UFC on ESPN 14: Whittaker vs. Till

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TheHouyhnhnm1

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https://www.bestfightodds.com/
 
Anyone wanna talk me out of unloading my bankroll on Whittaker over Till?
I'm watching Till vs Gastelum right now and he's so so inactive... 37 lands out of 69 attempts in a 3 round fight.
http://ufcstats.com/fight-details/7c40aa2cb6883a91

Even Gastelum of all people had nearly 50% more attempted strikes.

And from what I've heard Whittaker is in the best place mentally that he has been in a long time:


He sounds very very confident. And relaxed in a way he was not vs Adesanya.

Even in that Adesanya fight he did quite well except for the knockdowns that seemed to be a result of him being too wound up.

Against Till he will be able to be patient and still win rounds. I cap him at at least -230.

Current price is -115.

Till brings absolutely nothing that Whittaker hasn't seen in previous fights.

People have bet Till a bunch... seems like there's no rush to bet this but I think I'm gonna go huge on this one.

Any objections?

@mkess101
 
Last edited:
I pay basically no attention to what anyone says before a fight. How many times have we heard "I'm in the best shape of my life, I'm happy, I'm this, I'm that, I'm going to.." etc, only for them to look like complete shit or look exactly how they always did. Fighters are notoriously delusional (they have to be).

Whittaker looked terrible against Adesnaya. He had two absolute wars with Romero then got KO'd. He has had major surgeries and that weird pull out which he put down to "burnout". I don't believe that. At the time, Dana said "he is one of the most selfless people in the world" for pulling out. Makes no sense.

Anyway, because of all this, I think it's possible that he will never be the fighter he once was.

Till, on the other hand, is extremely good when he fights tactically. He started believing his own hype for a couple of fights and paid the price. Let's not forget how good Gastelum is. That fight was super high stakes for Till's career. He did what he had to do.

I'm not saying betting Whittaker is a terrible move, but to go as big as you're talking about, I don't know. As we all know, MMA is so unpredictable, but I don't think this fight is a lock in Whittaker's favor whatsoever.

It's absolutely possible that Whittaker comes out and looks amazing. It's also possible that I am right and he is past his best.

If Till is laser focused and sticks to a gameplan (Gastelum/Wonderboy fights), he really is hard to beat. I'm not sure Whittaker is a much better striker than either of those guys, and this fight will be contested on the feet.
 
XociDe said:
I pay basically no attention to what anyone says before a fight. How many times have we heard "I'm in the best shape of my life, I'm happy, I'm this, I'm that, I'm going to.." etc, only for them to look like complete shit or look exactly how they always did. Fighters are notoriously delusional (they have to be).

Whittaker looked terrible against Adesnaya. He had two absolute wars with Romero then got KO'd. He has had major surgeries and that weird pull out which he put down to "burnout". I don't believe that. At the time, Dana said "he is one of the most selfless people in the world" for pulling out. Makes no sense.

Anyway, because of all this, I think it's possible that he will never be the fighter he once was.

Till, on the other hand, is extremely good when he fights tactically. He started believing his own hype for a couple of fights and paid the price. Let's not forget how good Gastelum is. That fight was super high stakes for Till's career. He did what he had to do.

I'm not saying betting Whittaker is a terrible move, but to go as big as you're talking about, I don't know. As we all know, MMA is so unpredictable, but I don't think this fight is a lock in Whittaker's favor whatsoever.

It's absolutely possible that Whittaker comes out and looks amazing. It's also possible that I am right and he is past his best.

If Till is laser focused and sticks to a gameplan (Gastelum/Wonderboy fights), he really is hard to beat. I'm not sure Whittaker is a much better striker than either of those guys, and this fight will be contested on the feet.
Click to expand...

Appreciate the response though I disagree with the rule of ignoring interviews. I've definitely made reads that have helped me bet a number of times.

Really no reason to doubt Whitaker's narrative about burnout and feeling good now.
 
Wonder boy TKO’d Whittaker and Till “beat” Wonderboy so you have to think Till will look to replicate Wonderboys performance because they have similar styles. Till might be very confident and thinks he can win a decision if not stop Whittaker.

I wanted to put a few units on Whittaker but I think I’ll wait to live-bet this one unless something changes my mind.
 
I think if Rob gets back to feinting more and boxing instead of headhunting like he tried to do v Izzy he wins this comfortably.
Till is nothing special but being a lefty and pretty big makes it awkward but Rob can get inside and land like many have before v Till...

Gus should also have a pretty straight forward HW debut but odds reflect that. No opinion on the rest as yet
 
while i think whittaker should win, its not the best moment to put money on him. i like a small amount on a parlay with:


dalby + rodrgiuez + oliveira + rua

maybe a dalby stragiht money line
 
XociDe said:
I pay basically no attention to what anyone says before a fight. How many times have we heard "I'm in the best shape of my life, I'm happy, I'm this, I'm that, I'm going to.." etc, only for them to look like complete shit or look exactly how they always did. Fighters are notoriously delusional (they have to be).

Whittaker looked terrible against Adesnaya. He had two absolute wars with Romero then got KO'd. He has had major surgeries and that weird pull out which he put down to "burnout". I don't believe that. At the time, Dana said "he is one of the most selfless people in the world" for pulling out. Makes no sense.

Anyway, because of all this, I think it's possible that he will never be the fighter he once was.

Till, on the other hand, is extremely good when he fights tactically. He started believing his own hype for a couple of fights and paid the price. Let's not forget how good Gastelum is. That fight was super high stakes for Till's career. He did what he had to do.

I'm not saying betting Whittaker is a terrible move, but to go as big as you're talking about, I don't know. As we all know, MMA is so unpredictable, but I don't think this fight is a lock in Whittaker's favor whatsoever.

It's absolutely possible that Whittaker comes out and looks amazing. It's also possible that I am right and he is past his best.

If Till is laser focused and sticks to a gameplan (Gastelum/Wonderboy fights), he really is hard to beat. I'm not sure Whittaker is a much better striker than either of those guys, and this fight will be contested on the feet.
Click to expand...

Agreed. I've been duped by paying too much attention to interviews as well.

Can't recall many fighters saying: "Man, I'm dealing with so many injuries right now. My camp sucked. I'm not ready for this one and will probably lose"
 
Crimp_Keeper said:
Wonder boy TKO’d Whittaker and Till “beat” Wonderboy so you have to think Till will look to replicate Wonderboys performance because they have similar styles. Till might be very confident and thinks he can win a decision if not stop Whittaker.

I wanted to put a few units on Whittaker but I think I’ll wait to live-bet this one unless something changes my mind.
Click to expand...
Not sure we should be factoring in fights 6 years ago
 
Till all day, Robert is done.
Whittaker should retire after this fighter.
Till will win via ko round 1 or 2
 
70a7c806004865b88b2a94a39f1df6ac.png


I'm in 2 minds about whether or not to cash this out.

I feel like Nog at 44 is going to be moving in slow motion. Obviously Shogun is washed as well but I don't see how he loses, especially if he decides to grapple.

Any thoughts? I'm 50/50 atm, because it would genuinely hurt if Shogun lost to a 44 year old Nogueira.
 
Grundy-Evloev line is interesting. I remember taping Evloev a lot before the Barzola fight with a lot of confidence in him, and I think Barzola won that fight. Evloev's a good standup fighter but in most of his fights, he CONSTANTLY puts himself in scrambles, wild exchanges, and compromising positions. It's inevitably gonna go wrong for him. He seems at his best when he has a grappling edge, and I'm not sure he has that here. Grundy feels like good value to me.
 
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