UFC on ESPN+ 25 Anderson vs Blachowicz II

[burge13]

Everyone and their mother knows that Corey has a weak chin. Something can't be "exposed" if it's already widely known and brought up at the first opportunity.

But by that logic, you should have bet the hell out of Glover Teixeira, Ilir Latifi, and Johnny Walker against Corey Anderson as favorites, ALL much bigger punchers and more dangerous strikers than Blachowicz...and you would have lost every single time.



There are bets that miss which were are dumb, ones that miss which are okay, and others which are good.

Similarly, there are bets that cash which are dumb, okay, and good, too.

That's why looking at the final result alone isn't nearly enough, and simply saying "my bet cashed, therefore I'm right!" or "my bet missed, therefore I'm wrong!" is an absolutely horrible way to approach gambling.

People in here are claiming Corey was 'still the right side'. I completely disagree with that. I'm not just looking at the final result, I'm telling people who said Corey was still right to pull their heads out of the sand

 

[Gugabe]

People in here are claiming Corey was 'still the right side'. I completely disagree with that. I'm not just looking at the final result, I'm telling people who said Corey was still right to pull their heads out of the sand

We've got one fight of evidence where he looked like a -800, and another fight where he was having a fairly-even kickboxing match till he got deaded by a counter. It's not like Jan was out there stuffing takedowns, tripling him up on volume landed and beasting the fuck out of Corey. Corey just got dropped in a fairly stock-standard exchange, and we've got tape of him absorbing bigger shots than that so it's not like he's in the Ben Saunders zone where he'll be put out by literally any reasonably-hard shot that lands on him.

Like if Jan had shown any proof of being able to negate the cardio or wrestling edges that people were playing him on, that'd be one thing, but he didn't, and he didn't even demonstrate consistent standing superiority. Prettymuch every Corey bettor said pre-fight that Jan would need a KO in the first 2 rounds, and nothing on tape in that fight satisfies me that Jan gets the KO at any huge clip. I personally tend to undervalue KO1s as performances as they're frequently so crazily overvalued by the market, and 'Jan wings Corey with a KO shot in a 50-50 kickboxing contest before the cardio/wrestling advantages manifest' isn't a reliable enough scenario to say he was value.

A lot of Jan bettors were making claims of improvement that weren't substantiated, essentially. It's like if somebody said JDS was value against Cain after the first match and the quick KO, then watched the next 2 rematches.

 

[Red_2]

People in here are claiming Corey was 'still the right side'. I completely disagree with that. I'm not just looking at the final result, I'm telling people who said Corey was still right to pull their heads out of the sand

It's easy to do that, captain hindsight. What about Pereira? Does betting him then losing by DQ in rd3 make him the 'wrong bet'?

 

[burge13]

It's easy to do that, captain hindsight. What about Pereira? Does betting him then losing by DQ in rd3 make him the 'wrong bet'?

If you read up I gave him as the perfect example of being right but not cashing...