UFC Fox 20: holm vs shevchenko - chicago

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I've only seen Schevchenko's UFC fights but her striking hasn't looked overly impressive to me. Her clinch work looked good against Nunes in the third round (we all know about Nunes' gas tank) but not so much against Kaufman. She does have some nice judo throws but once the fight hits the ground she doesn't seem to be able to mount any kind of offense. Granted both of her opponents have been better on the ground than Holm.

I think Holly will be able to keep this fight where she wants it, control the distance, and score enough to win a decision. Holm decision +120 is most likely going to be my play
 
weedreference said:
I already have 2u on Schevchenko at +330. There is no way she should be that big a dog in this spot. Small striking disadvantage, small grappling advantage. Her cardio seems good for a 5 rounder.
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idk on cardio. anyone can look good in rd 3 vs nunes.. she almost got finished in rd 3 by kaufman
 
Yea I'm on Shevchenko pretty big at these odds.

I think Shevchenko has a decent sized edge in the clinch and won't be outclassed standing, even thought Holm has the edge with range and boxing. Both of them has shown some issues with how active they are, tending to fight down to the level of their opponent in some cases, but I don't think Shevchenko will be to afraid of Holms power given how her chin seems to be really solid and Holm doesn't really have much power outside of her kicks. Overall I think Shevchenko is a better finisher given how she has a bunch of submissions too.

I do think Holm has better cardio, but in a pure stand up fight I don't think it'll be much of an issue. That said Holm is 34 years old now and might start to get worse with age. Don't think it'll show, but either way she's not getting younger.

Issues for Shevchenko might be that her camps seems to have been weird (coach got shot, been all over the place etc) and that Holm has better coaches and training partners.

Also I can't get over how Holly always has the same game plan (stick and move) and a fairly consistent way of fighting which I guess a really good muay thai fighter should be able to abuse a bit. Overall I think Holm should be favoured, but 3.8 or whatever I got her at seems really high.

Also the Kaufman fight was on eight days notice so her taking the third round off doesn't say much.
 
^^ true on the 3rd of the kaufman fight, could be right
 
EzFlyer said:
idk on cardio. anyone can look good in rd 3 vs nunes.. she almost got finished in rd 3 by kaufman
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Good to know. As usual I slack in watching tape for chick fights. I remember her losing the third, but not being in trouble. With Holm's pace I am still confident the cardio will hold up.
 
weedreference said:
Good to know. As usual I slack in watching tape for chick fights. I remember her losing the third, but not being in trouble. With Holm's pace I am still confident the cardio will hold up.
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yea but @Slohog reminded us that it was short notice for shev against kauf
 
in lieu of watching tape, kaufman-shevchenko rd 3:

Round 3
Kaufman presses forward early, navigating past some long kicks from Shevchenko to clinch up once again. Shevchenko tries another throw, but Kaufman lands in the whizzer and gets back to her feet to continue the clinching. Shevchenko turns Kaufman against the fence with an underhook, trips her to the ground but can’t hold her down. The fighters circle back to the center to strike with 3:30 left in the bout. Shevchenko misses with a spinning kick and gets wrapped up by Kaufman, who shoots for a single-leg against the fence and finally succeeds in dragging Shevchenko to the ground. Kaufman passes to side control on Shevchenko’s left and leans across to deliver some horizontal elbows to the head. Shevchenko pivots to kick off the fence and winds up with Kaufman straddling her face in north-south position. Kaufman passes to side control, grabs for a keylock but can’t get hold of Shevchenko’s far arm. Suddenly, Shevchenko is the one being overpowered, with Kaufman just pinning her to the mat from cross-side position, throwing more elbows to the body. Kaufman goes back to hunting the far arm as they enter the final 60 seconds. Shevchenko spins back to north-south position and throws up an inverted triangle, but Kaufman sniffs it out early and pulls clear. Kaufman steps over to full mount in the last 15 seconds but gets bucked off and eats a right hand from Shevchenko as they scramble up at the horn.
Read more at http://www.sherdog.com/news/news/UF...fman-valentina-shevchenko#7dYXIUotPOXJSDxW.99
 
I do like Shev as a fighter, but do find that record and CV quite sketchy, 17 time MT world champ, Master in sport boxing and MT, could be genuine or most of her opponents could be very low tier opponents. Either way I don't agree with that split W with Sarah, had it 2-1 with ease and against nunes shev showed anyone who is much taller, bigger and packs more power she is on her back foot and even more cautious then ever, even nunes out boxed and kicked her that fight, it kind of tells me her past opponents have been much lower tier.

Holm is just a plain bad match up for Shev at this point number 7 gal going against number 2 or almost champ( if holm survived that last minute), holm has a far tedious and difficult style to deal with, side kicks, oblique kicks, hlks and boxing and jabs to make any girl cry, couple that with her cardio, bigger frame, more muscle and bigger height and reach advantage I feel holm takes this.

Yes shev can work her submissions or her MT clinches which is her real only way of success in this fight but holm has shown fast foot work for 5 rounds and jabs and escapes and more important good fight iq she don't need to go to the ground if she gets opponents there she just keeps distance and kicks their legs out.

Its WMMA and won't blame a soul after tate, but I am pretty confident in holm su, do feel she takes a decision but I imagine that prop line will be hit hard and fast.
 
I also like Shev but I think she gets picked apart by HH. I really like HH by decision in this fight. Both are very smart and I don't anticipate a finish of any kind.
 
Holm and shev could end up looking like a 25 minute sparring contest or staring match up.

Shev has also been saying this is the first time 2 female ufc fighters with excellent striking records are going at it, I sadly think unless shev is happy to grapple and clinch against the cage with holm she won't find to much success here. Holm will escape with foot work, size and strength and go back to what she does best, jab to face and side kick and set up her high kick which forces girls to move in opposite direction where she launches fast boxing combos.

Just a bad match up imo for shev at this point, also reckon that decision prop will be hammered but will be interesting to see that line.

Watched barzboza/Gilbert fights so will post a few thoughts on that fight later on!
 
Ukram said:
Holm and shev could end up looking like a 25 minute sparring contest or staring match up.

Shev has also been saying this is the first time 2 female ufc fighters with excellent striking records are going at it, I sadly think unless shev is happy to grapple and clinch against the cage with holm she won't find to much success here. Holm will escape with foot work, size and strength and go back to what she does best, jab to face and side kick and set up her high kick which forces girls to move in opposite direction where she launches fast boxing combos.

Just a bad match up imo for shev at this point, also reckon that decision prop will be hammered but will be interesting to see that line.

Watched barzboza/Gilbert fights so will post a few thoughts on that fight later on!
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Couldn't agree more
 
Ukram said:
I do like Shev as a fighter, but do find that record and CV quite sketchy, 17 time MT world champ, Master in sport boxing and MT, could be genuine or most of her opponents could be very low tier opponents.
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It is hard to question her record when she beat Joanna 3 times. All these girls kickboxing records are inflated, that's just that world tho. The main thing to learn from her KB career is that she won a lot of her bouts with her clinch game, like the JJ fights.

The real issue in the UFC for her is she is undersized, she should be fighting at 125 or 115 (like JJ). She just can't initiate her good clinch game against these big girls.

Regarding the odds, this is similar to the TJ fight last week, anyone playing the money line is nuts IMO. Will holly win, yes probably, but it will be a close fight the whole way. Rounds may be decided by one significant strike or a takedown. I wouldn't play a fight like that at worse than -200, let alone -400 or -350. (Let's not forget how holm gave away the last round to Pennington, and gave away the fight in the last round to Tate. She seems to get mentally fatigued in hard fights.)

My feelings atm are the holly Dec line prop is probably the best bet. The over is probably the safest bet, or starts round X. Schev ML is the only ML worth considering.
 
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I really wish that Barboza vs Melendez was the main event.

Why wouldn't you put the obvious barn burner as the headliner, and the probable snoozer as the 3 round co main?

oh well
 
Hasn't Melendez looked kind of done for a long time thought? I like the guy but I much prefer a fight that could be a title eliminator over a Melendez fight. Also there's bound to be a bunch of spinning shit and long-ish combinations and such so I don't think it'll be such a snoozer as some of you think.
 
i like not holm inside distance prop only -235 , will prob parlay with barboza and others (once i research other fights)

i dont see either girl ko ing the other , both are skilled on the feet with good chins and valentina is the only fighter in this matchup with a chance to finish by sub itd...hence my pick...

gilbert too inactive , not powerful enough or techinical boxing for him to setup takedowns against barboza , which he would need to. he cant win a pure standup battle ..therefore he loses a dec getting outpointed on feet or gets finished by strikes ...
 
Early thoughts on melendez/barboza

Gilbert has recently expressed how he is the 'older' guy and the younger guy got it talk, it feels like defeat talk before he has started really, not to suggest he is not incorrect melendez is 34 and an 22-5 record he certainly is at the end of his career and seems to be just getting in there for that pay packet. He does have the style to beat barboza but not the cardio imo his main success I feel will be to initiate that grapple against the cage where he clinches and looks for that take down, issue is while he can do this its only good for round 1.

Barboza is the better striker, has the better jab with his reach and range and kickboxing here. He also has excellent footwork and will look to get back to his feet or avoid that td altogether. Barboza can go at a decent pace for 3 rounds also and gilbert can not, he slows down in r2 and r3 and all barboza needs to do is circle via his faster foot work and land that leg kick and long jab to give gilbert issues for the entire fight.

Gilbert would literally need to fight at his best or a "johnson" type exceptional pressure based performance here to win just don't see it happening, I like barboza su or in a parlay with holm or barboza decision.
 
edole said:
I really wish that Barboza vs Melendez was the main event.

Why wouldn't you put the obvious barn burner as the headliner, and the probable snoozer as the 3 round co main?

oh well
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because holly holm beat ronda ><

casuals know her

it was gonna main event over freakin GT vs AJ.. such higher level/quality fight
 
Good news Brits. Fox prelims 11pm main card 1am with 4am finish.
 
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