UFC on ESPN 2 Barboza vs Gaethje
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I like here Gaethje, MJ and Branch. Gaethje can get KO, but i believe he have style on Barboza, pressure, always going forward and he have really good dirty boxing, better cardio, chin and he can use his wrestling to mix thing up.
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Will be on Barboza, KH, Barzola, Mazo.
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Gaethje is a walking punching bag, I don't think he can withstand Barboza's viscous kicks for 5 rounds. From recent memory Barboza has struggled vs wrestlers and Gaethje doesn't elect to go that route, enjoys putting on a show for the crowd with his striking.
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I'm waiting on your picks jimgunn so I can tail you...
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How do you see Barzola winning? I think Aguilar looks like a real talent. He didn’t look great on dwcs but that was at 155 on short notice. The other fights of his I’ve seen he looks great.
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I'm a big AXS fan so I've been following The Angel of Death for awhile. He's not the best athlete but has power and cardio and grit but I always thought he might be able to get wrestle fucked. I think more highly of Barzolas wrestling than I do Kevin's anti wrestling.
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Is there a fight I should watch that gave you that impression? Aguilar takedown d looks solid to me. Barzola wrestling looks ok but he is fighting guys that can’t wrestle at all.
I just watched a couple more Barzola fights. I don’t see it man. Even when he does get takedowns he doesn’t have great control. On the feet it’s mostly hands down with occasional big shots.
Edit: watched Aguilar vs Kelley. He does get taken down a few times in that fight and wrestling instincts weren’t great. It was 3 years ago tho. I already put 300 on Aguilar. Was looking to put more but think I will pass
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Maybe it's still a bit raw in my memory, but I think this might be a bad match up for Branch. In terms of skill he should have it, but it's twice in two fights recently we've seen him wilt under pressure when hurt after starting well. I dunno if it's a case of him tiring or what, but he seemed to slow down a bit against Rockhold and although was put in a bad position, tapped to strikes that although weren't nice, didn't look that hard really.
Against Cannonier he started well, got dropped by a good shot then just covered up and seemed to quit. The fight against Santos was a relatively quick finish where he was never really put in any bad situations.
Jack is a tough dude with some solid ground and pound. If Branch can't put him out early I wouldn't be at all surprised to see him win the first round then just fade out of the fight in the 2nd half, get put in a bad position by Jack and just turtle/cover up and force the ref to step in.
He very much seems like one of those fighters that can be a hammer but not the nail.
Against Cannonier he started well, got dropped by a good shot then just covered up and seemed to quit. The fight against Santos was a relatively quick finish where he was never really put in any bad situations.
Jack is a tough dude with some solid ground and pound. If Branch can't put him out early I wouldn't be at all surprised to see him win the first round then just fade out of the fight in the 2nd half, get put in a bad position by Jack and just turtle/cover up and force the ref to step in.
He very much seems like one of those fighters that can be a hammer but not the nail.
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I tend to agree with you on your analysis and if i'm going to be on someone it will be Jack in this. But i'm wondering if Jack isn't the same, can be a hammer but not the nail that is. Sure, you may look at this victory over Leites where he suffered a rib injury early and persevered but if you look at his fight with Thiago Santos, and sure Santos can crack, but Jack didn't show the Askren type of willingness to take punishment - more like the Zak Ottow type. I should probably not write this without rewatching that fight but I do remember this quite distinctly.
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Idk how Kevin Holland has got so much hype. A pretty one sided loss to Santos where he got outgrappled easily then a relatively underwhelming fight with the worst fighter in the division. Meerschaert might not be great but given how Santos outgrappled Holland I'm happy to gamble Meerschaert can do the same when he's in the +200 range.
Karolina should maul Waterson imo. Her clinch game is nasty and her TDD always underrated so I doubt Waterson gets her down especially with the size difference. Waterson can try playing the long game but I'm not convinced she can just dance around the outside for 15 minutes and those Karolina clinch knees should slow her down as they did to Namajunas.
Barzola via wrestle fuck, not sold on Aguilar at all and his DWCS fight confirmed that enough for me. Not like Barzola can't strike either, looked good on the feet against Brandon Davis in his last fight whose a very tricky striker (just ask Zabit). Think he takes a pretty easy decision here as per usual.
Karolina should maul Waterson imo. Her clinch game is nasty and her TDD always underrated so I doubt Waterson gets her down especially with the size difference. Waterson can try playing the long game but I'm not convinced she can just dance around the outside for 15 minutes and those Karolina clinch knees should slow her down as they did to Namajunas.
Barzola via wrestle fuck, not sold on Aguilar at all and his DWCS fight confirmed that enough for me. Not like Barzola can't strike either, looked good on the feet against Brandon Davis in his last fight whose a very tricky striker (just ask Zabit). Think he takes a pretty easy decision here as per usual.
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I'm basing off of memory at the moment. I'll get back to you in more detail soon. Trust in your read I always say tho
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Also think branch is at the tail end of his career. Hermasson has a very effective top game. If he gets Branch down, I think he will punish him. Branch does have good wrestling tho and hermasson looks out of his element on the feet.
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I had a strong lean towards Barzola pre tape, but I gotta pass unless I can get near +150. His lack of top control is the big issue for me. On the feet he doesn't keep his hands up and hangs out in the pocket. Aguilar loads up on most everything so the TDs will be there more than usual but I don't see him staying on top for long.
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Branch bottled it after the good will of that Santos win. Hermansson is at least up for it win or lose.
