UFC on ESPN+ 30: Kattar v Ige

Franke was not very smart in the zombie fight. Terrible fight iq. He looks very old now too, almost 39. He could definitely outpoint munhoz to a dec. I think taking Munhoz down is both dangerous and unlikely. Munhoz kicks could also be a big issue. Maybe we’ll see a renewed edgar like Aldo, but big risk vs Munhoz who was willing to fight anyone. Edgar also said no to 5 rounds from what I heard. He has to fight near perfect to win this, or it’ll be a bad night for him.

Yeah...Zombie fight is a concern but I think that makes is more and not less likely that Frankie avoids exchanges. I think he will be happy to try to point fight to a win and then maybe retire.

I'd still favor Munhoz stopping him but I don't see Frankie finishing Munhoz at all, if he wins it's by Dec. So +285 has value imo.
 
Yeah...Zombie fight is a concern but I think that makes is more and not less likely that Frankie avoids exchanges. I think he will be happy to try to point fight to a win and then maybe retire.

I'd still favor Munhoz stopping him but I don't see Frankie finishing Munhoz at all, if he wins it's by Dec. So +285 has value imo.
Completely with you. No point in not taking that. I think overall its a big misconception that props are for losers, and thats its good to be covered. As we have to remember we "pay" to be covered. There are definitely many times where props are better. Personally as I´ve said before I´m a huge fan of the double chance, usually only for main events unless its betfair who has low limits. +285 edgar decision is crazy compared to his ML. Munhoz to win this also needs to fight smart, overall he got alot of skills but I don´t rate his fight iq up there with the best. Its still a mystery to me how big a lack of fight iq is. If I ever were to go in there, fight iq and gameplan would be all i had in order not to get KTFO lol. Fight iq + cardio might be the two most important aspects, or biggest influencers.
 
Kattar is a lock. He is on another level compared to someone like Ige
Crazy but I’ll be taking Ige inside or KO prop. They exchange in the pocket, anything can happen plus Kattar has to punch down possibly exposing that chin.
 
Crazy but I’ll be taking Ige inside or KO prop. They exchange in the pocket, anything can happen plus Kattar has to punch down possibly exposing that chin.
Kattars movement and defence is great, he dosent trade in the pocket. He will jab and circle untill Ige has been chipped away at enough, and then he will commit to one-twos down the pipe and more risky crap like the elbow against Stephens. His Take down D is great as well
 
Man there's a prop I love here...

Playing Edgar dec +285. Soooo much more value than his ML at +180 imo.
Mkess, Frankie's decision line is better than his ML, I agree. But in my opinion there is no value in either. Because he's gonna lose this fight.
Munhoz has a granite chin, big power, and one of the best guillotines in the UFC (Ortega, Hermansson maybe too?). But he doesn't cut off the cage well and his footwork is so-so. He's terrific against guys who will stand in the pocket and bang, but overall as a striker he's a poor man's Lineker imo.
Munhoz may be all that, but he's a tough SOB that will push the pace and force Frankie into exchanges. And not only Frankie's stand up is not the long distance with limited engagements type that usually troubles Munhoz, but his stand up game is half as potent if he can't mix in takedowns. That guillotine threat will mess up his TD game in the way Ortega's did. We saw the result. I don't trust old, slow and now chinny Frankie to go down to 135 and fight one of their best guys in a stylistically tough fight and take the W, even as an underdog.
 
Really want to bet some of the lines on this card but i just can’t trust guys not pulling out/testing for Covid. Will wait to after 251.
 
Mkess, Frankie's decision line is better than his ML, I agree. But in my opinion there is no value in either. Because he's gonna lose this fight.
Munhoz may be all that, but he's a tough SOB that will push the pace and force Frankie into exchanges. And not only Frankie's stand up is not the long distance with limited engagements type that usually troubles Munhoz, but his stand up game is half as potent if he can't mix in takedowns. That guillotine threat will mess up his TD game in the way Ortega's did. We saw the result. I don't trust old, slow and now chinny Frankie to go down to 135 and fight one of their best guys in a stylistically tough fight and take the W, even as an underdog.

If you put a gun to my head and made me pick a winner I'm taking Munhoz for sure. I'm not picking Frankie outright, I hope that was clear.

But I cap the outcomes something like:
Munhoz finish 35%
Munhoz dec 25%
Frankie finish 5%
Frankie dec 35%

At +285 I think there's value on Frankie dec. Yeah he may get blasted but he also may be able to play matador one more time and win on volume.
 
You've put way to loo percentage on Munhoz by finish. The way Frankie usually fights, there is no way he's not gonna get himself in danger. He's not your matador, Mkess. He's a volume boxer-wrestler guy, not a long range striker. His footwork is not that fast to get him in and out to play that long game. He's nearly 40 and with him going down a weightlass, his usual speed edge won't be there. I honestly don't see that value you're speaking of. But maybe I'm wrong. After all I thought that Eye at pick em was a bargain :D
 
You've put way to loo percentage on Munhoz by finish. The way Frankie usually fights, there is no way he's not gonna get himself in danger. He's not your matador, Mkess. He's a volume boxer-wrestler guy, not a long range striker. His footwork is not that fast to get him in and out to play that long game. He's nearly 40 and with him going down a weightlass, his usual speed edge won't be there. I honestly don't see that value you're speaking of. But maybe I'm wrong. After all I thought that Eye at pick em was a bargain :D

Hey I could be way off here. I've gotten a lot of things very right over the years. Last event I absolutely killed it, Perry dec +434 was a very confident play for me and I was on with my capping on more fights than not.

BUT...

I've gotten a LOT of stuff wrong over the years too ha ha. And quite frankly, I'm breaking my own rule here in betting an aging fighter with a shot chin at a lower weight class. I implored people to load up on Gilbert's little brother vs Dunham for all of the reasons you're talking about. So I may look back on this one and say "Well dumbass, you bet on exactly the stuff that you tell people should be faded."

In the bigger cage and the way Munhoz plods forward hoping his opponent will be there just makes me think Frankie can play pop a shot and jump in and out and land enough to steal rounds and MAYBE avoid getting smoked for 15 minutes. But if Pedro knocks Frankie into the empty seats 30 seconds in will I be shocked? No way ha ha.
 
I think Munhoz is a lock. Frankie fighting at BW seems like a recipe for disaster at this point in his career. His chin is shot. Munhoz is fast and will finish Frankie most likely. I think Pedro is smart enough to know the only way for Frankie to win is by decision so he might as well push the pace and be aggressive which will increase his chances of a finish.
 
Seems like more and more brazilians gets hit with the Rona, understandable but unfortunate. They soon need to add betting props for how many fights will be cancelled/moved.
 
Seems like more and more brazilians gets hit with the Rona, understandable but unfortunate. They soon need to add betting props for how many fights will be cancelled/moved.
I’m not sure why they are giving everyone the antibody test when the cdc has came out and said it’s unreliable.
 
Marlon Vera threw his name in the hat to replace Munhoz. I would love that.
 
So if you previously had the rona you cant compete, should be the opposite?
 
So if you previously had the rona you cant compete, should be the opposite?

the test isnt if you've had corona in the past, but if you have it actively in you at the time of the test.
 
Reminder that this is a Wednesday card.

Biggest bet so far is Gordon, he's gonna drown Fishgold
Nice to see that you agree on Gordon. I'm big on him also. I saw him at -120 and thought he would be closer to the -200 range.

Fishgold might look okay for the first 5-7 minutes, but I think he is going to succumb to Jared's high pace. I'm only slightly concerned about a Fishgold early finish or an ugly more unlikely split decisiony type win. Although Gordon has been T(KO)ed in 3 of his last 4 fights, there's no shame in losing to Chucky Olives, CDF, and J. Silva to a lesser extent. Fishgold is not on any of those levels. Also now that I typed it out, he isn't Brazilian like the other 3 either lol. I'd easily take any 3 of them over Fishgold in a heartbeat. Anyway, like you said Fishgold only has 2 TKO wins. One against a 0-3 guy who has all losses by TKO and one to Marcin Wzrosek which came via gnp. Although Gordon might be chinny, I'm having a hard time seeing a FIshgold TKO here. As for a Fishgold sub... I firmly believe Gordon has the grappling chops to avoid one and check this one out - Damn near every opponent Fishgold has subbed has been subbed MULTIPLE times. Some with several sub losses. Like you said, he won't be getting many subs at this level.
 
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