UFC Fight Night: Covington v Woodley

Am I the only one who thought Cowboy looked kind of haggard at the weigh ins

He looks ok in the photo but in the video idk he just looked old I think

I honestly think Price is going to T/KO him within 2 rounds
 
niko price looking like he has a lot of nervous energy -- not liking that
 
Damn didnt realise Minner was that much bigger..starting to think he has a chance in the first
 
benebox said:
I really hope Meershaert is able to pull it of but stylistically he doesn't have much of a chance. However if Khamzat looks like a beast, we may get similar odds on Maia.
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Remember how high some were on Shahbazyan and a vet took down a newbie fighter? this what might happen.
 
Once again i am seeing the similar of predictions on the news sport outlets as they were super high 200% high on Shah here's a example.
Meerschaert is a quality fighter, and he's right to feel disrespected by the promotion and his opponent looking ahead to what's next. But feeling disrespected is unlikely to help him deal with what Chimaev brings to the table. Chimaev scores takedowns, dominates position and finishes fights while doing so with ruthless efficiency. It's hard to see that changing against Meerschaert
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Based off what exctaly? Chimaev had only one good win agaisnt a UFC fighter that was hyped before and Chimaev took down a UFC fighter that already was having losses.
I wouldn't be surprised if there are some upsets on tomorrow.

Sean O Mailley should be example on fighters who are overconfident.
 
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GoldenWolf87 said:
Remember how high some were on Shahbazyan and a vet took down a newbie fighter? this what might happen.
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He is going to double leg him and win that westling pedigree to go alongside his jiu-jitsu black belt.
 
careto said:
Its a great value @+235 only if she wins, I dont see how she wins. Thats why Im asking of Im missing something or is it that the odds dont reflect how close he thing the fight is.
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Because it's WMMA and he's on a roll. Also, $500 isn't shit when he's up 60k in the past 2 months. Having said that I'm still confident Dern subs her ITD.
 
Crimp_Keeper said:
How do you know he doesn't have access to lines that you don't? Also, who gives a shit about what odds he gets them at? If the picks are correct, that's literally all that matters.
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Crimp_Keeper said:
How do you know he doesn't have access to lines that you don't? Also, who gives a shit about what odds he gets them at? If the picks are correct, that's literally all that matters.
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So the odds that you get a fighter at literally don't matter? All that matters is if they win? So me posting that I got a fighter at +300, when in reality he is -120, doesn't matter lol.

You're a clueless, losing Gambler who should never be a part of any betting discussion, ever.
 
You said, "Who cares what odds he gets them at?" The answer to that would be, people with an average IQ who understand betting.

He consistently post odds which were only available for a very short amount of time. Anyone with an ounce of Common Sense can realize that he's not consistently getting the odds he's claiming. Also, you never addressed the fact that he shares a screenname with someone who was banned for posting false lines. Do you believe that two random people, happened to choose the exact same screen name, and both post lines which are never still available at the time of their posts?
 
Conor McGregoat said:
You said, "Who cares what odds he gets them at?" The answer to that would be, people with an average IQ who understand betting.

He consistently post odds which were only available for a very short amount of time. Anyone with an ounce of Common Sense can realize that he's not consistently getting the odds he's claiming. Also, you never addressed the fact that he shares a screenname with someone who was banned for posting false lines. Do you believe that two random people, happened to choose the exact same screen name, and both post lines which are never still available at the time of their posts?
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How about you answer this question; why do you care SO badly about the odds Sadistics claims he gets? I couldn't care any less. If he's picking correctly, that's all that matters to literally everyone else on this forum. You, Fight Doc and Mpoush are the only clowns who are trying to find something to "expose" about Sadistics.

If you want to start hurling personal insults, I'll be happy to oblige you and point out that you went out of your way and spent time looking up Sadistics on the internet in hopes of exposing him to members on Sherdog.com. That's the behavior of an insecure individual with nothing better to do LoL.
 
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Crimp_Keeper said:
How about you answer this question; why do you care SO badly about the odds Sadistics claims he gets? I couldn't care any less. If he's picking correctly, that's all that matters to literally everyone else on this forum. You, Fight Doc and Mpoush are the only two clowns who are trying to find something to "expose" about Sadistics.

If you want to start hurling personal insults, I'll be happy to oblige you and point out that you went out of your way and spent time looking up Sadistics on the internet in hopes of exposing him to members on Sherdog.com. That's the behavior of an insecure individual with nothing better to do LoL.
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Haha I appreciate the back up man, but I'm honestly surprised it took this long since the last time I was asked for a slip. I'd be suspicious too, but understand I'm not only doing this full time, I have access to nearly every book as a Canadian and cycle through accounts. Ill hit the occasional opener if limits are $500+ and I'm sure the line won't hold, but I really do try my best to preserve lines even if it means slightly worse odds.
 
Getting back on track with the thread.....

for the ME I believe the play is:

Woodley RD 1/2 KO

Covington UDEC

it’s a fascinating fight as whoever loses is in big danger of being out of the UFC. I think this forces Woodley to throw big. If he doesn’t get the KO then I still can’t see Covington getting him out of there.

thoughts??
 
I like both Covington points handicap* -5½ -140 1.714 and Covington UDEC 1.95.
I think the fight may be like the Lawler, I only see Woodley winning by a flash KO and Covingtons talk of KO first round and all that is just talk imo. He didn´t ko Usman despite hurting him, and the only stoppage with tko relatively recently was vs Griffin and that was without power and only because Griffin did absolutely nothing. I don´t expect Woodley to let that happen nor get subbed as he´s never been subbed before. I think Covington will fight smart and do what he do best, and Woodley will have chances but just stand and do what he do and get that paycheck.

I don´t understand the ML play here, points handicap should be fairly clear even if one judge gets it close and woodley somehow in the judges eyes can get a round We could see 49-46 49-49, and 48-47 or something. The points handicap seem too high.
I´d cap Colby UDEC at 70% and around 10% woodley finish and 20% colby finish. I just don´t see woodley with a decision we can´t put it at 0%, but its very low maybe max 5% or so I´d max give it - because if he is able to be so dominant something must be wrong with Colby and he may get finished.

People always talk about Colbys great cardio - I agree but he does get tired, he´s tired in round 4 and 5, so the finish later rounds I see as low even though round 4,5 and dec is also a way.
The points handicap for me is the best bet here - it feels fair to pay that price, and if he does win by decision it should be very dominant, and I do like to be covered just because of a new camp, and because he looked so much bigger than Woodley. This also seems a fight that you could hedge if you like, or wait after one round and see how this fight will go and then bet a dec prop for colby possibly.

One thing I´ve started to like is to use prebets as a help for livebet i.e like betting Hooker/Hill prebet, expect them to take the first rounds - then bet at great dog odds and switch sides but be covered. No loss in playing it smart. Anyway think I´ll go with 1u for the points handicap on Colby at 1.71. Available on 5dimes right now.
 
Does Woodley catch Covington in a fluke sub? I don't want to bet with my emotions but +1345 looks amazing when you hate Covington
 
Crimp_Keeper said:
Because it's WMMA and he's on a roll. Also, $500 isn't shit when he's up 60k in the past 2 months. Having said that I'm still confident Dern subs her ITD.
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Yes, I see Dern winning, too but its tough to have a bet that Sadistics is predicting a different outcome. Im still thinking about cashing out just to be on the safe side.
 
careto said:
Yes, I see Dern winning, too but its tough to have a bet that Sadistics is predicting a different outcome. Im still thinking about cashing out just to be on the safe side.
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Go with your own reads. Sadistics played Markos at a much better price, and he’s risking .6 of a unit

Personally I don’t think there’s value there at +250
 
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