UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Chikadze

chikadze Is still a hype train. I will hedge out with Kattar.
 
Having lost 3 fights I had bets on this card isn't really appealing to me any more, same with the Gane/Francis PPV, there isn't a huge amount I like there, both cards have too many contender series guys, new comers, or just strangely matched fights.

First solid card of the year is Hermansson/Strickland, taped the full card and there is a lot more to like there.

I'll have a few plays here and on the Gane/Francis card, but taking it easy.

The Izzy/Whittaker card also seems a lot more solid and well matched.
 
2c:

Vanessa/Juarez: Pass fight for me. Low level, Juarez has a nice jab and calf kick but she's 37 and has been fighting some low lvl competition. Vanessa has 0 wrestling and she is a punching bag. Her chin is good though, so Juarez will have to stick and move for 3 rounds and not get caught with some meme sub. Vanessa is aggressive and throws some big bombs, she could even steal rounds in the standup department. Juarez got up 3 times against Lupi before finally making a rookie mistake and getting armbared. I'm not sure how good her sub defense is nor do I trust it here. Deep down I feel Vanessa was the side at pickem, but couldn't play it and especially now as a fav.

Brian/Said: Boom or pass for me. Said is talented for sure, but in my opinion, he is still a bit raw and green in his MMA game. He has good power and is well-rounded, but mostly throws hooks and loads up. He slows down as well, iv seen him slow down and breathe heavily in all of his fights that went late. UFC was short notice, but his loss to Pipe he blew his wad constantly wrestling and then got KOed in third. Boom is going to be there for 3, he has power, durability, great cardio and he is highly reliable to wrestle in every fight. Even if it's a standup fight, Boom can be losing until he cracks him hard once. He hurt John Liniker, KOed Azure. Not sure Said has the defense to get out of the lethal guillotine some others. Jones fought horrendously in their fight, he was gassed by the second round, and he still got on top of Said and ended round 2 in mount. He also kept Said against the fence for like 70% of the fight. Big test for Said, if he comes out with a good win here I will be impressed, Boom will give him a fight.

Brahimaj/McGee: Tough fight. Seems like an easy pick on McGee who has never been subbed, and just beat Silva who would have a similar gameplan. Brahimaj is in his prime though, and not as hittable, wild, or as gassy as Silva. He also has much better explosive takedowns. McGee is still past his prime and was 0-3 before beating Silva. Because he doesn't put stamps on his fights in the standup, I don't see much value on Court. The best thing he could do is take Brahimaj down and wrestle him to a DEC. Brahimaj showed improved standup against Griffin and won the first round on one judge's scorecard. He also didn't attempt any takedowns, which makes him hard to read. I think he will get takedowns against Court but won't sub him. Depending on how much energy he wastes, Court could take over the rest of the fight. But can also see Brahimaj striking more, timing a takedown per round to seal a decision. Pass from me. If I'm playing Court it would be by DEC, his last 7 wins are DEC and Brahimaj is durable. The only finish loss is by ear falling off lol.

Britto/Algeo: Britto has all the advantages here in my opinion, and I think the line could be a lil more wider. He has all the finishing upside, physicality, wrestling, leg kicks, and fight-ending power. Algo got taken down 9 times by Ramos which is a huge red flag. He still doesn't check leg kicks, and his hands are really low. He was getting pieced apart by a retiring Lamas in the first, then got 10-8ed in the third when he couldn't get up off the ground. If Britto comes out like a mad man he could spark him. Britto is still a bit wild and hittable, but Algeo doesn't have the most power. I have seen Britto hurt on the regionals and get a takedown ASAP. He also has brutal GNP from the guard. Personally, I think Algeo has a few holes Britto can exploit, and also has finishing potential early.

Sherman/Collier: Low lvl fight, I feel like there is a bit of recency bias. Sherman is usually a decent fav in these low lvl fights. He's coming off being at pick-em with Arlovaki and massive fav over Porter to being a dog to overweight Collier? I feel like the market undervalues Porter, so a 30-27 loss to him looks horrible. I personally think Porter is a notch above Collier, who went to a dec against a pregnant Vilante and got bloodied up, and a split dec to Fellipe whos a boxer and spends too much time taunting instead of throwing. Collier slowed down in both, so don't think Sherman's cardio concerns will be a big problem. Collier also doesn't pressure, he sticks on the outside and point fights. He is light on his feet and has some nice faints and strikes, but Sherman is the natural HW and has big power advantage. There are also the leg kicks, which could cripple Collier's movement and gass him out sooner. I think Sherman should be the slight fav here, and he is going to get a striking battle V a bad HW. Not decided whether I will hit it or not, il see how fat Collier is at weigh-ins.
 
Last edited:
BigSteve said:
2c:

Vanessa/Juarez: Pass fight for me. Low level, Juarez has a nice jab and calf kick but she's 37 and has been fighting some low lvl competition. Vanessa has 0 wrestling and she is a punching bag. Her chin is good though, so Juarez will have to stick and move for 3 rounds and not get caught with some meme sub. Vanessa is aggressive and throws some big bombs, she could even steal rounds in the standup department. Juarez got up 3 times against Lupi before finally making a rookie mistake and getting armbared. I'm not sure how good her sub defense is nor do I trust it here. Deep down I feel Vanessa was the side at pickem, but couldn't play it and especially now as a fav.

Brian/Said: Boom or pass for me. Said is talented for sure, but in my opinion, he is still a bit raw and green in his MMA game. He has good power and is well-rounded, but mostly throws hooks and loads up. He slows down as well, iv seen him slow down and breathe heavily in all of his fights that went late. UFC was short notice, but his loss to Pipe he blew his wad constantly wrestling and then got KOed in third. Boom is going to be there for 3, he has power, durability, great cardio and he is highly reliable to wrestle in every fight. Even if it's a standup fight, Boom can be losing until he cracks him hard once. He hurt John Liniker, KOed Azure. Not sure Said has the defense to get out of the lethal guillotine some others. Jones fought horrendously in their fight, he was gassed by the second round, and he still got on top of Said and ended round 2 in mount. He also kept Said against the fence for like 70% of the fight. Big test for Said, if he comes out with a good win here I will be impressed, Boom will give him a fight.

Brahimaj/McGee: Tough fight. Seems like an easy pick on McGee who has never been subbed, and just beat Silva who would have a similar gameplan. Brahimaj is in his prime though, and not as hittable, wild, or as gassy as Silva. He also has much better explosive takedowns. McGee is still past his prime and was 0-3 before beating Silva. Because he doesn't put stamps on his fights in the standup, I don't see much value on Court. The best thing he could do is take Brahimaj down and wrestle him to a DEC. Brahimaj showed improved standup against Griffin and won the first round on one judge's scorecard. He also didn't attempt any takedowns, which makes him hard to read. I think he will get takedowns against Court but won't sub him. Depending on how much energy he wastes, Court could take over the rest of the fight. But can also see Brahimaj striking more, timing a takedown per round to seal a decision. Pass from me. If I'm playing Court it would be by DEC, his last 7 wins are DEC and Brahimaj is durable. The only finish loss is by ear falling off lol.

Britto/Algeo: Britto has all the advantages here in my opinion, and I think the line could be a lil more wider. He has all the finishing upside, physicality, wrestling, leg kicks, and fight-ending power. Algo got taken down 9 times by Ramos which is a huge red flag. He still doesn't check leg kicks, and his hands are really low. He was getting pieced apart by a retiring Lamas in the first, then got 10-8ed in the third when he couldn't get up off the ground. If Britto comes out like a mad man he could spark him. Britto is still a bit wild and hittable, but Algeo doesn't have the most power. I have seen Britto hurt on the regionals and get a takedown ASAP. He also has brutal GNP from the guard. Personally, I think Algeo has a few holes Britto can exploit, and also has finishing potential early.

Sherman/Collier: Low lvl fight, I feel like there is a bit of recency bias. Sherman is usually a decent fav in these low lvl fights. He's coming off being at pick-em with Arlovaki and massive fav over Porter to being a dog to overweight Collier? I feel like the market undervalues Porter, so a 30-27 loss to him looks horrible. I personally think Porter is a notch above Collier, who went to a dec against a pregnant Vilante and got bloodied up, and a split dec to Fellipe whos a boxer and spends too much time taunting instead of throwing. Collier slowed down in both, so don't think Sherman's cardio concerns will be a big problem. Collier also doesn't pressure, he sticks on the outside and point fights. He is light on his feet and has some nice faints and strikes, but Sherman is the natural HW and has big power advantage. There are also the leg kicks, which could cripple Collier's movement and gass him out sooner. I think Sherman should be the slight fav here, and he is going to get a striking battle V a bad HW. Not decided whether I will hit it or not, il see how fat Collier is at weigh-ins.
Click to expand...

Gonna have a look at the Kelleher fight I think. I'm not entirely sold on why Saidyokub is the favourite here.
 
ExitLUPin said:
Love Kattar as the dog here. I'm getting serious Ortega/KZ vibes. Time off was good and Kattar will use a more wrestling heavy game IMO. I don't like Gigas cardio at all @ 145
Click to expand...

I like the fact that Kattar is really fucking tough to get out of there and is going to likely take Giga into deep waters. I can never be bothered to stay up late enough to live bet on the main card, but if Giga has a good first round you might get even better odds on Kattar.
 
ExitLUPin said:
Love Kattar as the dog here. I'm getting serious Ortega/KZ vibes. Time off was good and Kattar will use a more wrestling heavy game IMO. I don't like Gigas cardio at all @ 145
Click to expand...

Kattar is getting finished
 
Thinking about a ITD parlay for Giga vs Kattar, Royval vs Bono and Pickett vs Holmes
 
2c remainder:

Royval/Bontorin: Very volatile fight, I guess like all of Royvals fights. I feel like I can't lay the juice on a fighter who has no takedown defense and gives his back up to every single one of his opponents. Moreno kept him there most of the round and then he hurt his shoulder, and Pantoja caught him in the second even though he was gassed. Bontorin is a jits player and a great back taker, he also has big power and Royval stands upright and gets cracked a lot. I can see Royval winning minutes on the feet though as his volume is much greater, but I see him ending up on his back without any fuss. I don't want to lay the juice or play Bontorin who might lose down the stretch once he gets tired. Royval also came out and said he is fighting much more calmly, which adds another layer of unpredictablity. I feel like his style has won him lots of fights, not sure how he will look or if he will be true to his word.

Chook/Maia: I can honestly see this fight going the same way as the first. 29/28 either way, probably Chook. There haven't been many changes in either girl's style, other than both kind of seem to have improved. Not sure what to say here, Chook will stick and move, fight long, she can fight backward. Maia has good boxing and occasionally clinches, but her wrestling is pretty trash. Both are capable of having close fights with anyone in the division, I might hit Chook by DEC because she has the style down pat and she beats most girls that aren't the top 2.

Giga/Kattar: I have been underestimating Giga for a bit. He is clearly improving fight to fight, he fights a lot and is getting more comfortable in the cage. That said he is going from being a pick-em with Edson, to a 1.40 fav over Kattar. Overreaction on both the Max beating and the Giga KO over Edson. Kattar was a favorite in that Max fight, how quickly the tables turn. Giga is the type of fighter to give Kattar trouble, he is kick-heavy, switches stances, mixes it up to legs, body, and head. I feel like that Zabit fight was a similar look, Kattar was struggling early with all the looks, and he can't fight going backward. Max put him on the back foot early and he never recovered. Once he got his reads he won round 3 against Zabit and round 2 was very close. Feel like that was his fight in a 5 rounder. Kattar is the best fighter Giga has faced, and I think the lines should be a bit closer. Always thought Kattar was more of a 5 round fighter. He starts off slow, usually gets reads, and then opens up. His 1-2 is lethal enough to steal rounds or KO fighters clean. It sparked Fishgold, Lamas, and put Burgos on wobbly legs before the uppercut finish. Giga doesn't really pressure, he doesn't mind giving up the middle and kicking from afar. Value-wise I cant play Giga, but also cant play Kattar as I think he has it tough in the early going. Giga seemed to be fine going into the 4th against Barboza, and 2 judges had him 3-0 up which I didn't agree with. If Kattar would come out a bit more aggressive early he would have a good chance, his cardio is solid. Might look to live bet and see how Kattar looks after a year off.
 
Moggly's line is probably the one I'll go the heaviest on, maybe even ITD. TJ shouldn't even be in the UFC, is extremely hittable and can dive headfirst into guillotines.

I thought Benitez looked awful against Quarantillo, but he still tried to win up until the end and even dropped Billy despite being exhausted.
 
How do we feel about Pereira against Fialho?
 
Thesnake101 said:
Moggly's line is probably the one I'll go the heaviest on, maybe even ITD. TJ shouldn't even be in the UFC, is extremely hittable and can dive headfirst into guillotines.

I thought Benitez looked awful against Quarantillo, but he still tried to win up until the end and even dropped Billy despite being exhausted.
Click to expand...
Definitely not a good showing by Moggly but it is also incredibly difficult to get back into the fight against someone like Billy Q. The pace and pressure Billy Q brings is insane and trying to deal with that after being hurt badly is a tall task for anyone. Fortunately for Benitez, Brown's gas tank doesn't appear to be all that great.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Latest posts

Forum statistics

Threads
1,239,693
Messages
55,645,278
Members
174,871
Latest member
Pavy

Share this page

Back
Top