UFC on ESPN 6 Reyes vs Weidman

If I an feeling confident in a method of victory I'll usually split my money between money line and the prop.
 
How do you guys feel about mr Kyle Bochniak by sub. Sean looked like he had some pretty terrible jits in his last fight with his coaches needing to teach him how to get out of a body triangle during the fight.

Bochniak has 2 submission wins out of his 12 fights, seems comfortable shooting on his opponent (im watching him shoot on Brandon Davis now) and considering Sean has a strong amateur record as a boxer it would strike me as an appealing gameplan.

My bookie is paying out 10 dollars for 1 dollar for Kyle by sub, so i might jog on down to the pub tomorrow and put a few dollars there.
 
ApplesVild said:
If I an feeling confident in a method of victory I'll usually split my money between money line and the prop.
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Just usually not any value unless there is a big difference. I'm not going to bet a method of victory when there is only 50 point did than moneyline. Sometimes you can get some sick methods though. When mj fought artem and was like -700 or something crazy, the mj by dec line was -120. Max bet the shit out of that one. Actually that was the fight right before lionheart oz and why I was rushing it. Had to wait for it to pay out to free up my account.
 
ApplesVild said:
If I an feeling confident in a method of victory I'll usually split my money between money line and the prop.
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That's the smartest thing to do. Nobody is a fortuneteller. You have to cover your ass in case you missed something on tape study or if just something unusual happens.
In the end of the day...
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Sono07 said:
Really liking Bochniak v Zabit. Kyle doesn't look like any technical wizard but I like his movement, guard, and solid wrestling.
Dropped his hands like an idiot a time or two for a taunt but he seemed to actually get in Zabits head a little.
Zabit was a 6 to 1 favorite and Bochniak stayed in his face for the full 15 like a dog even though he took some damaging shots. Sharipov may not have the greatest cardio but Kyle had him dropping his hands in r3 and swung on him from bell to bell.

Aside from Woodson's size I see little reason to think Kyle loses and think he is posed to take a decision as the hometown hero if not on guts alone.
-140 for Kyle seems like value to me.
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Not to put a downer on it but Zabit went into that fight with a broken hand. The performance may seem like he done well, but it shouldn't really give much confidence losing to somebody with one hand. Maybe Bochniak by dec is worth a play though.
 
nebulousned said:
How do you guys feel about mr Kyle Bochniak by sub. Sean looked like he had some pretty terrible jits in his last fight with his coaches needing to teach him how to get out of a body triangle during the fight.

Bochniak has 2 submission wins out of his 12 fights, seems comfortable shooting on his opponent (im watching him shoot on Brandon Davis now) and considering Sean has a strong amateur record as a boxer it would strike me as an appealing gameplan.

My bookie is paying out 10 dollars for 1 dollar for Kyle by sub, so i might jog on down to the pub tomorrow and put a few dollars there.
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should add that Woodson was short notice and had to cut 24 pounds in 5 days for that McKinney fight. He was trying to be relaxed in the grappling exchanges because he knew he didn't have much cardio in him from that tough weight cut.

“Hands down, it was the hardest thing I’ve ever done in my life,” Woodson said. “It’s a miracle I was able to get it done. Right away, I had to go straight keto, no carbs, so that had me feeling pretty drained. It was just a huge water cut. It was the most I had to cut in my life and it was just extremely draining. It was mentally taxing, too. The weight cut was one thing but, in the back of mind, after I cut all of this weight, I still have to get in there with a collegiate level wrestler that’s going to put the pressure on you and really test my cardio. It’s a mental battle, a physical battle and a huge thing I had to overcome. I’m super glad that I did.”

Despite feeling like the weight cut hindered his performance, Woodson felt like his cardio held up better than McKinney’s. “In the back warming up, I could feel my cardio took a hit from this weight cut,” Woodson said. “I normally have really good cardio, but cutting 24 pounds in five days really zapped me, and that’s another reason I knew I had to be going for it. After that first grappling exchange, I felt like he was more tired than me, so it ended up working for me.” “Whenever we started the grappling portions, I could feel my cardio took a real big hit from that weight cut,” Woodson said. “I knew going in that any grappling exchanges we got into, I was going to have to be really smart and conserve my energy.”

Also he has been spending some time training with James Krause as well
 
Red_2 said:
Not to put a downer on it but Zabit went into that fight with a broken hand. The performance may seem like he done well, but it shouldn't really give much confidence losing to somebody with one hand. Maybe Bochniak by dec is worth a play though.
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Ah thanks, good point. Still his last lose on the canada card (not gonna try to spell the other guys name lol) I thought was solid.
Kyle seems to struggle with ranged strikers that pressure him. Woodson seems to only have the tall part down his striking isn't great. Kyle should be able to out grapple Sean with ease. If you haven't seen Woodson vs Lovelace 2 I'd recommend it, part of why I'm fading him here. That and he shouldn't have won his last fight let alone a contract because Mckinney dove into his knee.
 
Red_2 said:
Not to put a downer on it but Zabit went into that fight with a broken hand. The performance may seem like he done well, but it shouldn't really give much confidence losing to somebody with one hand. Maybe Bochniak by dec is worth a play though.
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I'm hoping it's 30-27 across the board.

<HisEye>
 
EvoIXDan said:
lol. Dude. She likely trained with Askren for 2 days at the most. She’s fat, will gas from Robertson’s pressure. Only way she wins is fluke KO or gift decision.
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Oh hi I put 20u on Robertson so I base all of my decisions on conjecture.
 
Rosa-Bermudez is a difficult fight to choose, I like Rosa pressure, volume and agression but it's difficult to trust someone with so low activity, at the same time we have Bermudez pretty active.

but who is better in the grond?
 
Definitely playing Gillian and Holland.

Considering Winn, Yair, Rosa and Bochniak. Also a parlay on Hardy/Meatball/Brady.

Talked myself out of touching anything else.
 
Oblivian said:
I'm not surprised. I said that I think he'll be bigger than Rosa.
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He didn't look particularly big, looked like a guy too lazy to get in shape and cut weight properly. He won't be rehydrating a lot of weight here and I doubt his fight night weight is too outrageous.
 
LMAO. How did Berm do it again? Didn't he weigh in 140 like 2 months ago?
 
Jordan3399 said:
He didn't look particularly big, looked like a guy too lazy to get in shape and cut weight properly. He won't be rehydrating a lot of weight here and I doubt his fight night weight is too outrageous.
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he looked pretty worn out and lean if you ask me, crazy he fought in even a lower weightclass!
 
damn the midget Winn missed weight as well!
 
UFC Boston Official Weigh-in stream from this morning:

 
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