ESPN+ no casinos offer that

 

[guesswhoseback]

Okay cool. We're like 90% gonna be staying at the Mirage. It's looking pretty likely it will be at the end of April for the Font vs Chito Vera fight night card. Not locked in but I'd say 75%.

So not a lock that the Mirage book will be showing the fights on at least one TV that night?

If it's on ESPN regular eapn and not ESPN+ they will 100 percent be showing the fight mirage sports book is dog shit

 

[guesswhoseback]

Would be shocked if they didn't have it on. Stayed at the Mirage for the Glover/Smith FN in May 2020 and again for Hall vs Strickland in July '21 and both times they had it on multiple screens.

Yes if it's regular ESPN 1 billion perct they will have it on if it's ESPN+ 0 perc chance

 

[guesswhoseback]

@PuertoRican or anyone else who's in Vegas a lot for fights:

I'm heading out next month for a weekend, not sure which one yet. Won't be the ppv on 4/9, will be one of the next 3 fight night cards after that. The last few times I was in Vegas over the past couple years there was no fight cards those weekends. So my question is, what's the best book to watch the card at? One that has props, plenty of TV's that show it, etc.

Also idk if you are a drinker but minium bet for sports to get 1 drink ticket is 100$ bull shit. But horse betting is only 10 so if u are at the sports book and no drink tickets instead of paying 8-10$ for a drink go place 10$ on a random horse to win to get a free drink ticket and u might hit that lol. And make sure u ask for ur drink ticket the bastards just won't give it to you

 

[mkess101]

If it's on ESPN regular eapn and not ESPN+ they will 100 percent be showing the fight mirage sports book is dog shit

I don't want to go all the way downtown to Circa I don't think (I mean maybe I would but my buddy isn't as into MMA and betting on it as I am. He likes it okay, he'll make some bets on what I tell him to, but he's not gonna want to bounce all the way to Circa to watch it.) So if not Mirage, which MGM owned book on the strip is better to watch at, that offers props etc?

Edit: We are now locked in for the weekend of Font vs Vera which is ESPN2 for prelims and then ESPN for main card, no ESPN+. So any MGM book it sounds like will be showing them.

 

[The Disasters]

Also idk if you are a drinker but minium bet for sports to get 1 drink ticket is 100$ bull shit. But horse betting is only 10 so if u are at the sports book and no drink tickets instead of paying 8-10$ for a drink go place 10$ on a random horse to win to get a free drink ticket and u might hit that lol. And make sure u ask for ur drink ticket the bastards just won't give it to you

That's because they know there are zero long-term profitable horseplayers betting in a casino. They can be guaranteed that every single one of those old guys with a form is going to lose what they brought with them if they're willing to bet into 20-30% takeout. Any profitable horseplayer(I bet only horses as my job for over 5 years), is betting somewhere with a material cash rebate.

Sports bettors have a chance to make money so they have to work harder for those comps.

 

[mkess101]

That's because they know there are zero long-term profitable horseplayers betting in a casino. They can be guaranteed that every single one of those old guys with a form is going to lose what they brought with them if they're willing to bet into 20-30% takeout. Any profitable horseplayer(I bet only horses as my job for over 5 years), is betting somewhere with a material cash rebate.

Sports bettors have a chance to make money so they have to work harder for those comps.

It could have changed, but I don't think the books really regulate those comps THAT closely. Or they didn't used to anyway, at least for drinks. A few years ago I was out there and cashed in a winning ticket on a football bet. The ticket was for like $268 or something. Someone had told me the people at the window are generous with drink tickets if you tip them, so I tried it and said "Just give me the $250 in big bills and keep the rest for yourself...and if you have any extra drink tickets laying around..." and I kind of laughed when I said it to try to be as friendly as possible. The lady smiled back and handed me a stack of like 10-12 of them.

Maybe that shit won't fly anymore, not sure. This was at the Mirage.

 

[Hellowhosthat]

Nicolau at plus odds might be worth it.

Played that, I don't think Dvorak has faced anybody even close to as good as him.

Probably going to play Maia, but I have a feeling people are going to heavily bet Fiorot and I might get silly odds closer to the fight so probably going to sit on that for a couple of days.

 

[Captain Chesapeake]

Played that, I don't think Dvorak has faced anybody even close to as good as him.

Probably going to play Maia, but I have a feeling people are going to heavily bet Fiorot and I might get silly odds closer to the fight so probably going to sit on that for a couple of days.

I’m considering Maia. Ptv- takedowns and lay and pray for 2 rounds.

Got fiorot at -285 expecting her numbers to be inflated.

 

[Kamais_Ookin]

I’m considering Maia. Ptv- takedowns and lay and pray for 2 rounds.

Maia is allergic to shooting td's tho, usually no attempts but does like 1 maaaybe 2 td attempts in some fights. Fight is going to be standup for 15.

 

[Captain Chesapeake]

Maia is allergic to shooting td's tho, usually no attempts but does like 1 maaaybe 2 td attempts in some fights. Fight is going to be standup for 15.

Yea I know.

it’s her only ptv and she was able to get shev down for 1 round. That’s the only reason I’d even consider her. If I knew she would be looking to take the fight to ground consistently I’d bet on her. But as we’ve seen with the likes of mckenna, these girls don’t care about strategy or fighting to their strengths.

 

[Joonc]

I got my leans like this

Fiorot 90%
Askarov 90%
Kiezriev 90%
Blaydes 75%- Chris has heavy hands so the ko threat is there a little.
Rosa 70% - interesting to see her deal with an olympian wrestler.
Grasso 75% Jojo is a kick boxer too, and Grasso and her both prefer to fight on the feet.
Magny 65% - honestly i think Max can upset here. Griffen has solid boxing and tdd that can spell trouble for Magney.
Choi 65%- i think choi's sub defense is shaky.

Magny is weird because theoretically he should be getting into close grindy decisions every other fight which sounds terrible to bet on. But its like others have said, judges historically love this guy for some reason he has never been on the wrong side of a shakey decision when he should be getting into them all the time with the way he fights. Its like clockwork how consistently this has been true for him in his long career, and fighting against someone with Griffin's mold seems like the clock just making its rounds once more. Magny only really loses to specialists who can reliably drag the fight into their pathway of victory especially someone with athleticism and 36 year old Griffin just isn't that guy.

 

[2020Tracked]

Diakiese +170 is off, that line will close much closer

 

[guesswhoseback]

I don't want to go all the way downtown to Circa I don't think (I mean maybe I would but my buddy isn't as into MMA and betting on it as I am. He likes it okay, he'll make some bets on what I tell him to, but he's not gonna want to bounce all the way to Circa to watch it.) So if not Mirage, which MGM owned book on the strip is better to watch at, that offers props etc?

Edit: We are now locked in for the weekend of Font vs Vera which is ESPN2 for prelims and then ESPN for main card, no ESPN+. So any MGM book it sounds like will be showing them.

Then honestly I like Excalibur all MGM owned casinos have same props so jt doesent matter and good thing about Excalibur sports book it's right next to a star bucks like 2 feet away so u can get your cream steamed there lol.(comment from parlay game post for people who don't Know)

 

[mkess101]

Then honestly I like Excalibur all MGM owned casinos have same props so jt doesent matter and good thing about Excalibur sports book it's right next to a star bucks like 2 feet away so u can get your cream steamed there lol.(comment from parlay game post for people who don't Know)

LOL nice. Alright maybe we'll head down there. That's way down from the Mirage but I like NY NY which is down there too, so after the fights (it's an afternoon card) we can walk across and check out NY NY too.

Thanks man.

 

[guesswhoseback]

LOL nice. Alright maybe we'll head down there. That's way down from the Mirage but I like NY NY which is down there too, so after the fights (it's an afternoon card) we can walk across and check out NY NY too.

Thanks man.

Also Excalibur has a food court also so in between the female fight go upstairs order ypurself a hot dog on a stick or whatever u might like and come back down to finish watching your money going down the drain