UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Fiziev

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I really didn't think I'd get RDA at dog odds for this one being re-booked after the Moicano fight but here we are.

Also like the look of Nina Nunes, Eubanks (don't think Marina will be able to outwrestle her) and Borralho.

Considering Cortney Casey if she gets longer.
 
i dont think fiz has fought any legit grapplers. I don't like him in a 5 round fight. Very sketchy fight.
 
3u on RDA, +170 is ridiculous. He's a cardio monster with an amazing ground game. The first 2 rounds will be shaky but if he can keep a pace he should be able to finish Fiziev late.

Also like Nurmagomedov+Mullarkey for +109.
 
Im gonna be all over submission+ and Submission rnds 3-5. Ive been waiting for this fight. Smaller sprinkle because rda on the older side.

Rewatching Bobby Green v Fiziev 3rd round is all proof i need that Rda will win if he survives the 1st three rnds. a nice live bet fight too.
 
Post 2 Decision said:
How did Petrosyan open as such a big dog? I'm only getting in at +140 fuck

RDA too, +180 I'll take it
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Petrosyan gets taken down a lot, he's good at getting back up against the more Dagi style of grappling against the fence but Borralho is a back taker with ridiculous control and I don't see him escaping that.

Borralho is also an elusive in and out karate style striker himself if it stays on the feet.
 


There goes the anchor to my parlays... :(

Not surprised that Lingo doesn't want to fight Onama.
 
Shevchenko is like 0-4 as a favorite. crosses fingers for a juicy Casey sub prop although i can see casey winning on ground ctrl.
 
Stat_Collector said:
Shevchenko is like 0-4 as a favorite. crosses fingers for a juicy Casey sub prop although i can see casey winning on ground ctrl.
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Casey ML is an absolute no brainer at these odds. I love props as much as anyone and more than most. I think this is a case where you take the monster value on her ML and don't get cute.
 
I get the love for RDA at these odds a little but people might be getting a LITTLE too excited here.

Moicano is tiny compared to RDA and Fisiev. I think Fisiev can keep it standing for 3 rounds anyway, and that's a long time for RDA to not get hit with something big from an elite striker. His reflexes aren't what they used to be and even at his best, his striking defense wasn't amazing. Not terrible, but could still be caught with big shots. (Stephens, Alvarez).

I guess I'd hedge Fisiev rds 1 and 2 at least if I was gonna make huge play on RDA.
 
mkess101 said:
Casey ML is an absolute no brainer at these odds. I love props as much as anyone and more than most. I think this is a case where you take the monster value on her ML and don't get cute.
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I’m a parlay guy so i’ll probably do a parlay that begins with Casey Submission so i dont lose lots of value if she doesn’t get the tap.

any time i place her in my 2nd or third place in my parlay lineup i’ll just play her regular ml.
id lose a lot of value here if her sub prop is 300+
 
Stat_Collector said:
I’m a parlay guy so i’ll probably do a parlay that begins with Casey Submission so i dont lose lots of value if she doesn’t get the tap.

any time i place her in my 2nd or third place in my parlay lineup i’ll just play her regular ml.
id lose a lot of value here if her sub prop is 300+
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Yeah I can see taking a small amount of what you want to bet on her and playing her sub prop. But for sure I'd put the majority on her ML. She could very easily just outwork Antonina for a decision.
 
mkess101 said:
I get the love for RDA at these odds a little but people might be getting a LITTLE too excited here.

Moicano is tiny compared to RDA and Fisiev. I think Fisiev can keep it standing for 3 rounds anyway, and that's a long time for RDA to not get hit with something big from an elite striker. His reflexes aren't what they used to be and even at his best, his striking defense wasn't amazing. Not terrible, but could still be caught with big shots. (Stephens, Alvarez).

I guess I'd hedge Fisiev rds 1 and 2 at least if I was gonna make huge play on RDA.
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I'm not sure what you mean by the "Moicano is tiny compared to RDA and Fiziev" comment.

Anyway, I think Fiziev has a high probability of winning the first two rounds most of the time. Fiziev will definitely win R1, and he will keep going at the same or very similar pace in R2 while easily shucking off TDs. The trouble is when it gets to R3 and if RDA hasn't been knocked out yet. Fiziev has shown to slow down in R3 of fights, and it worries me that he's fighting 5 rounds against a guy who excels in 5-round fights.

I'm thinking about making a big bet on Fiziev pre-fight, and then live betting RDA decision or ML after the first 10 minutes, or any time after 10 minutes once I know Fiziev is starting to take his foot off the gas to conserve his energy since he notices the fight will probably go longer than expected.

If you want to bet Fiziev, betting his ML pre-fight is the best thing to do, unless you want to wait for late R4 or early R5 when his line will get better. That being said, assuming Fiziev's line will improve in late R4 or early R5 is assuming that he didn't finish RDA within the first 17 minutes or so, or that Fiziev didn't already win the first 3 rounds.
 
mkess101 said:
I get the love for RDA at these odds a little but people might be getting a LITTLE too excited here.

Moicano is tiny compared to RDA and Fisiev. I think Fisiev can keep it standing for 3 rounds anyway, and that's a long time for RDA to not get hit with something big from an elite striker. His reflexes aren't what they used to be and even at his best, his striking defense wasn't amazing. Not terrible, but could still be caught with big shots. (Stephens, Alvarez).

I guess I'd hedge Fisiev rds 1 and 2 at least if I was gonna make huge play on RDA.
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This is gonna comedown to if Rda can land as much strikes as bobby green. for Rda to tire out Fiziev, he needs to put on a fast pace, like he did against colby . If Rda is too passive, Fiziev can coast for five rounds winning combinations or getting a ko possibly. although rda’chin isnt bad, two kos in the ufc when he has 20+ fights tells you he barely gets ko.
However Fiziev stamina is an issue, in a five round fight with Green i think green would have possibly beaten him. he won by a hair. exhausted and heavy breathing. Rda ability to survive against high level elites speaks to his level. Im looking at this way. Rda overall is more combat tested, and i think he has the same qualifications as bobby green to challenge fiziev even more plus 5 round experience advantage.

i like rda sub prop here, not because i think fiziev has bad sub defense, but its because Fiziev when gassed will be diminished to a white belt level grappler. I can see rda climbing on his back and snapping a choke hold and fiziev being exhausted enough to tap out easy. kinda like when amanda nunes tapped out recently.
 
Who the fuck is betting down Mullarkey? 1.40 for him in this type of matchup is garbage. Crazy people. Dog or Pass.
 
Danis_champ said:
Who the fuck is betting down Mullarkey? 1.40 for him in this type of matchup is garbage. Crazy people. Dog or Pass.
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Theoretically he should be able to make MJ wilt, but I kinda like Johnson here for some reason. Think he'll be able to find Jamie early and often and pick up a decision.
 
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