UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Rodriguez

[Stat_Collector]

Can Rodriguez stay off the mat with Dern for 25 minutes? I doubt it. Dern has gotten way better with her ability to strike her way inside and get ahold of her opponents. She's still not a "good" striker but she's effective enough to accomplish what she's trying to do which is close distance. And she's shown a rock solid chin when she does get hit on the way in.

And if she gets Marina down, this isn't Esparza or Calvillo that Rodriguez will be dealing with that will lay on her and land some weak gnp. Dern will advance and likely get to a dominant spot quickly. She's just light years better on the mat than basically every other woman in MMA.

I'm gonna say Dern likely finds a finish at some point. Her days of fucking around and not caring are over, no more huge weight misses etc. She's taking scalps.

You might be right but it's easy to look impressive against lesser competition.
Nina nunes- coming off long lay off and pregnancy .
Virna- ok she is a solid bjj fighter with decent muay Thai, but her strength bjj is nullified and inferior to Dern's so she capitalized on it .
Randa Markos-low rated
Hannah Cifers- low rated
Loss to Ribas
Split with Yoder

Marina's last two fights were against top rank and she ko 1( Ribas.)5 round experience.Stuff Watersons takedowns and is fluid on the feet, much better than Dern. So while Dern can win this. Questions arise, can she take a punch from a striker like Marina? Does she have the cardio to go five rounds if it goes passed the 3rd?Marina has already proven she can go the distance and has basically maintain an undefeated record 14- and 1 split decision loss which meant a judge gave her the nod. I'm going with Rodriguez she's had nearly a perfect mma career, and I'm going to side with the +145 fighter who is 14-0 almost.

 

[Deleted member 510399]

If you're going to play Dern, you might as well just play her ITD line.

She's not going to win a stand up battle over 5 rounds. And she's not going to grapple fuck Marina over 5 rounds either, if she gets her down, she's going to finish her.

 

[Thesnake101]

You might be right but it's easy to look impressive against lesser competition.
Nina nunes- coming off long lay off and pregnancy .
Virna- ok she is a solid bjj fighter with decent muay Thai, but her strength bjj is nullified and inferior to Dern's so she capitalized on it .
Randa Markos-low rated
Hannah Cifers- low rated
Loss to Ribas
Split with Yoder

Marina's last two fights were against top rank and she ko 1( Ribas.)5 round experience.Stuff Watersons takedowns and is fluid on the feet, much better than Dern. So while Dern can win this. Questions arise, can she take a punch from a striker like Marina? Does she have the cardio to go five rounds if it goes passed the 3rd?Marina has already proven she can go the distance and has basically maintain an undefeated record 14- and 1 split decision loss which meant a judge gave her the nod. I'm going with Rodriguez she's had nearly a perfect mma career, and I'm going to side with the +145 fighter who is 14-0 almost.

I'm picking Marina. Not overtly confident since Dern has looked extremely dangerous, so I might play a FDGTD prop instead of picking a winner outright.

25 minutes should be enough for Dern to snatch a limb or Marina to break her down.

 

[Stat_Collector]

I'm picking Marina. Not overtly confident since Dern has looked extremely dangerous, so I might play a FDGTD prop instead of picking a winner outright.

25 minutes should be enough for Dern to snatch a limb or Marina to break her down.

The thing is grappling changes with cardio. A punch to the face can lower a black belt into a blue belt, a tired grappler into a freshman hs wrestler. I see Dern as a sub or bust for the first three rounds, after that we are guessing her cardio in the fourth.

 

[mkess101]

You might be right but it's easy to look impressive against lesser competition.
Nina nunes- coming off long lay off and pregnancy .
Virna- ok she is a solid bjj fighter with decent muay Thai, but her strength bjj is nullified and inferior to Dern's so she capitalized on it .
Randa Markos-low rated
Hannah Cifers- low rated
Loss to Ribas
Split with Yoder

Marina's last two fights were against top rank and she ko 1( Ribas.)5 round experience.Stuff Watersons takedowns and is fluid on the feet, much better than Dern. So while Dern can win this. Questions arise, can she take a punch from a striker like Marina? Does she have the cardio to go five rounds if it goes passed the 3rd?Marina has already proven she can go the distance and has basically maintain an undefeated record 14- and 1 split decision loss which meant a judge gave her the nod. I'm going with Rodriguez she's had nearly a perfect mma career, and I'm going to side with the +145 fighter who is 14-0 almost.

She also has 2 draws, one against Markos who you just trashed. If you're gonna bring up her entire record, kinda ridiculous to skip over that fact.

There's absolutely no question that Marina is the better striker by far. But she's also been taken down and controlled by women who aren't in the same stratosphere with Dern as far as grappling. Dern has shown a rock solid chin, maybe Marina just hits that much harder than those that have landed on Mackenzie but I tend to doubt it. Dern even said in her interview that she's prepared to be hit as she closes distance to get ahold of Marina. Marina may be able to land enough accumulative damage to stop Dern, but Dern may literally need ONE takedown for the fight to be a wrap.

Also, the fact that Dern clearly didn't care when she first moved to MMA should be taken into consideration. She missed weight badly twice, was basically kicked out of her gym because she wanted to be on the beach all the time instead of training. Those days are clearly gone. You now have a fighter who's improving massive amounts fight to fight who already came in with the best bjj by a MILE...no way I'm betting a striker against her who likely can't even afford to give away one takedown.

 

[2020Tracked]

A lot of big favourites again this week, but I think more dogs have potential to be live this event. At a glance it's easy to lean towards every favourite here just as a pick, but some like Starapoli as a big favourite against anyone isn't right, Lupita a decent size favourite? Even Phil Hawes, a guy who has consistently disappointed. Winn isn't good but Hawes is just unreliable as fuck.

 

[Thesnake101]

A lot of big favourites again this week, but I think more dogs have potential to be live this event. At a glance it's easy to lean towards every favourite here just as a pick, but some like Starapoli as a big favourite against anyone isn't right, Lupita a decent size favourite? Even Phil Hawes, a guy who has consistently disappointed. Winn isn't good but Hawes is just unreliable as fuck.

As someone who faded Hawes against Daukaus and Julian Marquez way back when, I think it's quite clear that he has taken the time to actually improve over his past mistakes and at the very least fight smarter when he needs to. Imamov is a win that's aged great, Malkoun and Daukaus might go the same way too.

Winn just doesn't have anything over Hawes, and his flaws are even more pronounced. That's without bringing height into the equation. Simply put, Phil is facing a smaller, lesser version of himself in there.

Lupita might be in the same boat of facing someone that is just that much worse. Pickett does seem live upon second glance - Staropoli was never a powerful guy even at WW, so Jamie might be able to match the offense and then some.

 

[mkess101]

The thing is grappling changes with cardio. A punch to the face can lower a black belt into a blue belt, a tired grappler into a freshman hs wrestler. I see Dern as a sub or bust for the first three rounds, after that we are guessing her cardio in the fourth.

There is an extremely small chance that Marina survives until Rd 4 if she's forced to grapple at all with Dern. The gap in grappling skill is absolutely that wide.

 

[Monster Meat]

Taking dern at -150 with max halloway -333 at a +117 payout.

 

[Stat_Collector]

There is an extremely small chance that Marina survives until Rd 4 if she's forced to grapple at all with Dern. The gap in grappling skill is absolutely that wide.

You can also make the same argument about Dern's striking gap by comparison....

But she hasn't tapped everyone out, besides Nina Nunes- who came off a long lay off. the other opponents were low tier smaller fighters. There has been several times she took someone down and failed to get the submission. We know Marina has dodged submissions within 17 fights . While it's not outside the realm of possibility ,Dern has not secured a high enough rated submission to prove she could tapout Marina. This is going to be a proving ground for both, and a step up in striking for Dern and a step up in grappling for Marina.

 

[mkess101]

You can also make the same argument about Dern's striking gap by comparison....

But she hasn't tapped everyone out, besides Nina Nunes- who came off a long lay off. the other opponents were low tier smaller fighters. There has been several times she took someone down and failed to get the submission. We know Marina has dodged submissions within 17 fights . While it's not outside the realm of possibility ,Dern has not secured a high enough rated submission to prove she could tapout Marina. This is going to be a proving ground for both, and a step up in striking for Dern and a step up in grappling for Marina.

The gap in striking probably WAS as wide previously, but while there's still a fairly wide gap, I'd argue that Dern's recent improvements have narrowed it a little anyway. And Dern is pretty clearly the best female grappler in WMMA, so I think the grappling gap is much wider. Dern hasn't subbed everyone, but she's utterly dominated everyone she's been on the mat with aside from when she tired a bit. Which I know was your point to a degree ( that she may tire again), but again we have to look at the fact she's actually training seriously now.

I think IF Dern gets Marina down (not a guarantee but likely imo) you are going to see exactly how she's simply on another planet with her grappling than Marina is. Marina will likely get the better of the striking, I agree on that. But she has to be almost perfect early on to stay upright or she's going to be drowning in the mat.

 

[Bakayoko]

As someone who faded Hawes against Daukaus and Julian Marquez way back when, I think it's quite clear that he has taken the time to actually improve over his past mistakes and at the very least fight smarter when he needs to. Imamov is a win that's aged great, Malkoun and Daukaus might go the same way too.

Winn just doesn't have anything over Hawes, and his flaws are even more pronounced. That's without bringing height into the equation. Simply put, Phil is facing a smaller, lesser version of himself in there.

Lupita might be in the same boat of facing someone that is just that much worse. Pickett does seem live upon second glance - Staropoli was never a powerful guy even at WW, so Jamie might be able to match the offense and then some.

I'm high on Hawes as favorite too.Winn just goes for the takedowns,and his good at it and explosive,but then he just tries too hold position,no punches or GnP,doesn't have a submission game,and oponnents eventually get up.Didn't tape everything but from what I saw he literally didn't any no damage to any fighter he fought.I guess there is a slight path to victory for him if he manages to get the wrestling and Hawes later gasses but that's a very narrow path,considering Hawes is a much more complete fighter.Hawes has fought and beat much higher competition,I think he takes it easily,the odds are low but should be even lower.

 

[Black Paladin]

If you're going to play Dern, you might as well just play her ITD line.

She's not going to win a stand up battle over 5 rounds. And she's not going to grapple fuck Marina over 5 rounds either, if she gets her down, she's going to finish her.

Perfectly reasoned out.

As I was reading your comment, I imagined Dern standing up for five rounds. NOT. Then, I pictured her getting Marina down, and for five rounds never getting it done. NOT.

 

[mkess101]

I see Damon Jackson decision +160...looks good to me. He's gonna look to take Rosa down straightaway and work from top position. Rosa will accept bottom but for sure has good enough bjj to avoid big damage or getting finished. Even when he was utterly clowned by Thugnasty, Rosa was never in serious danger of being finished iirc even though Bryce constantly was a step ahead on the mat and got to dominant spots a few times.

The Leech dec prop...yep.

 

[mkess101]

One prop to consider too: Dern KO at around +1500. For sure she will look for the sub and for sure that's more likely. But...10x more likely? If she gets Marina down and passes to mount, she can get a TKO finish by just throwing gnp until the ref stops it. Or from back mount if she takes her back and flattens her out. And that's not even taking into account that she could land a bomb in an exchange and hurt Marina (unlikely but not impossible--Dern isn't the slickest striker but she throws with power--see her dropping Amanda Bobby Cooper like a sack of rocks with one shot).

ITD at barely into + odds is safer of course. Sub around +150, sure. But +1500 for the KO/TKO? There's some appeal there.

 

[Al Tair]

I am confident Dern will finish Rodrigues in 1st or 2nd round. If Cynthia calvillo can get a takedown on Rodriguez I don’t see why dern can’t and pound on Rodriguez.
Not to mention that the takedown threat opens up the possibility of a Dern KO, as unlikely as it may sound

 

[Jae Gibbz]

Has anyone seen a pbp or watched Godinez' win or draw against Hughes as an amateur?

 

[Thesnake101]

I see Damon Jackson decision +160...looks good to me. He's gonna look to take Rosa down straightaway and work from top position. Rosa will accept bottom but for sure has good enough bjj to avoid big damage or getting finished. Even when he was utterly clowned by Thugnasty, Rosa was never in serious danger of being finished iirc even though Bryce constantly was a step ahead on the mat and got to dominant spots a few times.

The Leech dec prop...yep.

I'm kinda feeling Damon might be able to latch onto a sub, if only because Rosa has gotten crushed by opponents with dangerous grappling twice now (Minner and Mitchell), at one point he's gotta give.

It's stupid logic I know, but hey, if it happens I'll be here to kick myself for not going harder into it. Probably sticking to Damon's ML though. Already have enough prop gambles in mind as it is.

Has anyone seen a pbp or watched Godinez' win or draw against Hughes as an amateur?

Brother, I didn't even know such a fight took place. I'll try to find something and get back to you if I do.

 

[mkess101]

I'm kinda feeling Damon might be able to latch onto a sub, if only because Rosa has gotten crushed by opponents with dangerous grappling twice now (Minner and Mitchell), at one point he's gotta give.

It's stupid logic I know, but hey, if it happens I'll be here to kick myself for not going harder into it. Probably sticking to Damon's ML though. Already have enough prop gambles in mind as it is.

Brother, I didn't even know such a fight took place. I'll try to find something and get back to you if I do.

Man...if Mitchell didn't sub him in a fight where he completely wrecked him on the mat like that...I don't see Rosa getting subbed. That fight was on the mat pretty much the entire time, and Mitchell won every transition and scramble and was just 2 steps ahead of Rosa the entire way. And he STILL didn't really get all that close to finishing with a sub. Not saying it's impossible...but Jackson dec just waaaay more likely imo.

 

[Jae Gibbz]

Brother, I didn't even know such a fight took place. I'll try to find something and get back to you if I do.

I just recently found out myself. I appreciate it

They fought to a 3 round, Split Draw at COGA 56 - Breaking Point 4 on July / 15 / 2017

and in the rematch Godinez won a 5 round, Unanimous Decision at COGA 61 - Rumble on the Ridge 41 on Apr / 21 / 2018

The rounds in both of these fights were 3 minutes, not 5