UFC on ESPN 55: Nicolau vs. Perez

[PuertoRican]

Fight Card (ESPN / ESPN+)​
Flyweight	Matheus Nicolau	vs.	Alex Perez
Light Heavyweight	Ryan Spann	vs.	Bogdan Guskov
Women's Flyweight	Ariane Lipski	vs.	Karine Silva
Heavyweight	Austen Lane	vs.	Jhonata Diniz
Featherweight	Jonathan Pearce	vs.	David Onama
Welterweight	Tim Means	vs.	Uros Medic
Preliminary Card (ESPN2 / ESPN+)​
Bantamweight	Rani Yahya	vs.	Victor Henry
Lightweight	Austin Hubbard	vs.	Michal Figlak
Heavyweight	Don'Tale Mayes	vs.	Caio Machado
Women's Strawweight	Marnic Mann	vs.	Ketlen Souza
Lightweight	James Llontop	vs.	Chris Padilla
Women's Flyweight	Ivana Petrovic	vs.	Liang Na
Lightweight	Gabriel Benitez	vs.	Maheshate Hayisaer

• A rematch between Manel Kape and Matheus Nicolau was expected to headline the event, but Kape pulled out due to a rib injury and was replaced by former UFC Flyweight Championship challenger Alex Perez on April 2.
• A bout between Anshul Jubli and Maheshate Hayisaer was scheduled for this event. However, Jubli pulled out due to unknown reasons and was replaced by Gabriel Benitez on February 15.
• A bout between James Llontop and Lando Vannata was scheduled for this event. However, Vannata pulled out for unknown reasons and was replaced by Gabriel Green on February 19.

 

[StewDogg11]

I’ll take Perez at dog odds. I thought he looked good against Mokaev and could’ve conceivably gotten the nod.

 

[Stat_Collector]

I’ll take Perez at dog odds. I thought he looked good against Mokaev and could’ve conceivably gotten the nod.

I would even argue Perez would have beaten Mokaev in a 5 rounder. The easy value side here.

 

[Macaque]

Guskov line doesn’t make too much sense to me.

 

[PuertoRican]

I’ll take Perez at dog odds. I thought he looked good against Mokaev and could’ve conceivably gotten the nod.

I would even argue Perez would have beaten Mokaev in a 5 rounder. The easy value side here.

Perez also used to be known for his punching power, and he can put good combos together if he can keep the fight on the feet. If it's a pure striking fight, he'll land more than Nicolau, and Nicolau still has a bad chin.

I think Perez wins straight up, and I got him at +155. He took zero damage in his recent loss to Mokaev, so he's ready to go.

 

[Thesnake101]

Perez also used to be known for his punching power, and he can put good combos together if he can keep the fight on the feet. If it's a pure striking fight, he'll land more than Nicolau, and Nicolau still has a bad chin.

I think Perez wins straight up, and I got him at +155. He took zero damage in his recent loss to Mokaev, so he's ready to go.

I feel like a finish is likely on either side here, either Perez finding a KO or Nicolau stinging him and then locking a choke. Nicolau's got 8 recorded KDs in his UFC career so far, which for a flyweight isn't half bad even if his killer instinct isn't the best, so I could see him catching Alex unawares.

3 KO losses for Nico and 6 losses ITD for Perez (1 TKO and 5 subs), even FDGTD is worth it and I wouldn't be surprised to see it at evens or better odds.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Took Tim Means in the hopes he can put on a vet performance and ground Medic.

 

[Georges Hefner]

Johata Diniz is safe bet because Austen lane sucks but im not familiar with Diniz.

I like Smith at dog money. He already beat Spann twice

 

[magpie878]

Johata Diniz is safe bet because Austen lane sucks but im not familiar with Diniz.

I like Smith at dog money. He already beat Spann twice

Smith?

 

[Trupsi]

Smith?

Guskov. They kinda look alike.
He's been doin' that joke previously.

Thoughts on Silva vs Lipski anyone ?

 

[PuertoRican]

 

[Georges Hefner]

Guskov. They kinda look alike.
He's been doin' that joke previously.

Thoughts on Silva vs Lipski anyone ?

Did it sound like I was joking?

 

[Stat_Collector]

I feel like a finish is likely on either side here, either Perez finding a KO or Nicolau stinging him and then locking a choke. Nicolau's got 8 recorded KDs in his UFC career so far, which for a flyweight isn't half bad even if his killer instinct isn't the best, so I could see him catching Alex unawares.

3 KO losses for Nico and 6 losses ITD for Perez (1 TKO and 5 subs), even FDGTD is worth it and I wouldn't be surprised to see it at evens or better odds.

nico surprisingly doesn’t have that many subs. two in the ufc from a while back and the rest in his earlier career.

 

[Thesnake101]

nico surprisingly doesn’t have that many subs. two in the ufc from a while back and the rest in his earlier career.

He's a striker first and foremost, hoping that 5 rounds will give him more time to showcase a more varied approach than usual, though a lot will have to do with Alex not letting him control the whole fight.

I know some here are confident Perez will have the edge on the feet, but I'm not too sure. The Mokaev fight was ugly, and it's true that Alex could've gotten the nod, but I didn't like what I saw from him outside of the wrestling defense. Always felt like he lucked out a bit in catching an aging Formiga and the layoff sandwiched between two embarrassing losses didn't help matters.

 

[Stat_Collector]

He's a striker first and foremost, hoping that 5 rounds will give him more time to showcase a more varied approach than usual, though a lot will have to do with Alex not letting him control the whole fight.

I know some here are confident Perez will have the edge on the feet, but I'm not too sure. The Mokaev fight was ugly, and it's true that Alex could've gotten the nod, but I didn't like what I saw from him outside of the wrestling defense. Always felt like he lucked out a bit in catching an aging Formiga and the layoff sandwiched between two embarrassing losses didn't help matters.

Getting subbed is not as bad as getting koed in round 1.

Subbed in round 1 vs Fig and Pantoja who are elite, are forgivable losses. Surviving Mokaev and not getting subbed and grappled and controlled for little time makes it so he can survive tapping to Nico who is either lesser or equal to mokaev in sub threat.

If you make peace that the fight stays standing, i don't see why Alex can't win a kick boxing match in 5 rounds, he has a decent chin and high guard defense with decent calf kicks. He also has more fights under his belt, these are little things, but there is enough there to win a close fight.

 

[Thesnake101]

Getting subbed is not as bad as getting koed in round 1.

Subbed in round 1 vs Fig and Pantoja who are elite, are forgivable losses. Surviving Mokaev and not getting subbed and grappled and controlled for little time makes it so he can survive tapping to Nico who is either lesser or equal to mokaev in sub threat.

If you make piece that the fight stays standing, i don't see why Alex can't win a kick boxing match in 5 rounds, he has a decent chin and high guard defense with decent calf kicks. He also has more fights under his belt, these are little things, but there is enough there to win a close fight.

For me it boils down to the opposition Perez faced so far in the UFC.

Tomas, Shelton, Espinosa, De la Rosa, those are wins that aren't particularly good, hell even Torres, despite being better than those guys, was a guy coming off a meme win in a very competitive fight with Brooks.

I could be misreading this fight completely, but I think Nicolau has been the guy that's faced stiffer competition overall without getting completely blown out the water.

And sure, getting subbed is better than getting KO'd, but lasting less than 4 minutes combined in those fights? It's a bad look regardless. Also side eye his chin due to his loss to Joe-B.

 

[Stat_Collector]

For me it boils down to the opposition Perez faced so far in the UFC.

Tomas, Shelton, Espinosa, De la Rosa, those are wins that aren't particularly good, hell even Torres, despite being better than those guys, was a guy coming off a meme win in a very competitive fight with Brooks.

I could be misreading this fight completely, but I think Nicolau has been the guy that's faced stiffer competition overall without getting completely blown out the water.

And sure, getting subbed is better than getting KO'd, but lasting less than 4 minutes combined in those fights? It's a bad look regardless. Also side eye his chin due to his loss to Joe-B.

the opponent levels are not wide, Alex beats all those guys he beat. Kape stands out, but that was a split win for Nico that a lot of people thought he lost. Brooks aint so bad , he got robbed against fig.

Kape might be overrated too, he struggled with that new comer Felipe who landed 99 v 112 ss .... who got a split dec win in his next fight with Victor Almarino. short notice perhaps played a factor

Joseph also koed him with illegal punches to the back of the head, the ref didn't call foul was strange.

I don't think you can make a strong case either side, both have their flaws. It's why i side with the higher value, If i'm only interested in a ML bet for a small parlay bet, i like the value on Alex here. Maybe a prop bet dec or split for Nico at best for that to be beneficial.

 

[EndlessCritic]

Feel like Onama will fight for my money at dog odds.

Benitez feels too wide of a dog.

Might actually have to play Liang at current odds. She had some good positions on Carnelossi and Aldrich.

 

[Hellowhosthat]

Feel like Onama will fight for my money at dog odds.

Benitez feels too wide of a dog.

Might actually have to play Liang at current odds. She had some good positions on Carnelossi and Aldrich.

I'm on Onama. He's got a lot of power, carries it late into fights and if he cracks Pearce like he cracked Nate the train I can't see JSP coming back the same way. Don't want to just play finish as I could see him panic wrestling back from being hurt and Onama winning rounds on damage.

Benitez I think is pretty shot. Seems chinny and Maheshate can crack so not interested there.

Liang is a tard. I'd probably play her by early finish if I was thinking of playing her as if it goes deep into the fight she'll gas and lose imo. I also think she needs to stay off the ground full stop against Ivana, she's got good sweeps and subs from bottom.

 

[Marko Atanasovik]

Too many mismatches... that is an unexpected for UFC.

Niang's cardio and stand up is laughable. Ivana is better everywhere.

Yahya is a one trick pony and is old like Buddha fighting against pretty solid well rounded fighter.

Chris Padilla is worst fighter who signs for UFC ever. + Short notice.