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Ronson is dropping down to LW my man, Tapology got it wrong
UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Muhammad 2
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Should be easy fight for Ogden if he plays it smart not to shoot for stupid takedowns. He is much better on the feet. Leavitt's only path is guard triangle or something like that. I could totally see Ogden pulling ahead in the striking then shooting for a random TD and making us all sweat. Ogden is kind of sub magnet which makes this fight tricky.
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The better dog this week is Jesse Ronson.
Much better striker, good tdd, reach, power, southpaw, experience, lost very close to great fighters as Kevin Lee, Trinaldo, Prazeres, Natan Schulte. Hes favorite imo. Garcia path to victory is maybe lay in play. Im on Ronson ML 1u.
Much better striker, good tdd, reach, power, southpaw, experience, lost very close to great fighters as Kevin Lee, Trinaldo, Prazeres, Natan Schulte. Hes favorite imo. Garcia path to victory is maybe lay in play. Im on Ronson ML 1u.
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Yea I had the same idea then I remembered some stuff.
Lina had a kid a year ago, with her trainer and boyfriend, this guy: https://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Akira-Corassani-22641. Granted his loses has aged very well for the most part but still. I think, but since I've had a couple of kids recently too I'm to tired to confirm, that she and some other fairly good female fighters made a big deal out of how retardedly bad Swedish sporting authorities are with helping pregnant athletes and that they more or less had to make shit up as they went as far as training and recovery went. I also know she commented that having a kid was no worse then a bad knee injury, but a bad knee injury at 40 at a light-ish weight class seems bad enough.
Also she lost to Pannie 10 years ago by TKO in her first fight when Pannie was 3-0 or something like that.
Prime-ish Lina is a must bet, this Lina seems like a clusterfuck of red flags. I'm all for yoloing on limited information from time to time but even then I'll probably stay away or play some dumb prop at big odds. Might tag along on dec.
Also lots of years ago I had a theory that Pannie was good when she looked happy and preferably hot at weight ins and absolutely sucked when she looked depressed. Haven't kept up with the research regarding that the last 5-6 years but just fwiw.
Fuck me I was huge on Zaleski -190. That was one of the best plays on this card imo
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Yeah, betting on girls in their first fight back after having a kid is something I tend to avoid. You have no idea what they're going to look like.
Not a fan of how old Ronson is. If he was maybe 3 years younger I'd be very high on him here. He is 100% at that age and at the point in his career where his tape becomes deceptive of how high his current skills are actually at. Also first time weight class shifts are always a red flag.
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Juice lords unloaded today on some favorites
Maybe drakkar will be bet up to -1000 and pannie -500
line up to lay down the chalk on low level wmma. Both elite plays
the higher the odds go the more these people want to bet it
Maybe drakkar will be bet up to -1000 and pannie -500
line up to lay down the chalk on low level wmma. Both elite plays
the higher the odds go the more these people want to bet it
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Yan busting their parlays wasn't enough to deter them it seems, they need to lose more juiced.
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Zaleski out
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I agree in some points but Ronson is natural LW and this fight in LW not WW.
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Luque/Nemkov/Sabatini for +200
Sabatini by sub is a good play, 10 subs in 16 wins, 2 in his last 5. Really good on the mat, trains with Sean Brady out of Daniel Gracie's. Laramie looking to bounce back after getting subbed in under a minute by Minner.
Sabatini by sub is a good play, 10 subs in 16 wins, 2 in his last 5. Really good on the mat, trains with Sean Brady out of Daniel Gracie's. Laramie looking to bounce back after getting subbed in under a minute by Minner.
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What is Knight's ptv against Clark? A punchers chance? Both are natural LHW's fighting at HW. Grishin took Knight down with ease and Clark is better offensive wrestler than him also has good gas tank. I'm surprised Clark isn't bigger favorite am I missing something?
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Clark isn't very good at taking people down and keeping them there though, he usually wall and stalls them. No clue how his chin will look at HW, and he's sloppy enough to get caught.
If the odds remain how they are, or get wider, I don't see why Knight wouldn't be the side here.
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You sound like Knight has any good getup game. He looks fish outta water on the ground. Clark just gonna lay on him and tire him out. Jung took him down 8 times. Brundage had Knight backmounted until Herb stole the position from him. Clark could get caught for sure tho. Knight does well against generalists like Cherant, Camur etc but not well against good wrestlers. Clark vs Menifield is a good proof of what Clark is capable of.
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lets break this shit down, 2c:
Alateng/Croom: Shit show fight. Croom dropping down to BW first time since 2015. He is going to be huge here but I have lots of questions. I already didn't like his gass tank up at FW. He is also hittable and Alateng has a very nice right hand and decent power. I can't play Alateng at almost -200 he is too stupid and too low volume and barely uses his wrestling. I was pulling my hair out in that last fight, giving up a point in the third after cruising to a 2-0 lead. On rewatch he is lucky he cracked Gustavo in the first otherwise he would have lost round 1. Croom was out striking Boom before Boom started to wrestle. Croom has a real shot here if he just sticks and moves and doesn't get cracked. Alateng might not shoot till late, as long as Croom doesn't keep clinching because he honestly can't wrestle for shit. Dog or pass here easy.
Nunes/Hughes: I have 2u on Nunes at 1.50. Might be a typical WMMA sweat, but Hughes ain't UFC lvl. I was impressed with Nunes before her debut and I was impressed by her even in the loss. She has good pop on her strikes, good footwork to circle off the cage and was good at working her way up to the feet before she gassed. Carnelossi is like a Walmart Andrade, some of the shots she took would no doubt at least drop Hughes. Hughes needed to pressure Pinheiro to gass her out and she did nothing. Nunes has a weakness in her ground game but unless she fights like a spastic I don't think Hughes is the one to take advantage.
Ogden/Levitt: Taping this I thought Levitt was easy money. Then I got closer to the end and Mr.Sadistic got in my ear about Ogden being the side due to improvements recently, but I couldn't see it on tape which made it hard. He has LVL'ed up to Brown belt and has been competing in Jits a lot recently, but I can't get those three round 1 sub loses out of my mind. He also can't seem to fight without shooting for a takedown. He still sticks his neck in the wrong spot and gets swept by not-amazing fighters. Levitt was slowing down in his last fight which leads me to believe he hasn't fixed the cardio problem he had against Puelles. We can see that same result, or a Levitt sub at some point. Too volatile for me so passed.
Barnett/Buday: I am trying to not overthink this one. I see a lot of people saying they can't play Buday at -200 because he is so shit. Possibly, but I think he breaks Barnett over the 3 rounds. He is a big boy, plodding forward eating shots, and once he corners you he starts breaking you down with clinch strikes or takedowns. His hands ain't too bad when he starts to let them go, but he just sucks at cutting the cage off so there is a lot of following and missing. Barnett will probably do OK early, leg kick, and move on the outside racking up points. But once he gets tired from the pressure he will start falling apart. I have 2u on Buday at 1.50. If those bombs from Hood didn't wobble Buday he should be safe here.
Clark/Knight: I see a bit of recency bias here due to Maxim shutting down Knight for 3 rounds. Clark isn't Maxim, and he is also moving up to HW due to the lack of preparation ( his words ). I see this more as the Manefield fight, a complete mess. Clark will consistently shoot, and cage push. His wrestling is overrated in my mind, he has a good explosive entry but fails to finish a lot of the time so just ends up against the cage. He also gets taken down a lot himself by Stosic, Smith, and Ion. Knight can for sure take him down, he slammed Grisham a few times and Grisham is a big boy with good TDD. Being on the bottom of Knight is no good and usually ends in a KO. Before the Cutelaba fight, everyone thought Clark was winning a DEC or getting KOed in every match, but he showed insane heart in that one. I think I have to play Knight at this line out of principle, I can see him losing minutes getting taken down and then landing a bomb or two to steal rounds or finish the fight. Knight is also very hard to control on the ground.
Alateng/Croom: Shit show fight. Croom dropping down to BW first time since 2015. He is going to be huge here but I have lots of questions. I already didn't like his gass tank up at FW. He is also hittable and Alateng has a very nice right hand and decent power. I can't play Alateng at almost -200 he is too stupid and too low volume and barely uses his wrestling. I was pulling my hair out in that last fight, giving up a point in the third after cruising to a 2-0 lead. On rewatch he is lucky he cracked Gustavo in the first otherwise he would have lost round 1. Croom was out striking Boom before Boom started to wrestle. Croom has a real shot here if he just sticks and moves and doesn't get cracked. Alateng might not shoot till late, as long as Croom doesn't keep clinching because he honestly can't wrestle for shit. Dog or pass here easy.
Nunes/Hughes: I have 2u on Nunes at 1.50. Might be a typical WMMA sweat, but Hughes ain't UFC lvl. I was impressed with Nunes before her debut and I was impressed by her even in the loss. She has good pop on her strikes, good footwork to circle off the cage and was good at working her way up to the feet before she gassed. Carnelossi is like a Walmart Andrade, some of the shots she took would no doubt at least drop Hughes. Hughes needed to pressure Pinheiro to gass her out and she did nothing. Nunes has a weakness in her ground game but unless she fights like a spastic I don't think Hughes is the one to take advantage.
Ogden/Levitt: Taping this I thought Levitt was easy money. Then I got closer to the end and Mr.Sadistic got in my ear about Ogden being the side due to improvements recently, but I couldn't see it on tape which made it hard. He has LVL'ed up to Brown belt and has been competing in Jits a lot recently, but I can't get those three round 1 sub loses out of my mind. He also can't seem to fight without shooting for a takedown. He still sticks his neck in the wrong spot and gets swept by not-amazing fighters. Levitt was slowing down in his last fight which leads me to believe he hasn't fixed the cardio problem he had against Puelles. We can see that same result, or a Levitt sub at some point. Too volatile for me so passed.
Barnett/Buday: I am trying to not overthink this one. I see a lot of people saying they can't play Buday at -200 because he is so shit. Possibly, but I think he breaks Barnett over the 3 rounds. He is a big boy, plodding forward eating shots, and once he corners you he starts breaking you down with clinch strikes or takedowns. His hands ain't too bad when he starts to let them go, but he just sucks at cutting the cage off so there is a lot of following and missing. Barnett will probably do OK early, leg kick, and move on the outside racking up points. But once he gets tired from the pressure he will start falling apart. I have 2u on Buday at 1.50. If those bombs from Hood didn't wobble Buday he should be safe here.
Clark/Knight: I see a bit of recency bias here due to Maxim shutting down Knight for 3 rounds. Clark isn't Maxim, and he is also moving up to HW due to the lack of preparation ( his words ). I see this more as the Manefield fight, a complete mess. Clark will consistently shoot, and cage push. His wrestling is overrated in my mind, he has a good explosive entry but fails to finish a lot of the time so just ends up against the cage. He also gets taken down a lot himself by Stosic, Smith, and Ion. Knight can for sure take him down, he slammed Grisham a few times and Grisham is a big boy with good TDD. Being on the bottom of Knight is no good and usually ends in a KO. Before the Cutelaba fight, everyone thought Clark was winning a DEC or getting KOed in every match, but he showed insane heart in that one. I think I have to play Knight at this line out of principle, I can see him losing minutes getting taken down and then landing a bomb or two to steal rounds or finish the fight. Knight is also very hard to control on the ground.
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Wait, what?
Thanks man, I've totally missed this... what in the world is Rafa Garcia moving up for? I really don't understand that, the guy is a small lightweight with a poor gas tank... this is nightmare material for him, surely?
