UFC on FOX 29 Poirier vs Gaethje

[Roads55]

Of course it's how you win long term. You need to consider ALL possibilities, and there is absolutely no reason to be confident on the precise level of goodness of Izzy who has elite talent but is unproven against real competition.

I will stick to my guns that Vettori is a terrible bet and I don't think anybody should be touching him. This is a clear Izzy or pass situation to me, and I'm still trying to decide which I will choose.

ofc consider all possibilities but im talking about being that erratic with your leans, it can be dangerous also.

 

[8oh5]

Really liking the under 2.5 on condit/cowboy at +170 anyone else on this?

 

[Roads55]

edit: got the lines mixed up

 

[Sham5916910]

Look i dont trust dp. Said hed fight measured against miller and eddie and look what happened. But people relying on jg chin are taking a serious risk. Every fight is a life or death battle for him and holy fuck 10 sig strikes absorbed per min in 2 ufc fights and coming off a ko loss that chin may now be all she wrote. Id argue dp is the most accurate hardest hitter hes faced too.

 

[Sham5916910]

Gaethe lost one fight in his entire career and got stopped only that one time late in round 3 after a sustained back & forth brawl with hard hitting Eddie Alvarez where he ate tons of hard shots to the head and body. And it took an insane knee strike to drop him at that. Now all of a sudden his chin is cracked and he's getting knocked out early? Huge change that you guys are counting on. Dustin is surely better than most if not all of Justin's previous opponents, sure, but this would be a gigantic u-turn in Justin's career and put him quickly on the way to the end if true.

It isnt a huge change. He gets rocked every fight even against sub standard opposition. You just cant eat the shots hes eaten already and expect his chin to last. Hes fought 2 ufc calibre guys his whole career and in one fight he got kod and in another almost taken out twice. His style is not good enough at this level and yes im pretty sure his chin is borderline cracked

 

[raketmannen]

For what it's worth, front page story on Sherdog is about Poirier and he is specifically saying he does NOT want to get sucked into a firefight with Justin.

Yeah, just words, I know. But the fact that he's cognizant of it to the point that he's outright saying it pre-fight makes me think he really does want to play the matador here and/or mix in his grappling.

Rewatched Miller/Poirier yesterday and it gave me a lot more confidence in Gaethje based on Millers "success", especially with lowkicks. The commentary mentioned many times how Poirier had been talking in every interview he had done leading up to the fight that he was going to be defensivly responsible and not getting sucked in to a brawl, still when Miller was slightly hurt or backed up Poirier just started swinging like a mad man. He was able to control himself much better against Alvarez but same there, when he hurt him in the second round he threw all caution to the wind. I don't think Poirier ever goes in with the intention to just bang it out, he just can't resist.

I thought they had some great points when breaking down this fight on Heavy Hands this week

 

[Roads55]

it isn't primarily gaethje's chin or strikes absorbed that worries me but the length of his turnaround, combined with poiriers accuracy and power, he's going to eat shots here at some point, and we could see a big decline in his ability to absorb shots. Can see poirier hitting 1.65 or lower at some point before the fight starts.

 

[Jamah]

 

[raketmannen]

it isn't primarily gaethje's chin or strikes absorbed that worries me but the length of his turnaround, combined with poiriers accuracy and power, he's going to eat shots here at some point, and we could see a big decline in his ability to absorb shots. Can see poirier hitting 1.65 or lower at some point before the fight starts.

The turn around is a real concern, but I think Poiriers price will improve before the fight, I think he will close around -125

 

[onC]

I have a shitload of money on Vettori already, but I still think the line might get better. So many casuals are just blindly riding the Israel hypetrain.

I cant see a scenario where Vettori doesnt try to wrestle. He trains at a big camp under solid coaching. He would have to be a literal idiot to try to stand three rounds with Israel, and I still think he would have a chance of winning just because of his size and grit. Wilkinson controlled Adesanya against the fence for quite a while before getting lit up.

 

[DarkneT]

Look i dont trust dp. Said hed fight measured against miller and eddie and look what happened. But people relying on jg chin are taking a serious risk. Every fight is a life or death battle for him and holy fuck 10 sig strikes absorbed per min in 2 ufc fights and coming off a ko loss that chin may now be all she wrote. Id argue dp is the most accurate hardest hitter hes faced too.

I'm with you
DP cannot resist the brawl and Justin won't give give him the option anyway

 

[onC]

I'm with you
DP cannot resist the brawl and Justin won't give give him the option anyway

Usually I'd agree with you, but I think Poirier looks much smarter now that he grew his hair out.

Spoiler

Poirier by 5 extra fight iq points

 

[Karmello]

Really liking the under 2.5 on condit/cowboy at +170 anyone else on this?

For sure value here, most of the time this is not going past 2.5 rounds. But I might take the DNGTD at +120 instead, just to be sure.

I initially bet Condit, but I'm really not feeling it anymore, everything about him just seems of and I think he's done. And I think if Condit wins and that's a big IF, it's going to be by finish. So it's much smarter for me to take the U2.5/DNGTD at almost the same odds instead.

 

[michi972]

How do you think Boetsch will handle defending takedowns?

 

[clemente]

Vettori should collect this one pretty easily

 

[Larthus]

Just watched Vettori v. Akhmedov. He was getting facefucked by strikes round 1. Looked like a slow sloppy bastard.

Dammit I'm too emotionally invested in Israel.. am I being a foolish shill or is Vettori a dog that's going to get euthanized

 

[Naught2Sixty]

If you don't wanna bet Marvin that's fine.

The real problem is people betting Israel at this price. Too easy to argue how undeserving it is to have him this juiced.

Agreed 100%. I'm passing but I see the angle on betting Vettori. Very clear path to victory against a commodity untested at the higher level.

 

[Sham5916910]

Solid question. I actually like ACJ in this spot since I think he'll outkick Boetsch at range as well as the ground advantage. But I am curious his approach to getting the td. Easiest way with Boetsch seems to be catch the kick and turn it into a single or double. Hes strong in the clinch so that doesn't seem like the right approach. Hoping ACJ drops to around -220 before I officially play him cause of these questions.

I thought this pre tape re Tim being strong in the clinch but he actually isn't. I think i thought that cos of his debut against Heath where he tossed him on his head. Tavares, Samman and i think Leites all managed to boss him in the clinch so i still expect ACJ to control him in the clinch. He could also use the approach he used on Kelly where he shot from the outside and immediately hopped on Kelly's back as he tried to stand. Boestch is a complete turtle on his back. But there is something stopping me pulling the trigger on ACJ.

 

[Jamah]

I thought this pre tape re Tim being strong in the clinch but he actually isn't. I think i thought that cos of his debut against Heath where he tossed him on his head. Tavares, Samman and i think Leites all managed to boss him in the clinch so i still expect ACJ to control him in the clinch. He could also use the approach he used on Kelly where he shot from the outside and immediately hopped on Kelly's back as he tried to stand. Boestch is a complete turtle on his back. But there is something stopping me pulling the trigger on ACJ.

It's probably his loss against Dan Kelly because he obviously quit.

 

[mkess101]

It's probably his loss against Dan Kelly because he obviously quit.

That and the fact that for all his obvious flaws, Boetsch carries his power throughout fights and has a lot of comeback KO wins. Betting a juiced favorite against a guy like that is nervewracking.

That said, if you bet AJC and he conrols rd 1, good chance you get Tim +400 or so live before rd 2 so you can hedge a bit against Tim landing that bomb.