UFC Vegas 70: Krylov vs. Spann, Feb 25

[guesswhoseback]

you can do it bro

Lol thanks

 

[Captain Chesapeake]

I see some morning movement on juice I already thought was too much

Muniz -200
Mallot -220
Sakai -125
Krylov -170

get these guys even more juiced so I can play the other side

 

[Stat_Collector]

I see some morning movement on juice I already thought was too much

Muniz -200
Mallot -220
Sakai -125
Krylov -170

get these guys even more juiced so I can play the other side

i'd be surprised if Allen could beat Muniz. He got grounded by Daukus and Malkoun for 7 mins.

Mallot is better everywhere, Yohan has a puncher's chance but look at his average performance against Weeks.

Sakai should win with better experience, but he's looked like shit in the last four fights, I do think there is a bit of recency bias. Sakai would have been a -300 a few fights ago, he went at least 4 rounds with Overeem, beat the likes of Blagoy and Tybura which are two solid wins and better than anything Mayes has done. Mayes matched Roque Martinez in exact stats.

and i like Krylov but acknowledge Spann as a treat, i just lower exposure of Krylov in my parlays. Spann will be favorable for the first 5 mins, after that he slowly starts to fade.

 

[Captain Chesapeake]

i'd be surprised if Allen could beat Muniz. He got grounded by Daukus and Malkoun for 7 mins.

Mallot is better everywhere, Yohan has a puncher's chance but look at his average performance against Weeks.

Sakai should win with better experience, but he's looked like shit in the last four fights, I do think there is a bit of recency bias. Sakai would have been a -300 a few fights ago, he went at least 4 rounds with Overeem, beat the likes of Blagoy and Tybura which are two solid wins and better than anything Mayes has done. Mayes matched Roque Martinez in exact stats.

and i like Krylov but acknowledge Spann as a treat, i just lower exposure of Krylov in my parlays. Spann will be favorable for the first 5 mins, after that he slowly starts to fade.

Hopefully they all get juiced out of control.

Mallot has beaten…Mickey gall in the ufc. And now he’s going to dominate yohan? You want to lay juice on that?

Augusto sakai the slowest turtle in the ufc, you want to play him at over 55% with the way he’s looked in his last outings?

muniz at -200 is betting on him being able to backpack Allen for 3 rounds. No thanks

krylov is going to get to close to -200 when Spann can nuke him in rd 1 with that nasty straight left

there are just guys who you shouldn’t lay juice on. These spots are garbage for favorites yet people pile on them. Awfully brave

I sure don’t love the other sides but at a certain price I’m willing to take a shot

 

[Stat_Collector]

Hopefully they all get juiced out of control.

Mallot has beaten…Mickey gall in the ufc. And now he’s going to dominate yohan? You want to lay juice on that?

Augusto sakai the slowest turtle in the ufc, you want to play him at over 55% with the way he’s looked in his last outings?

muniz at -200 is betting on him being able to backpack Allen for 3 rounds. No thanks

krylov is going to get to close to -200 when Spann can nuke him in rd 1 with that nasty straight left

there are just guys who you shouldn’t lay juice on. These spots are garbage for favorites yet people pile on them. Awfully brave

I sure don’t love the other sides but at a certain price I’m willing to take a shot

It's hard to lay the juice on most favorite over -200,. For dog bets , i prefer Jose, Jas, and Alves.

For these favorites id prefer parlay or prop betting.

Mallot last three wins is pretty decent, besides Mickey Gall , Renfro and Shimon are pretty decent. While Yohan has power he's looked only good in the regionals and dwcs. Mallot has only been koed by Hakeem who has higher rated kos than Yohan. Yohan can load up a punch pretty well, but he's also known to shoot takedowns with his neck exposed, he got put in a guillotine in his dwcs fight, and i can see him getting choked by Mallot, I'd play Mallot by sub 1-2 and get more value than ML.

Mayes is very durable which will give me plus odds for Sakai decision. Which he can surely do. Yes he is slow and fat but so is Mayes. Mayes doesn't have the top pressure of a Spivak to really ground Sakai who is far more battle tested.

Muniz decision can also be very nice odds, a lot of book makers and bettors always assume Muniz to tap out his opp, and you can get somewhere like 300+ for decision prop, i got his dec prop at 500+ vs Uriah Hall, I do think Allen will get back packed , he's not exactly a good heavy handed fighter. I would argue Uriah Hall is more dangerous than Allen and could not catch Muniz.

Krylov has eaten better shots from better punchers than Spann, while it's possible, I favor the fighter who looks good for 20 mins than 5 mins.

I like Spann Sub prop 1-2 and Krylov by ko rnds 3-4 .

I get that the money lines are shit but the props can be very nice for these favorites.

 

[Captain Chesapeake]

It's hard to lay the juice on most favorite over -200,. For dog bets , i prefer Jose, Jas, and Alves.

For these favorites id prefer parlay or prop betting.

Mallot last three wins is pretty decent, besides Mickey Gall , Renfro and Shimon are pretty decent. While Yohan has power he's looked only good in the regionals and dwcs. Mallot has only been koed by Hakeem who has higher rated kos than Yohan. Yohan can load up a punch pretty well, but he's also known to shoot takedowns with his neck exposed, he got put in a guillotine in his dwcs fight, and i can see him getting choked by Mallot, I'd play Mallot by sub 1-2 and get more value than ML.

Mayes is very durable which will give me plus odds for Sakai decision. Which he can surely do. Yes he is slow and fat but so is Mayes. Mayes doesn't have the top pressure of a Spivak to really ground Sakai who is far more battle tested.

Muniz decision can also be very nice odds, a lot of book makers and bettors always assume Muniz to tap out his opp, and you can get somewhere like 300+ for decision prop, i got his dec prop at 500+ vs Uriah Hall, I do think Allen will get back packed , he's not exactly a good heavy handed fighter. I would argue Uriah Hall is more dangerous than Allen and could not catch Muniz.

Krylov has eaten better shots from better punchers than Spann, while it's possible, I favor the fighter who looks good for 20 mins than 5 mins.

I like Spann Sub prop 1-2 and Krylov by ko rnds 3-4 .

I get that the money lines are shit but the props can be very nice for these favorites.

I am a man of the props.

 

[Stat_Collector]

I am a man of the props.

I like Alves by submission. This Aliev guy goes to decision with some very low rated fighters. He loses top position all the time , kept losing it against a 9-4 russian fighter. Alves is a master of the guillotine, if he can submit a ufc vet like Diakiase he can sub this kid. The fight has similar elements of Emmers vs Khusein.

 

[Hellowhosthat]

It's hard to lay the juice on most favorite over -200,. For dog bets , i prefer Jose, Jas, and Alves.

For these favorites id prefer parlay or prop betting.

Mallot last three wins is pretty decent, besides Mickey Gall , Renfro and Shimon are pretty decent. While Yohan has power he's looked only good in the regionals and dwcs. Mallot has only been koed by Hakeem who has higher rated kos than Yohan. Yohan can load up a punch pretty well, but he's also known to shoot takedowns with his neck exposed, he got put in a guillotine in his dwcs fight, and i can see him getting choked by Mallot, I'd play Mallot by sub 1-2 and get more value than ML.

Mayes is very durable which will give me plus odds for Sakai decision. Which he can surely do. Yes he is slow and fat but so is Mayes. Mayes doesn't have the top pressure of a Spivak to really ground Sakai who is far more battle tested.

Muniz decision can also be very nice odds, a lot of book makers and bettors always assume Muniz to tap out his opp, and you can get somewhere like 300+ for decision prop, i got his dec prop at 500+ vs Uriah Hall, I do think Allen will get back packed , he's not exactly a good heavy handed fighter. I would argue Uriah Hall is more dangerous than Allen and could not catch Muniz.

Krylov has eaten better shots from better punchers than Spann, while it's possible, I favor the fighter who looks good for 20 mins than 5 mins.

I like Spann Sub prop 1-2 and Krylov by ko rnds 3-4 .

I get that the money lines are shit but the props can be very nice for these favorites.

What do you like about Jas? I think she's getting trashed.


Also I'm taking Leavitt. Martinez has mixed results against low level comp.

 

[Captain Chesapeake]

In the last 2.5 years, sakai is 0-4 losing by knockout in all 4 fights

he’s only 31 but he’s like 45 in fight years.

 

[Captain Chesapeake]

I like Alves by submission. This Aliev guy goes to decision with some very low rated fighters. He loses top position all the time , kept losing it against a 9-4 russian fighter. Alves is a master of the guillotine, if he can submit a ufc vet like Diakiase he can sub this kid. The fight has similar elements of Emmers vs Khusein.

Alves also has that ridiculous squeeze

 

[Captain Chesapeake]

I may like ode at +165. Going to look at cowan as well

 

[Stat_Collector]

What do you like about Jas? I think she's getting trashed.


Also I'm taking Leavitt. Martinez has mixed results against low level comp.

Martinez never won her dwcs fight so her entry to the ufc is unproven, she went from fighting D level fighter to a C+ borderline B- fighter with solid wrestling credentials.

Another red flag is decision with Shamara Braga | MMA Fighter Page | Tapology , Antonia Silvaneide ("Marretinha") | MMA Fighter Page | Tapology

For a girl that big and strong she should have better stopping power. She also lost a match to Maria Silva who is a smaller grappler in 2018. It's a long time ago but that should tell you that her weakness is a grappler, which Jas is a wrestler so she hits the checkmark for a good dog money.

Victor has very basic ground defense, Leavitt just needs to fight smart and shoot for the legs and he can ground and coast to dec. Worst case scenario is he gets into kickboxing mode and gives up rounds.

In the last 2.5 years, sakai is 0-4 losing by knockout in all 4 fights

he’s only 31 but he’s like 45 in fight years.

It's possible Sakai is the new Dom reyes. But i have to go by the context of those losses. If you match Mayes against Overeem, Rozen, Spivak , Tai , you think he beats any of them? This is a drop in competition for Sakai. If he loses this fight then he's washed.

 

[Thesnake101]

I like Alves by submission. This Aliev guy goes to decision with some very low rated fighters. He loses top position all the time , kept losing it against a 9-4 russian fighter. Alves is a master of the guillotine, if he can submit a ufc vet like Diakiase he can sub this kid. The fight has similar elements of Emmers vs Khusein.

Also like that one, Alves is pretty damn athletic and had moments where he made Ismagulov a bit uncomfortable with his unorthodox attack. Probably put him on a parlay or something.

 

[Danis_champ]

Also like that one, Alves is pretty damn athletic and had moments where he made Ismagulov a bit uncomfortable with his unorthodox attack. Probably put him on a parlay or something.

I agree. It's baffling to see Alves as such big underdog.

Alves is BIG step up from this guy. Nurullo only 8-0 and hasn't beaten anyone relevant.

 

[Danis_champ]

What's with the hype behind Jose Johnson? Ronnie Lawrence took him down 12 times and Cartwright no gas tank and trash British wrestling took him down 6 times. Armfield seems like quite okay wrestler. What makes you guys think he beats Armfield? Armfield on short notice gave bunch of trouble for Onama. Height and reach advantage for Jose. So what? he can't defend a TD to save his life. I see Armfield taking him down and holding him down for 3 rounds and you guys gonna be upset when he can't get up.

 

[UFCIsNOTRigged]

She also lost a match to Maria Silva who is a smaller grappler in 2018. It's a long time ago but that should tell you that her weakness is a grappler, which Jas is a wrestler so she hits the checkmark for a good dog money.

Maria Silva is quite good and definitely UFC caliber. I haven't seen their fight yet but at face value I wouldn't take a loss to her as a negative sign.

 

[BigSteve]

What's with the hype behind Jose Johnson? Ronnie Lawrence took him down 12 times and Cartwright no gas tank and trash British wrestling took him down 6 times. Armfield seems like quite okay wrestler. What makes you guys think he beats Armfield? Armfield on short notice gave bunch of trouble for Onama. Height and reach advantage for Jose. So what? he can't defend a TD to save his life. I see Armfield taking him down and holding him down for 3 rounds and you guys gonna be upset when he can't get up.

he always gets up and sweeps. His grappling is improving, and he dishes out a lot more damage. He still cant stop a TD though

 

[Thesnake101]

he always gets up and sweeps. His grappling is improving, and he dishes out a lot more damage. He still cant stop a TD though

Could be one of those split decisions that go towards the guy doing the damage.

I'll have to tape Garrett, but his record doesn't look extraordinary, and while the Onama showing might be good, I think David has proven himself to be a bit inconsistent.

 

[BigSteve]

Could be one of those split decisions that go towards the guy doing the damage.

I'll have to tape Garrett, but his record doesn't look extraordinary, and while the Onama showing might be good, I think David has proven himself to be a bit inconsistent.

Johnsons level of competition is miles ahead. He has KOed so many potential prospects with one strike its insane. He has his weakness, although he is way more tested. Garret made his bones on the Shamrock circuit. He is still young though so who knows

 

[Thesnake101]

Johnsons level of competition is miles ahead. He has KOed so many potential prospects with one strike its insane. He has his weakness, although he is way more tested. Garret made his bones on the Shamrock circuit. He is still young though so who knows

Oh yeah, Jose's record is very misleading since he's something like 9-2 in his last 11, most of those coming against talented prospects. I have him finding something early, most likely a KO but could see Garret shooting out of desperation and getting choked.

Tbh without the Mana loss I think Jose would be a strong favorite here.