UFC FN: Max Holloway vs. Arnold Allen, April 15

[Danis_champ]

Pierra beat two okay grinders in Hansen and Hughes and did so it without too much trouble. I wonder if the change of weigh class makes Gillians takedwons a tad bit stronger. Her glaring weakness so far in her grappling.

and in both occasions fight went to the ground. Piera lost one round to both. Gillian should get it done..

 

[xhaydenx]

Pierra beat two okay grinders in Hansen and Hughes and did so it without too much trouble. I wonder if the change of weigh class makes Gillians takedwons a tad bit stronger. Her glaring weakness so far in her grappling.

Her glaring weakness is really just her total lack of athleticism.

Piera did well to out-hustle Hansen and Hughes, though they were close fights in the end.

I'll probably do Gill SUB as usual and not be surprised if she disappoints lol.

 

[xhaydenx]

Anyone like Bruna Brasil to beat Gomes?

Bruna's counter grappling is getting better, and Gomes's grappling was crap against Loma, who was either stuffing her attempts, reversing them, or just hitting her own tds.

Pressure, straight strikes, and tds are the way to beat Brasil. She can get outworked as she doesn't throw enough as well.

But I'm thinking she lands enough at range to keep Gomes from rushing in too much. Bruna won't be the one going forward at all. She'll be back-pedaling and Gomes's tds will likely end with them clinched against the cage, which isn't that bad for Bruna. She can hit good head and arm throws from there.

If it does go to the ground, Gomes might not even have much of an advantage. I can see Bruna hitting reversals as easy as Loma did.

 

[sonhow]

Her glaring weakness is really just her total lack of athleticism.

Piera did well to out-hustle Hansen and Hughes, though they were close fights in the end.

I'll probably do Gill SUB as usual and not be surprised if she disappoints lol.

Well yes she tends to struggle against the more physical, bigger girls. Don't think Pierra falls to that category. Though I think i have lost twice against Pierra and that gets me a bit wary.

 

[Captain Chesapeake]

Ive gone big on Allen in the ME. I think he makes it easy vs Max.

Seeing Max at weigh in, legend of a fighter, but I think the guy has been hit one too many times in the head....

People said this vs kattar

 

[Captain Chesapeake]

and in both occasions fight went to the ground. Piera lost one round to both. Gillian should get it done..

Because two girls with better takedowns won a round, Gillian should get it done? Great analysis.

both those girls chain wrestle and set up their takedowns. Gillian has a single leg and that’s it.
hughes didn’t even get a takedown she just came on late in rd 3 as usual. It wasn’t a close fight

Piera will take gillian down and beat her up just like other grapplers like taila santos did. Gillian content to play off her back and give away rounds

and she’s the favorite even though she’ll get out struck

Piera Dec +275

 

[Dooze]

Gillian not being able to get it down is a worry but her cutting down might help with that. Being the bigger woman could help with stuffing Pieras takedowns as well - defending them briefly may help to open up grappling exchanges where Robertson will obviously look for the back take.

I wouldn't play Robertson straight up here - I think if it stays on the feet she loses a decision just because her striking is bad, and there's definitely a worry that she might find herself taken down and controlled.

Any time I bet her I just do the sub prop - for all her flaws her she's very good at backtakes and RNC's - it's a bit like LW Chiesa or Cody McKenzie - they know what theyre good at and will spend the fight going for it - I'd only ever really bet her by sub and generally not against elite fighters or people I know will be able to avoid the ground game entirely but dropping down will hopefully help her use her size advantage to get takedowns in lieu of technique.

 

[Captain Chesapeake]

Gillian not being able to get it down is a worry but her cutting down might help with that. Being the bigger woman could help with stuffing Pieras takedowns as well - defending them briefly may help to open up grappling exchanges where Robertson will obviously look for the back take.

I wouldn't play Robertson straight up here - I think if it stays on the feet she loses a decision just because her striking is bad, and there's definitely a worry that she might find herself taken down and controlled.

Any time I bet her I just do the sub prop - for all her flaws her she's very good at backtakes and RNC's - it's a bit like LW Chiesa or Cody McKenzie - they know what theyre good at and will spend the fight going for it - I'd only ever really bet her by sub and generally not against elite fighters or people I know will be able to avoid the ground game entirely but dropping down will hopefully help her use her size advantage to get takedowns in lieu of technique.

Is it really going to be a big size advantage? Piera looks stronger and is the better athlete.
Just being a few pounds heavier isn’t magically going to help her takedowns

I have Piera capped as a slight favorite here.

 

[Edmond_Dantes]

Ive gone big on Allen in the ME. I think he makes it easy vs Max.

Seeing Max at weigh in, legend of a fighter, but I think the guy has been hit one too many times in the head....

could you expand on this? I'm thinking about going heavy on Allen as well. what's making you pull the trigger on this?

 

[Guld]

I'm not going heavy on anything this card. A couple of pre fight sprinkles, maybe a prop or two.
Mostly gonna livebet and hope for the best.

 

[Dooze]

Is it really going to be a big size advantage? Piera looks stronger and is the better athlete.
Just being a few pounds heavier isn’t magically going to help her takedowns

I have Piera capped as a slight favorite here.

I don't think it'll be a big size advantage but I don't think Gillian was particularly strong at 125.

I probably worded it a bit badly - she'll probably generally be a bit taller than most at 115 and I think there'll be less of a strength discrepancy compared to what Gillian is used to which could help in her getting people down.

I probably agree with you in terms of Piera being a slight favourite - like I said I wouldn't play her straight up because i think she has a lot less paths to victory - I do think her sub prop has a bit of value though and is the only worthwhile bet if you're looking to play Gillian; if she is able to implement her gameplan she likely gets it done. If she can't get it down she's going to lose on the feet and if she's repeatedly taken down she will likely lose unless she's able to snag a sub off her back or create a scramble that sees her taking the back.

 

[MoroccanFan]

Little crazy parlay

 

[SolarSeiko]

I think Cutelaba wins by decision.

• O1.5 is -148
• Cutelaba decision is between +500 and +800

This. I think ion has changed his fight style since fighting magomed. He's much more of an mma fighter vs his wanderlei imitation.

 

[po_thead]

So far I have boser,
A flier on Billy Q TKO 3
And Allen Dec

 

[Danis_champ]

Because two girls with better takedowns won a round, Gillian should get it done? Great analysis.

both those girls chain wrestle and set up their takedowns. Gillian has a single leg and that’s it.
hughes didn’t even get a takedown she just came on late in rd 3 as usual. It wasn’t a close fight

Piera will take gillian down and beat her up just like other grapplers like taila santos did. Gillian content to play off her back and give away rounds

and she’s the favorite even though she’ll get out struck

Piera Dec +275

In your face! your bet fails.

Big Gillian bet hits.

Easy money.