UFC on ESPN+ 24 Blaydes vs Dos Santos

[SolarSeiko]

Reem squared up his feet after a feint from Blaydes and gave up the first take down. Squared feet = No TDD. And then in the 2nd round Reem fired the knee on Blaydes coming in on the take down, which also gives up the take down. Chance at a good knee, but if the knee doesn't get the job done you basically give up the take down. His take downs on Reem in that fight were no big feat of strength or wrestling skill. Having your hands down won't save you from squaring your feet or choosing to fire the knee while getting shot on.

i guess we'll see how easy curtis takes down jds this saturday vs the reem fight.

 

[Dathorn]

i guess we'll see how easy curtis takes down jds this saturday vs the reem fight.

For sure, and he might do it easily. My post wasn't even about JDS v Blaydes. I just meant that the TDs in the Reem fight were mess ups by the Reem. Blaydes did what a good fighter should do and take advantage of mistakes, so i'm definitely not hating on him for that. But your post made it seem like Reem was hands down looking hard for the take down and focusing on defense and Blaydes overcame his TDD and got him down anyways, when the reality is he gave up the take downs.

 

[DevilsPt2]

Podcast breakdown for this weeks card. Very excited for it, lots of plays that I like. Give it a listen if you have some time.

You make a good point about Lansberg getting respect on the betting line due to her last 2 big wins. On McManns side, having a baby, having a rep as a flake and the layoff from the cage has to make Lansbergs line better than it should be. Lansberg is a fish on the ground BJJ wise but she has been able to get back up to her feet or out of a bad position, I wouldnt expect her to do it very easily with McMann on top though. I dont think Lansberg has much of a shot at winning by decision, that would mean she controlled the clinch or maintained top control long enough to win 2 rounds. I think if Lansberg wins she does it by TKO, either she cuts McMann in the clinch or on the ground or shes able to finish by GnP. She might only need to put Mcmann in a bad spot once or twice.

Good point about Johns toughness, Gravelys power and lack of pop. Gravely is not a good striker, technically Johns should be a bit better standing and Gravely isnt good defensively either. I expect Johns to win the striking battle. Gravely should win the takedown battle but Johns may be able get one. Gravelys top game is terrible though, he often finds himself defending something, hes seems to never actually be in control. To his credit he defends subs often, cant say he exactly defends them well but he does do it often. Problem with expecting Johns to actually finish him is Johns does not attempt many subs or passes when hes on top, hes more about maintaining position and going for GnP. You have to give Johns your back, hes not going to actively try and take it. I would still favor Johns getting the sub to Gravely getting the KO. I would favor Johns to win the striking, win from top position and not lose from his back. I missed out on +money Johns so Im not going to play it now but I think it was a good bet.

I skipped the Jackson breakdown. Jackson is just very good everywhere and hes not losing to many people, especially not Colares. Colares basically only wins by sub, some chance for the very lucky KO but next to no chance on the decision. Jackson is the lock of the card, hope you agreed lol.

I made my mind up on Pudilova-Kish, you would disagree but I think it's 60-40 Pudilova. I agree with you that Pudilovas striking is much better offensively but both have terrible striking defense. Pudilova has close fights with everyone she faces, she never runs away with anything. She even had a close fight with Kim, Kish did as well by result but got robbed. Her reach is longer than Kish but she actually has a shorter than average reach for her size, she doesnt fight long well. Kish will have many chances to tieup and attempt takedowns, Kish is probably stronger as well. I dont see how you can cap Pudilova at -220, you would have to believe she will finish Kish close to as often as she wins a decision. I expect Pudilova to finish more often than Kish but dont expect it to happen a lot. I have no bet so I'll be rooting for Pudilova for you but I'm scared.

Skipped Lewis. Didnt think about this fight at all but I may now that Lewis is -400, he doesnt deserve that.

With you all the way on J. Hill. You can tell hes improving rapidily as you watch through his fights. Stosic will be there to get hit and he will try to counter as you said but I think it's clear that Hill has a great chance of avoiding Stosics overhands. Stosic also likes to try to finish when he can get his opponent stationary against the cage, dont see that happening often. Stosic has really good leg kicks, maybe he can get a stop that way but I think its unlikely. Stosic could get a GnP TKO but I think he has a hard time finding a takedown, if he gets a takedown, I'm not sure how that plays out. Stosic is low volume as you said and I dont think he will have much effective offensive standing besides the leg kicks, so I definitely favor Hill for the decision as well. I would take Hill at -120 but I would feel like it's a for sure bet at +!00.

You've got A. Hill pegged pretty good I think. Shes all about her footwork, managing distance and high volume, low powered striking. Her downfall comes in her cardio and grappling. Her cardio was never that bad but her style requires a lot of energy, she generally cant finish fights and shes not strong minded. Hill has shown improvements as of late in her grappling and possibly her mental game. I think Hill is the clear fav here, dont expect Cifers to be able to find Hill standing and I dont expect her to get takedowns. Hills line has been too high though.

With you all the way on Espinoza as well. Espinoza is a good wrestler, hes faster, more explosive and he has better movement. Perez will need to get takedowns and maintain position or get the sub to justify his price. Really dont expect Perez to get the KO and I think he has a hard time getting the takedown.

I'm with you on Lentz too but I wanna talk about you picking Chiesa. I'm with you basically the whole card and you go and try to put doubts in my head, I'm offended lol. You make a good point about Chiesa getting takedowns in basically all of his fights, I think RDA has some pretty good TDD but I expect Chiesa will get a takedown or two. We know RDA has never been submitted by BJJ but we both recognize Chiesa is very good offensively on the ground. We both acknowledge just because someone hasnt been submitted over a long period of time does not mean it's a low probability in every future fight. Now here is where we diverge, I dont think Chiesa has a good chance at submitting RDA. It's not just about RDA never being submitted, he also has never had someone establish back control, they've threatened it but I cant remember anyone ever securing the position in his career. If Chiesa does find his way to RDAs back, it's not a forgone conclusion that he gets a RNC, I would say more often than not, he doesnt. I'm most concerned with Chiesa being able to control RDA 2-3 round than submitting him. RDA is not generally a finisher either but Chiesa is a front runner, he doesnt seem like the type of guy to dig himself out of a hole, I think there is some quit in him. Chiesa is also not good defensively on the ground, RDA could submit him from top or bottom. Chiesas striking isnt good and if he gets stuck standing with RDA the TKO will be there sometimes.


Your podcast is very good but get some time stamps.

 

[ill800]

Johns hasn’t fought in a year and half and all his wins are against guys who are no longer in the ufc. He also cuts a ton of weight to make 135

 

[BigSteve]

Reem squared up his feet after a feint from Blaydes and gave up the first take down. Squared feet = No TDD. And then in the 2nd round Reem fired the knee on Blaydes coming in on the take down, which also gives up the take down. Chance at a good knee, but if the knee doesn't get the job done you basically give up the take down. His take downs on Reem in that fight were no big feat of strength or wrestling skill. Having your hands down won't save you from squaring your feet or choosing to fire the knee while getting shot on.

Blaydes also rocked him, because he had his hands down. His standup is constantly improving and I think he can potentially steal rounds with output. JDS's chin isn't what it used to be, and he dosent have insane finishing moves like Hunt or the Uberknee. Maybe a really telegrapher overhand but other than that his only way of winning is a decision through standup. I like Blaydes chances even without the takedown, cage staling output etc. He couldn't take Daniel Omil down once, but still won with other methods.

 

[BigSteve]

Mcmann by submission ×9.5 has value

Could also Crusafix gnp. I think once on bottom Lina dosen't have much options. McMann gets subbed a lot, Lina is a clinch kickboxer lol. Find ending in finish has a ton of value and I think its relatively safe.

 

[2bet]

I have 2u on McMann 1,66
and 2u on McMann/Lansberg U2.5 2,55

I'd be very surprised (and angry) to lose both

 

[GoldenWolf87]

Just made a small play on a draw between Stosic and Nzechukwu and that could win me a $1,000 or so if it comes through. Groin kicks and subsequent point deductions may take it in that direction as Stosic is dealing with another southpaw.

You make a good point about Stosic dealing with a southpaw and the fighters that Hill fought agaisnt in white contender series seem to look like they were bums at least i only noticed one good fighter he ever fought agaisnt.

I am going to be realistic here.
Look i know Stosic losing to Devin Clark was something at least some what expected?

After what happened at UFC 246 and Ode Osbourne vs Brian Kelleher i am being very careful.

 

[ill800]

I went into johns vs gravely wanting to play gravely. I love his pace and his cardio.

after tape it’s a no play for me. Johns has good tdd and good get ups. He held his ground pretty well against sterling wrestling.

Johns has no quit in him and is going to be hard to break. Gravelys biggest asset is his ability to break guys with pressure

The striking is fairly even. Both guys overcommit to punches, leaving themselves exposed for counters. Gravely has better kicks with his tkd background.

I noticed how susceptible Johns is to legs kicks leading up to the Munhoz fight and Munhoz took full advantage of it.

Johns judo base really helps him in the grappling department. If gravely had a better top game I’d be more comfortable playing him but he gives up too much space trying to posture for gnp.

should be a really good, close fight. There’s probably going to be a lot of scrambling and who ever is able to keep top control is probably going to win

Have it capped around evens. Would feel comfortable playing ether guy at +150

 

[GoldenWolf87]

You make a good point about Lansberg getting respect on the betting line due to her last 2 big wins. On McManns side, having a baby, having a rep as a flake and the layoff from the cage has to make Lansbergs line better than it should be. Lansberg is a fish on the ground BJJ wise but she has been able to get back up to her feet or out of a bad position, I wouldnt expect her to do it very easily with McMann on top though. I dont think Lansberg has much of a shot at winning by decision, that would mean she controlled the clinch or maintained top control long enough to win 2 rounds. I think if Lansberg wins she does it by TKO, either she cuts McMann in the clinch or on the ground or shes able to finish by GnP. She might only need to put Mcmann in a bad spot once or twice.

Good point about Johns toughness, Gravelys power and lack of pop. Gravely is not a good striker, technically Johns should be a bit better standing and Gravely isnt good defensively either. I expect Johns to win the striking battle. Gravely should win the takedown battle but Johns may be able get one. Gravelys top game is terrible though, he often finds himself defending something, hes seems to never actually be in control. To his credit he defends subs often, cant say he exactly defends them well but he does do it often. Problem with expecting Johns to actually finish him is Johns does not attempt many subs or passes when hes on top, hes more about maintaining position and going for GnP. You have to give Johns your back, hes not going to actively try and take it. I would still favor Johns getting the sub to Gravely getting the KO. I would favor Johns to win the striking, win from top position and not lose from his back. I missed out on +money Johns so Im not going to play it now but I think it was a good bet.

I skipped the Jackson breakdown. Jackson is just very good everywhere and hes not losing to many people, especially not Colares. Colares basically only wins by sub, some chance for the very lucky KO but next to no chance on the decision. Jackson is the lock of the card, hope you agreed lol.

I made my mind up on Pudilova-Kish, you would disagree but I think it's 60-40 Pudilova. I agree with you that Pudilovas striking is much better offensively but both have terrible striking defense. Pudilova has close fights with everyone she faces, she never runs away with anything. She even had a close fight with Kim, Kish did as well by result but got robbed. Her reach is longer than Kish but she actually has a shorter than average reach for her size, she doesnt fight long well. Kish will have many chances to tieup and attempt takedowns, Kish is probably stronger as well. I dont see how you can cap Pudilova at -220, you would have to believe she will finish Kish close to as often as she wins a decision. I expect Pudilova to finish more often than Kish but dont expect it to happen a lot. I have no bet so I'll be rooting for Pudilova for you but I'm scared.

Skipped Lewis. Didnt think about this fight at all but I may now that Lewis is -400, he doesnt deserve that.

With you all the way on J. Hill. You can tell hes improving rapidily as you watch through his fights. Stosic will be there to get hit and he will try to counter as you said but I think it's clear that Hill has a great chance of avoiding Stosics overhands. Stosic also likes to try to finish when he can get his opponent stationary against the cage, dont see that happening often. Stosic has really good leg kicks, maybe he can get a stop that way but I think its unlikely. Stosic could get a GnP TKO but I think he has a hard time finding a takedown, if he gets a takedown, I'm not sure how that plays out. Stosic is low volume as you said and I dont think he will have much effective offensive standing besides the leg kicks, so I definitely favor Hill for the decision as well. I would take Hill at -120 but I would feel like it's a for sure bet at +!00.z

You've got A. Hill pegged pretty good I think. Shes all about her footwork, managing distance and high volume, low powered striking. Her downfall comes in her cardio and grappling. Her cardio was never that bad but her style requires a lot of energy, she generally cant finish fights and shes not strong minded. Hill has shown improvements as of late in her grappling and possibly her mental game. I think Hill is the clear fav here, dont expect Cifers to be able to find Hill standing and I dont expect her to get takedowns. Hills line has been too high though.

With you all the way on Espinoza as well. Espinoza is a good wrestler, hes faster, more explosive and he has better movement. Perez will need to get takedowns and maintain position or get the sub to justify his price. Really dont expect Perez to get the KO and I think he has a hard time getting the takedown.

I'm with you on Lentz too but I wanna talk about you picking Chiesa. I'm with you basically the whole card and you go and try to put doubts in my head, I'm offended lol. You make a good point about Chiesa getting takedowns in basically all of his fights, I think RDA has some pretty good TDD but I expect Chiesa will get a takedown or two. We know RDA has never been submitted by BJJ but we both recognize Chiesa is very good offensively on the ground. We both acknowledge just because someone hasnt been submitted over a long period of time does not mean it's a low probability in every future fight. Now here is where we diverge, I dont think Chiesa has a good chance at submitting RDA. It's not just about RDA never being submitted, he also has never had someone establish back control, they've threatened it but I cant remember anyone ever securing the position in his career. If Chiesa does find his way to RDAs back, it's not a forgone conclusion that he gets a RNC, I would say more often than not, he doesnt. I'm most concerned with Chiesa being able to control RDA 2-3 round than submitting him. RDA is not generally a finisher either but Chiesa is a front runner, he doesnt seem like the type of guy to dig himself out of a hole, I think there is some quit in him. Chiesa is also not good defensively on the ground, RDA could submit him from top or bottom. Chiesas striking isnt good and if he gets stuck standing with RDA the TKO will be there sometimes.


Your podcast is very good but get some time stamps.

With you all the way on J. Hill. You can tell hes improving rapidily as you watch through his fights. Stosic will be there to get hit and he will try to counter as you said but I think it's clear that Hill has a great chance of avoiding Stosics overhands

Hmm we shall see, as i mentioned after finding some tape on this fighter, Hill looks like another hype train as much as Ode Osbourne was. The only noticeable good fighter hill fought at the Dana white contender series was Alexander Poppeck. The other win he got at the contender series was by knocking out a fighter and putting him in retirement.

I am not sure how could you bring this ko win into the UFC and claim that his a good fighter by finishing off a fighter who was already having enough losses in the series anyway. We shall see but after UFC 246 i am careful.

 

[Sadistics]

Hmm we shall see, as i mentioned after finding some tape on this fighter, Hill looks like another hype train as much as Ode Osbourne was. The only noticeable good fighter hill fought at the Dana white contender series was Alexander Poppeck. The other win he got at the contender series was by knocking out a fighter and putting him in retirement.

I am not sure how could you bring this ko win into the UFC and claim that his a good fighter by finishing off a fighter who was already having enough losses in the series anyway. We shall see but after UFC 246 i am careful.

I'm curious who this other guy you're watching is, Hill only competed once on DWCS

 

[longway]

I went into johns vs gravely wanting to play gravely. I love his pace and his cardio.

after tape it’s a no play for me. Johns has good tdd and good get ups. He held his ground pretty well against sterling wrestling.

Johns has no quit in him and is going to be hard to break. Gravelys biggest asset is his ability to break guys with pressure

The striking is fairly even. Both guys overcommit to punches, leaving themselves exposed for counters. Gravely has better kicks with his tkd background.

I noticed how susceptible Johns is to legs kicks leading up to the Munhoz fight and Munhoz took full advantage of it.

Johns judo base really helps him in the grappling department. If gravely had a better top game I’d be more comfortable playing him but he gives up too much space trying to posture for gnp.

should be a really good, close fight. There’s probably going to be a lot of scrambling and who ever is able to keep top control is probably going to win

Have it capped around evens. Would feel comfortable playing ether guy at +150

The reason I plumped for Gravely is that Johns is physically outmatched, and that will wear Johns down. I have Gravely capped at about -145.

 

[ill800]

Also starting to think Kish is going to have trouble with the reach advantage of pudilova

she may have success with her leg kicks but overall I think she’s going to get out volumed and have a hard time getting in the pocket where she needs to be.

she’s going to have to use the clinch and I don’t know that they will even be in her game plan

 

[ill800]

The reason I plumped for Gravely is that Johns is physically outmatched, and that will wear Johns down. I have Gravely capped at about -145.

I’m not so sure that Johns is going to wear down over a three rounder. He looked pretty good in round three vs Sterling and That was a high paced fight.

 

[longway]

I’m not so sure that Johns is going to wear down over a three rounder. He looked pretty good in round three vs Sterling and That was a high paced fight.

I will have to re-watch, but that is the fight that made me think that Gravely had the advantage. Both Gravely and Sterling have excellent wrestling and kicking game, and Johns was overwhelmed by Sterling's physicality, I think Johns is undersized. If he tries to get on the inside to use his boxing then Gravely can switch to wrestling, on the outside Gravely has the better kicks. Granted that Gravely and Sterling are not clones, but its a good capping fight to assess the outcome. My main concern is that Gravely is debuting and will underperform. Gravely does have holes in his defensive wrestling, but I think that his physical advantages will negate that.

 

[GoldenWolf87]

I'm curious who this other guy you're watching is, Hill only competed once on DWCS

Most of Hill's wins before DWC one are from armature fights.

 

[grndzro]

I'm curious who this other guy you're watching is, Hill only competed once on DWCS

Hill has better lateral footwork, and a better jab. Should play a huge part in her winning a decision.

 

[Kamais_Ookin]

Hill has better lateral footwork, and a better jab. Should play a huge part in her winning a decision.

They're not talking about Angela hill lol.

 

[BatBoyJG]

You make a good point about Lansberg getting respect on the betting line due to her last 2 big wins. On McManns side, having a baby, having a rep as a flake and the layoff from the cage has to make Lansbergs line better than it should be. Lansberg is a fish on the ground BJJ wise but she has been able to get back up to her feet or out of a bad position, I wouldnt expect her to do it very easily with McMann on top though. I dont think Lansberg has much of a shot at winning by decision, that would mean she controlled the clinch or maintained top control long enough to win 2 rounds. I think if Lansberg wins she does it by TKO, either she cuts McMann in the clinch or on the ground or shes able to finish by GnP. She might only need to put Mcmann in a bad spot once or twice.

Good point about Johns toughness, Gravelys power and lack of pop. Gravely is not a good striker, technically Johns should be a bit better standing and Gravely isnt good defensively either. I expect Johns to win the striking battle. Gravely should win the takedown battle but Johns may be able get one. Gravelys top game is terrible though, he often finds himself defending something, hes seems to never actually be in control. To his credit he defends subs often, cant say he exactly defends them well but he does do it often. Problem with expecting Johns to actually finish him is Johns does not attempt many subs or passes when hes on top, hes more about maintaining position and going for GnP. You have to give Johns your back, hes not going to actively try and take it. I would still favor Johns getting the sub to Gravely getting the KO. I would favor Johns to win the striking, win from top position and not lose from his back. I missed out on +money Johns so Im not going to play it now but I think it was a good bet.

I skipped the Jackson breakdown. Jackson is just very good everywhere and hes not losing to many people, especially not Colares. Colares basically only wins by sub, some chance for the very lucky KO but next to no chance on the decision. Jackson is the lock of the card, hope you agreed lol.

I made my mind up on Pudilova-Kish, you would disagree but I think it's 60-40 Pudilova. I agree with you that Pudilovas striking is much better offensively but both have terrible striking defense. Pudilova has close fights with everyone she faces, she never runs away with anything. She even had a close fight with Kim, Kish did as well by result but got robbed. Her reach is longer than Kish but she actually has a shorter than average reach for her size, she doesnt fight long well. Kish will have many chances to tieup and attempt takedowns, Kish is probably stronger as well. I dont see how you can cap Pudilova at -220, you would have to believe she will finish Kish close to as often as she wins a decision. I expect Pudilova to finish more often than Kish but dont expect it to happen a lot. I have no bet so I'll be rooting for Pudilova for you but I'm scared.

Skipped Lewis. Didnt think about this fight at all but I may now that Lewis is -400, he doesnt deserve that.

With you all the way on J. Hill. You can tell hes improving rapidily as you watch through his fights. Stosic will be there to get hit and he will try to counter as you said but I think it's clear that Hill has a great chance of avoiding Stosics overhands. Stosic also likes to try to finish when he can get his opponent stationary against the cage, dont see that happening often. Stosic has really good leg kicks, maybe he can get a stop that way but I think its unlikely. Stosic could get a GnP TKO but I think he has a hard time finding a takedown, if he gets a takedown, I'm not sure how that plays out. Stosic is low volume as you said and I dont think he will have much effective offensive standing besides the leg kicks, so I definitely favor Hill for the decision as well. I would take Hill at -120 but I would feel like it's a for sure bet at +!00.

You've got A. Hill pegged pretty good I think. Shes all about her footwork, managing distance and high volume, low powered striking. Her downfall comes in her cardio and grappling. Her cardio was never that bad but her style requires a lot of energy, she generally cant finish fights and shes not strong minded. Hill has shown improvements as of late in her grappling and possibly her mental game. I think Hill is the clear fav here, dont expect Cifers to be able to find Hill standing and I dont expect her to get takedowns. Hills line has been too high though.

With you all the way on Espinoza as well. Espinoza is a good wrestler, hes faster, more explosive and he has better movement. Perez will need to get takedowns and maintain position or get the sub to justify his price. Really dont expect Perez to get the KO and I think he has a hard time getting the takedown.

I'm with you on Lentz too but I wanna talk about you picking Chiesa. I'm with you basically the whole card and you go and try to put doubts in my head, I'm offended lol. You make a good point about Chiesa getting takedowns in basically all of his fights, I think RDA has some pretty good TDD but I expect Chiesa will get a takedown or two. We know RDA has never been submitted by BJJ but we both recognize Chiesa is very good offensively on the ground. We both acknowledge just because someone hasnt been submitted over a long period of time does not mean it's a low probability in every future fight. Now here is where we diverge, I dont think Chiesa has a good chance at submitting RDA. It's not just about RDA never being submitted, he also has never had someone establish back control, they've threatened it but I cant remember anyone ever securing the position in his career. If Chiesa does find his way to RDAs back, it's not a forgone conclusion that he gets a RNC, I would say more often than not, he doesnt. I'm most concerned with Chiesa being able to control RDA 2-3 round than submitting him. RDA is not generally a finisher either but Chiesa is a front runner, he doesnt seem like the type of guy to dig himself out of a hole, I think there is some quit in him. Chiesa is also not good defensively on the ground, RDA could submit him from top or bottom. Chiesas striking isnt good and if he gets stuck standing with RDA the TKO will be there sometimes.


Your podcast is very good but get some time stamps.

Thanks for listening man and the long post going through all the fights. Definitely got lazy this morning putting the time stamps in there. Will continue to do these, get better with them and add in the time stamps

You make a good point about Lansberg getting respect on the betting line due to her last 2 big wins. On McManns side, having a baby, having a rep as a flake and the layoff from the cage has to make Lansbergs line better than it should be. Lansberg is a fish on the ground BJJ wise but she has been able to get back up to her feet or out of a bad position, I wouldnt expect her to do it very easily with McMann on top though. I dont think Lansberg has much of a shot at winning by decision, that would mean she controlled the clinch or maintained top control long enough to win 2 rounds. I think if Lansberg wins she does it by TKO, either she cuts McMann in the clinch or on the ground or shes able to finish by GnP. She might only need to put Mcmann in a bad spot once or twice.

Good point about Johns toughness, Gravelys power and lack of pop. Gravely is not a good striker, technically Johns should be a bit better standing and Gravely isnt good defensively either. I expect Johns to win the striking battle. Gravely should win the takedown battle but Johns may be able get one. Gravelys top game is terrible though, he often finds himself defending something, hes seems to never actually be in control. To his credit he defends subs often, cant say he exactly defends them well but he does do it often. Problem with expecting Johns to actually finish him is Johns does not attempt many subs or passes when hes on top, hes more about maintaining position and going for GnP. You have to give Johns your back, hes not going to actively try and take it. I would still favor Johns getting the sub to Gravely getting the KO. I would favor Johns to win the striking, win from top position and not lose from his back. I missed out on +money Johns so Im not going to play it now but I think it was a good bet.

I skipped the Jackson breakdown. Jackson is just very good everywhere and hes not losing to many people, especially not Colares. Colares basically only wins by sub, some chance for the very lucky KO but next to no chance on the decision. Jackson is the lock of the card, hope you agreed lol.

I made my mind up on Pudilova-Kish, you would disagree but I think it's 60-40 Pudilova. I agree with you that Pudilovas striking is much better offensively but both have terrible striking defense. Pudilova has close fights with everyone she faces, she never runs away with anything. She even had a close fight with Kim, Kish did as well by result but got robbed. Her reach is longer than Kish but she actually has a shorter than average reach for her size, she doesnt fight long well. Kish will have many chances to tieup and attempt takedowns, Kish is probably stronger as well. I dont see how you can cap Pudilova at -220, you would have to believe she will finish Kish close to as often as she wins a decision. I expect Pudilova to finish more often than Kish but dont expect it to happen a lot. I have no bet so I'll be rooting for Pudilova for you but I'm scared.

Skipped Lewis. Didnt think about this fight at all but I may now that Lewis is -400, he doesnt deserve that.

With you all the way on J. Hill. You can tell hes improving rapidily as you watch through his fights. Stosic will be there to get hit and he will try to counter as you said but I think it's clear that Hill has a great chance of avoiding Stosics overhands. Stosic also likes to try to finish when he can get his opponent stationary against the cage, dont see that happening often. Stosic has really good leg kicks, maybe he can get a stop that way but I think its unlikely. Stosic could get a GnP TKO but I think he has a hard time finding a takedown, if he gets a takedown, I'm not sure how that plays out. Stosic is low volume as you said and I dont think he will have much effective offensive standing besides the leg kicks, so I definitely favor Hill for the decision as well. I would take Hill at -120 but I would feel like it's a for sure bet at +!00.

You've got A. Hill pegged pretty good I think. Shes all about her footwork, managing distance and high volume, low powered striking. Her downfall comes in her cardio and grappling. Her cardio was never that bad but her style requires a lot of energy, she generally cant finish fights and shes not strong minded. Hill has shown improvements as of late in her grappling and possibly her mental game. I think Hill is the clear fav here, dont expect Cifers to be able to find Hill standing and I dont expect her to get takedowns. Hills line has been too high though.

With you all the way on Espinoza as well. Espinoza is a good wrestler, hes faster, more explosive and he has better movement. Perez will need to get takedowns and maintain position or get the sub to justify his price. Really dont expect Perez to get the KO and I think he has a hard time getting the takedown.

I'm with you on Lentz too but I wanna talk about you picking Chiesa. I'm with you basically the whole card and you go and try to put doubts in my head, I'm offended lol. You make a good point about Chiesa getting takedowns in basically all of his fights, I think RDA has some pretty good TDD but I expect Chiesa will get a takedown or two. We know RDA has never been submitted by BJJ but we both recognize Chiesa is very good offensively on the ground. We both acknowledge just because someone hasnt been submitted over a long period of time does not mean it's a low probability in every future fight. Now here is where we diverge, I dont think Chiesa has a good chance at submitting RDA. It's not just about RDA never being submitted, he also has never had someone establish back control, they've threatened it but I cant remember anyone ever securing the position in his career. If Chiesa does find his way to RDAs back, it's not a forgone conclusion that he gets a RNC, I would say more often than not, he doesnt. I'm most concerned with Chiesa being able to control RDA 2-3 round than submitting him. RDA is not generally a finisher either but Chiesa is a front runner, he doesnt seem like the type of guy to dig himself out of a hole, I think there is some quit in him. Chiesa is also not good defensively on the ground, RDA could submit him from top or bottom. Chiesas striking isnt good and if he gets stuck standing with RDA the TKO will be there sometimes.


Your podcast is very good but get some time stamps.

Thanks for listening and the feedback man. Added the time stamps and will continue doing these.

Glad to see we are in agreement on most picks. I feel strongly about the Chiesa play, let's see how it plays out!

 

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What are your thoughts on mcmann v lansberg dngd at plus odds? I hopped on this.
Mcmann has the better grappling and submissions but is prone to giving up.