UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Hill

For the first time in forever I didn't watch any TUF this season, was gonna start it late but heard it was ass. Any of the finalists good?
 
I like Egger to win. Should be able to control things from top position, also fading Witt against someone with power here again.
 
Post 2 Decision said:
For the first time in forever I didn't watch any TUF this season, was gonna start it late but heard it was ass. Any of the finalists good?
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TUF being ass is why most people on Sherdog stopped watching it years ago. It's been 10 years for me.

The last season of TUF I watched was the live season. It had Cruz and Faber as the coaches, and introduced many former UFC and current UFC fighters like Vinc Pichel, Al Iaquinta, and Michael Chiesa. Some notables who were eliminated early include guys like Drew Dover and James Krause.

Real talk, the live season was the best season ever. It produced way more notable fighters than I didn't list above, and we still see some of them do well in the UFC all these years later.
 
Bah was hoping Battle's line would be a bit narrower. He's the kind of guy I love to bet. Not special in any area but high volume, well rounded, good cardio. Knows how to win rounds.

His decision prop might be the way I play it.
 
Sam Alvey continous his losing streak for sure.On first sight Michal-Luque parlay at plus money seems fine
 
Ridge12 said:
Usman's brother is horrible. Got subbed in his only PFL fight as a huge favorite prior to TUF. Pauga should roll here.
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Other dude is a bloated average at best looking lhw. Is Usman really that bad lol. I heard he arguably lost all of his fights on the show as well
 
The Judo Champ said:
Other dude is a bloated average at best looking lhw. Is Usman really that bad lol. I heard he arguably lost all of his fights on the show as well
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Pauga has solid takedown defense though, right? Trains at elevation too, line seems about right.

Think Bartling was a decently hyped prospect wrestler and he got beaten by Pauga.
 
Thesnake101 said:
Pauga has solid takedown defense though, right? Trains at elevation too, line seems about right.

Think Bartling was a decently hyped prospect wrestler and he got beaten by Pauga.
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honestly that’s fair. Looking at their pre tuf records I would’ve picked Bartling to win. Sad to see the skill level fall so low in Tuf. The show use to bring several sound fighters and often the whole card was stacked with numerous fighters from tuf. Now it seems even the winners will likely washout sooner than later.

I don’t like many on this card. Either I’m ignorant on the fighters themselves or the lines too big. In PFL Stevie ray at -150 over Pettis seems like easy money though.

i like Luque at -200 and bet that. Probably gonna parlay Spivak, Hill and battle to get more juice for the squeeze.


Anyone have any suggestions on the female fights? Seems they’re all pick ems
 
The Judo Champ said:
honestly that’s fair. Looking at their pre tuf records I would’ve picked Bartling to win. Sad to see the skill level fall so low in Tuf. The show use to bring several sound fighters and often the whole card was stacked with numerous fighters from tuf. Now it seems even the winners will likely washout sooner than later.

I don’t like many on this card. Either I’m ignorant on the fighters themselves or the lines too big. In PFL Stevie ray at -150 over Pettis seems like easy money though.

i like Luque at -200 and bet that. Probably gonna parlay Spivak, Hill and battle to get more juice for the squeeze.


Anyone have any suggestions on the female fights? Seems they’re all pick ems
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Only feel comfortable with Egger since she's going up against a BJJ girl who's far too willing to stay on her back hunting for subs while giving away control time, and Stephanie has got some pretty decent grappling accolades to go along with some nice wins as well.

McKenna and Lipski should win if they grapple their opponents, but I don't trust their fight IQ at all. Have no clue about the female TUF final though, don't know either.
 
Thesnake101 said:
Only feel comfortable with Egger since she's going up against a BJJ girl who's far too willing to stay on her back hunting for subs while giving away control time, and Stephanie has got some pretty decent grappling accolades to go along with some nice wins as well.

McKenna and Lipski should win if they grapple their opponents, but I don't trust their fight IQ at all. Have no clue about the female TUF final though, don't know either.
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Lipski is better everywhere but such a flake. I'll probably bet her, then regret it when she does something stupid and loses.
 
mkess101 said:
Lipski is better everywhere but such a flake. I'll probably bet her, then regret it when she does something stupid and loses.
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I definitely don’t line lipski against a pressure fighter who hits hard. Expect her to crumble

-180 for her is crazy
 
Captain Chesapeake said:
I definitely don’t line lipski against a pressure fighter who hits hard. Expect her to crumble

-180 for her is crazy
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Yeah. She will be technically better, piece Cachoeira up, and inevitably decide at some point to back up to the cage and get teed off on. I'll just pass most likely.
 
mkess101 said:
Yeah. She will be technically better, piece Cachoeira up, and inevitably decide at some point to back up to the cage and get teed off on. I'll just pass most likely.
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Oh she’s definitely better technically but she’s being overvalued because she looked good against bohm

she hasn’t shown that’s she’s got all her skills together and can cohesively fight for three rounds. Like you said, she’s a flake and she will make it close.

Zombie girl can win rounds with her forward pressure and landing flashier punches.
 
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Thesnake101 said:
Pauga has solid takedown defense though, right? Trains at elevation too, line seems about right.

Think Bartling was a decently hyped prospect wrestler and he got beaten by Pauga.
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Pauga been doing mma a short time though. his story basically is that he was a cop with a rugby/football background like Volk. While he seems to be the favorite, Usman is a bigger wrestler than Bartling and could expose Pauga’ grappling.Usman has only really lost his PFL debut because the guy he fought was a bjj brown belt.Im not thoroughly convinced that Pauga can avoid Usman’s wrestling, Bartling may just be a wrestler with solid td but shitty top control. inexperience is gd reason to fade Pauga here.
 
Stat_Collector said:
Pauga been doing mma a short time though. his story basically is that he was a cop with a rugby/football background like Volk. While he seems to be the favorite, Usman is a bigger wrestler than Bartling and could expose Pauga’ grappling.Usman has only really lost his PFL debut because the guy he fought was a bjj brown belt.Im not thoroughly convinced that Pauga can avoid Usman’s wrestling, Bartling may just be a wrestler with solid td but shitty top control. inexperience is gd reason to fade Pauga here.
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Here's the thing though, Usman's wrestling has never been anything better than mediocre. You know how Mayes got tossed around by every half competent wrestler he's ever faced? Crowder, Nascimento and most recently Hamdy? Usman never even came close to taking him down.

I followed Mohammed way back when he first started out but he follows the MMA brother curse of being the complete opposite of Kamaru in terms of adapting to MMA. Don't think he had a wrestling background either iirc, think he did football.

I could be off, but I honestly don't see him posing much threat to Zac unless he flashes some gnarly KO power.
 
Stat_Collector said:
Pauga been doing mma a short time though. his story basically is that he was a cop with a rugby/football background like Volk. While he seems to be the favorite, Usman is a bigger wrestler than Bartling and could expose Pauga’ grappling.Usman has only really lost his PFL debut because the guy he fought was a bjj brown belt.Im not thoroughly convinced that Pauga can avoid Usman’s wrestling, Bartling may just be a wrestler with solid td but shitty top control. inexperience is gd reason to fade Pauga here.
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I'm not sure Usman is any bigger than Pauga
 
Lipski only loses to people that wrestle her. That being said she gets wrestled a lot.

Santos probably could beat Hilll if he suddenly remembers that to win fights you have to do something. He is in that Woodley territory imo. But he is still pretty damn hard to finish at lhw so don't get too reckless with itd's.
 
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