UFC on ESPN+ 21 Magomedsharipov vs Kattar Official Bets

Decided to hedge Pannie and Roberson.

0u on Jessica to win 0.8u

0u on Kopylov to win 1.44u


Still on Grant. to win 5.61u


Edit:
Had some more bets

1u on Yakovlev ML at 2.30
0.2u on Yakovlev NSC at 3.45
0.2u on Yakovlev Submssion at 13.0
0.2u on Yakovlev R3 at 24.00


1u on Ankalaev TKO/KO at 2.75

1u on Emeev at 1.77

1u on Volkov TKO/KO at 2.60

Planned to bet Abreu, but line dropped to much.


Wauw, amazing event. I definitely shouldnt have hedged Pannie Kianzad and Roberson, but difficult to say no to free bets. Glad i didnt hedge Grant though.

Overall pre-bet profit is: +3.96u, so another winning event and hopefully the streak continues next week. I have some good bets for that event too(imo obviously)
 
Zabit ML - 2.5u for 1.5u (-166)
Kattar Round 3 - 0.1u for 1.7u (+1700)
Volkov Decision - 1u for 2.75u (+275)
Over 1.5 Rounds - 2u for 1.8u (-110)
FGTD - 1u for 2.08u (+208)
Martin ML - 3u for 3u (+100)
Martin Decision - 0.61u for 1.59u (+260)
Martin Submission - 0.39u for 2.32u (+600)
Ankalaev ML - 3.35u for 2.66u (-126)
Khabilov ML - 2.5u for 1.44u (-173)
Kianzad ML - 2u for 2u (+100)
Herman ML - 1u for 1.6u (+160)
Abreu ML - 0.5u for 0.88u (+175)
Abreu Submission - 0.25u for 1.36u (+545)
O1.5 Popov-Grant + O1 Roberson-Kopylov + O1 Roberts-Yakovlev - 1u for 1.2u
O2.5: Yokvlev-Roberts + Kianzad-JRC + Khandozkho-Khabilov - 1u for 1.28u


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3u on Kattar at +260
4u on Volkov at -250
0.6u on Danny Roberts at +195

Broke even on the pre-bets, but missed 0.6u on Kopylov at +130 after round 1 and 0.6u on Khandozhko at +140 after round 1, for the card's margin of -1.2u.

Probably should have gone the full 1u on Roberts, despite my misgivings, but overall, really happy with all my plays and relative bet amounts. You almost always live-bet the guy you thought won round 1 at significant plus odds, regardless of whether that works out, and it took significant improvement for Zabit to escape against Kattar. (Round 2 was a lot closer than the crowd and announcers gave it credit for)

Anywho, I feel like I'm firing on all cylinders with my analysis and looking forward to at least a few fights on next week's card.
 
+13.4u, great night. Had a solid read on the majority of fights that paid off well.
 
Kattar- £25 for £65

Yakolev - £50 for £118

Zelim - £200 for £306 < Cashed out when I saw the way the night was going

Zelim + Ankalaev - £100 for £214 < Cashed out on this

Abubakar Nugamagdov - £100 for £150 < Cashed out on this

Added some props just to spice things up

Yakovlev to finish £25 for £200

Kattar Decision £25 for £175

Hardy KO £25 for £95

Kattar + Hardy double £25 for £265

Herman ko £20 for £65

Dalcha KO £25 for £137

Have literally zero expectations for this card, but hopefully I'll get some decent live bet opportunities

Without cashing out all of my bigger leans I would have gotten crushed here, terrible picks.

Probably broke even, have some boxing bets still to play out and a bet on Combate pending.

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Made quite a few changes, figured I'd post.

Volkov -138 $207

Herman +164 $300

Emeev -114 $700

Gamzatov -130 $300

Ankalaev +107 $1845
Lungiambula KO +600 $100

Khabilov -169 $600

Kopylov DEC +405 $250
Kopylov/Roberson O1.5 -199 $1200
Kopylov/Roberson O2 -118 $400


Ankalaev (-155) + Emeev (-135) +186 $324

+$3197. One more week in this 12 week stretch of straight cards then a 3 week break and I can't fucking wait. Been a grind. Ended up on Kattar for $300, thought he'd have more success in early rounds with his length.
 
+$3197. One more week in this 12 week stretch of straight cards then a 3 week break and I can't fucking wait. Been a grind. Ended up on Kattar for $300, thought he'd have more success in early rounds with his length.

Kattar was a great price considering how close it was. I would bet CK again in a rematch
 
In mother Russia decision makes you!
Little behind on this one but we will see where it goes.

●Dalcha 3u for 8u
I like the guy and the line is wide to say the least
●Khabilov 4u for 2.3u
Probably should have passed here hate the weight class jump
●Martin 1u for 1u
Probably adding another unit I think Rocco can dictate the pace
●Gamzatov 2u for 1u
More a fade on Abreu but we will see where it goes
●Dalcha KO 1u for 4u

Parlays
Khabilov + Zabit 1.5u for 1.7u
Dogs parlay because why not?
Dalcha+Rocco+Hardy the Inhaler
.5u for 27u

I'll probably get one or two more in but that's about where I'm at so far.
Listed
Dalcha -3u ko -1u
Khabilov +2.3u
Gamzatov +1.u
Martin +1u

Parlays
Zabit+ Khabilov +1.7u
Dalcha+Rocco+Hardy -.5

+1.5u posted
did much better due to some late parlays thanks fellows see you all next week
 

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Last edited:
Good thing that was only three rounds. Zabit might have been in trouble if it was a five round main event instead. 9.10 units won with my chalky Zabit action.

UFC on ESPN+ 21
Results Risk $3,113.46

Zabit Magomedsharipov (-280) vs Calvin Kattar $2,800.00 for $1,000.00= $1,000.00

Greg Hardy wins in round 1 (+675) $50.00 for $337.50= -$50.00
Alexander Volkov wins in round 3 (+869) $40.00 for $347.60= -$40.00

Live In-Play Ed Herman (-123) vs Khadis Ibragimov $123.46 for $100.00= $100.00

Live In-Play Alexander Yakovlev (+115) vs Roosevelt Roberts $100.00 for $115.00= -$100.00
-----

Total = $910.00
 
I was on an absolute heater today. Ended up winning 7u. Let it ride a bit on kattar, would have finished up 20u had he won.

Hit on Roberts ITD, Herman, Roberson ITD, Zawada ITD, Grant, Khabilov

Lost on Lungiamba, Hardy, and kattar
 
Was on Rocco Martin as the slightest of dogs. Was also on Ank ITD at -125. Forget the line but also hit fight doesn't go the distance in the Karl Roberson bout. Too bad I pissed my profit away trying to make it even bigger on long shot parlays. At least I can still watch this to cheer myself up.

 
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