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Giving some more thought to Menifield vs. OSP, I'm left with: will Menifield really be able to get in on OSP without clinching up?

Staying at range, on the butt end of OSP's 4" reach advantage, is of course not an option. But in his last fights whenever Menifield weaves into range he ends up in the clinch. It was sort of his undoing against Devin Clarke, where the clinching combined with Clarke's takedowns exhausted him. Against both Moreira and Craig he was able to overpower them, but nonetheless he couldn't help clinching up with dangerous grapplers.

In other words, if Menifield is able to track OSP down they will most likely end up in the clinch time and time again. In which case I can very easily see a similar scenario playing out as in how OSP finished Oleksiejczuk.
 
Anyone know Mike McClure's for today's fight? everyone seems to be on the same page when it comes to Mariya Agapova which i agree as well.
 
piglord said:
not sure about this line movement on lemos, value now on inoue -125 imo.
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Why? You're speculating on Lemos' cardio when it comes to whether Inoue is a rightful small favorite, even, or should be the dog. Unless you have some inside info...

Anywho, while initially interested in St. Preux at plus number, think I will pass on his fight against Menifield and advise others to do likewise on this trainwreck of a card.

Yes, Menifield has little except for a right hand, decent takedown defense, and solid GNP, and he is hampered by both poor cardio and poor fight IQ.

At the same time, this might not be so easy for a largely washed-up St. Preux to exploit. St. Preux's own cardio is fairly weak (far worse than Devin Clark's), and he might not be able to take Menifield down, anyways, whose takedown defense is very solid. Not that Menifield is an automatic victory once taken down like Michel Olek was; even a badly gassed Menifield posted up decently well next to the cage after Clark finally took him down halfway through the 3rd.

Meanwhile, St. Preux's defense and reaction time is a mess nowadays, and he is increasingly easy to hurt. He will likely eat a number of hard rights from Menifield, and unlike those from the smaller Olek, they may be enough to finish him. Hoping that he fades those connects, gets the takedowns against Menifield and taps him there, and/or fades those connects and has much better cardio are both not quite probable enough at a mere +102.

Of course, it could go to a close decision with both men gassing after clinching too much as well.
 
how do people see Villanueva/ Wright goin down? Seems like it could look a lot like Hernandez/ Wright
 
matthew55 said:
how do people see Villanueva/ Wright goin down? Seems like it could look a lot like Hernandez/ Wright
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My feeling is that anyone betting on the fight is a true degenerate.

Predicting fights is hard enough under normal circumstances, where both guys are the same weight class, both have full camps, aren't coming off recent and brutal knockout losses, etc.

How the hell do you guess at a 200 vs. 230 pound fighter where the 200 pound fighter is competing on about 2 days' notice and the 230 pound fighter received a brutal beating and knockout only 3 months ago?
 
PolarBearPaulVarelans said:
My feeling is that anyone betting on the fight is a true degenerate.

Predicting fights is hard enough under normal circumstances, where both guys are the same weight class, both have full camps, aren't coming off recent and brutal knockout losses, etc.

How the hell do you guess at a 200 vs. 230 pound fighter where the 200 pound fighter is competing on about 2 days' notice and the 230 pound fighter received a brutal beating and knockout only 3 months ago?
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maybe by watching their fights and taking all those things into account? I mean you don't have to respond if you just wanna throw hot takes on why we shouldn't bet on a fight, just scroll on man..I'd rather hear from someone that feels like they have an actual read on the fight
 
matthew55 said:
how do people see Villanueva/ Wright goin down? Seems like it could look a lot like Hernandez/ Wright
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villanueva is pretty bad but he's tough and comes forward (which threw wright off in the contender series fight as you mentioned). think wright's ptv is a r1 ko. not enough tape on wright past r1. could easily gas with short notice. i think wright is the rightful small fav though although he looked horrendous in that contender series fight. and he's only had one fight since then (another R1 win against a can) so who knows how much he's improved. with that said, i personally will probably play him moreso as a fade of ike but look to hedge if it goes past r1 or if his gas tank goes AWOL rapidly
 
InTheCut said:
villanueva is pretty bad but he's tough and comes forward (which threw wright off in the contender series fight as you mentioned). think wright's ptv is a r1 ko. not enough tape on wright past r1. could easily gas with short notice. i think wright is the rightful small fav though although he looked horrendous in that contender series fight. and he's only had one fight since then (another R1 win against a can) so who knows how much he's improved. with that said, i personally will probably play him moreso as a fade of ike but look to hedge if it goes past r1 or if his gas tank goes AWOL rapidly
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thank you, I think I'm just gonna play the under and then maybe live bet..just think I need one of em in my draft kings lineups lol
 
matthew55 said:
maybe by watching their fights and taking all those things into account? I mean you don't have to respond if you just wanna throw hot takes on why we shouldn't bet on a fight, just scroll on man..I'd rather hear from someone that feels like they have an actual read on the fight
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Tbf, on a betting forum, where making money is the objective, it is perfectly reasonable advocating not betting a fight. All fights don't have value.
 
BaruchSpinoza said:
Tbf, on a betting forum, where making money is the objective, it is perfectly reasonable advocating not betting a fight. All fights don't have value.
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lol I knew there'd be at least one of these responses..I understand that, but we could play that game for every single fight ever
 
matthew55 said:
maybe by watching their fights and taking all those things into account? I mean you don't have to respond if you just wanna throw hot takes on why we shouldn't bet on a fight, just scroll on man..I'd rather hear from someone that feels like they have an actual read on the fight
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How can you possibly quantify the advantage of having a full camp versus one's opponent being on 2 days' notice? Especially since, unless we're personal friends with Jordan Wright, we don't know what kind of shape he was in prior to getting the call? Nevermind the other completely nebulous factors.

And I am giving you advice. It's fundamentally impossible to get a "read" here unless you have personal knowledge of one or both camps. Pass on this fight.
 
PolarBearPaulVarelans said:
Meanwhile, St. Preux's defense and reaction time is a mess nowadays, and he is increasingly easy to hurt. He will likely eat a number of hard rights from Menifield, and unlike those from the smaller Olek, they may be enough to finish him. Hoping that he fades those connects, gets the takedowns against Menifield and taps him there, and/or fades those connects and has much better cardio are both not quite probable enough at a mere +102.
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St. Preux will undoubtedly have to eat some shots. If he shells up the way he did a couple times agaisnt Olek I imagine Alonzo would likely finish him. But both Olek and Rothwell were able to stalk OSP up against the fence and, while maintaining distance, continuously connect on him. I don't see Alonzo being able to do that, after a two punch combo he collapses into his opponents and rather than getting OSP to shell up they will find themselves clinching.

I'm leaning towards a unit on OSP at +110...
 
Broe. said:
After seeing bader look slow and old at 37 after moving back down to light heavyweight, I can't help but feel like OSP at 37 doing the same thing might look slow and old as well. Menifield is a lot faster than Rothwell!
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He certainly is, but he also has 4" less reach, and I would imagine that, though Menifield packs a punch, being 60 lbs heavier, Rothwell hits harder. But for me the main difference is that Rothwell is both happy to clinch and able to maintain distance when he wants to. Menifield shouldn't clinch with OSP, but I don't think he can help it.
 
Prachino Round 1 is +850. Almost all of his wins are in the first. He's got accumulation stoppages, head kicks, knees, and we've seen him ice a guy with one punch before. Doesn't seem particularly outlandish an outcome considering "Slow" was just knocked out in a minute and Prach is legitimately very hard hitting...
 
NewLockGuy said:
Prachino Round 1 is +850. Almost all of his wins are in the first. He's got accumulation stoppages, head kicks, knees, and we've seen him ice a guy with one punch before. Doesn't seem particularly outlandish an outcome considering "Slow" was just knocked out in a minute and Prach is legitimately very hard hitting...
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Dont think Prachnio hits as hard as he is wild. Sure he can land a haymaker but Mike fights lot more technically. And he got iced by a real crisp boxer
 
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