UFC Vegas 83: Song Yadong vs Chris Gutierrez, December 9

[Stat_Collector]

I'm also worried about the gas tank of Khalil. He looked really tired and sloppy vs Jacoby already in R2. If he looks the same vs Smith in the 2nd round I can see Smith having success with takedowns.
With that said, i really don't trust Smith any more. He feels washed and I don't think his head is in the game any longer. I'm also not sure Smith has what it takes to push the pace vs Khalil the same way Jacoby did, so fight might take place at the pace that Khalil wants and in that case Khalils cardio and takedown defence probably holds up.
I can see Khalil just breaking him in R1 with leg kicks and brutal punches. Might play Khalil R1 and nothing else.

Smith seems washed, but he’s always been the same. he’s only 35 and Khalil is 33.

Smith has always been somewhat timid and defensive, so he can throw off that washed energy. I’m just going by a hunch that he knows when to utilize grappling to his advantage, i think he knows Khalil is weak there. I do see anthony having the ability to rnc or ground ctrl, i also dont see a wide striking gap. Smith has more methods to win , i like him here for those odds.

 

[Jasper_RB81]

Took Egger at +155, feels like a steal. Luana is not good. The KO if Miller wasn't that impressive, very sloppy and chaotic... also Miller is of questionable caliber.
Luana was pretty soundly broken by Bishop as well. She seem to fade quite a bit in that fight and lost R2 and R3 pretty convincingly.
Egger might not be a world beater, but she has descent top control and takedowns. Striking is a bit stiff but I think she is ok defensively. I think she could keep it even on the feet and the score some takedowns and control time.

 

[UFCIsNOTRigged]

I think she could keep it even on the feet and the score some takedowns and control time.

Egger has absolutely no chance if the fight stays on the feet.

 

[Broe.]

Egger has absolutely no chance if the fight stays on the feet.

Erger is better now than she was in this fight

 

[Jinx_AA]

Luana santos at -160 seems like a steal … she should ktfo egger

WMMA always risky - but those are good looking odds from a financial stand point

I also think Carlos Hernandez at +380 is a dog stab single bet for sure …. Taira has looked less than impressive last few times out and Carlos just keeps getting better - if he can stuff the takedowns he should smoke Taira on the feet (big IF) …. But I thought he looked like he leveled up bigitme against Denys Bondar last time out …. I think the time to
Fade Taira is here - just because of the crazy wide odds

Nasrat/costa/marcos all seem
Like pretty safe parlay pieces ….. and I like park to
Beat Muniz with underrated grappling skills , underrated jab / striking , and most importantly pace and cardio - he will Take over eventually and break Muniz


My intial thoughts ^

 

[Jasper_RB81]

Egger has absolutely no chance if the fight stays on the feet.

That was 6 years ago and her 3rd fight ever, so doesn't feel too relevant.

Luana has the more snappy standup for sure and she cracked Bishop a few times with a nice straight down the middle. But look at the Alekseeva fight for Egger. Alekseeva was pouring on with wild swinging hooks and Egger was blocking most of the shots pretty well. I'm not rating Luana much higher than Alekseeva in terms of striking, they looked equally flailing.
I think / hope we see a lot of cage pressure from both fighters, I think this is where Egger will have success.

Not a pick I'm going to fight tooth and nail for, but I like the odds on Egger.

 

[Broe.]

Luana Santos is also moving up in weight lol. Egger as a dog is therefore a no brainer.

 

[UFCIsNOTRigged]

That was 6 years ago and her 3rd fight ever, so doesn't feel too relevant.

Luana has the more snappy standup for sure and she cracked Bishop a few times with a nice straight down the middle. But look at the Alekseeva fight for Egger. Alekseeva was pouring on with wild swinging hooks and Egger was blocking most of the shots pretty well. I'm not rating Luana much higher than Alekseeva in terms of striking, they looked equally flailing.
I think / hope we see a lot of cage pressure from both fighters, I think this is where Egger will have success.

Not a pick I'm going to fight tooth and nail for, but I like the odds on Egger.

My point was it doesn't matter if Luana has the second worst striking in the division if Stephanie has the worst striking. As long as Luana's striking matches up well against the striking of Egger then its a discernible advantage Luana holds and can potentially use to win the fight.

There will be a time to fade Luana, she has bad conditioning which a well conditioned and skilled opponent could use to break her late in a fight, but its not against a 35 year old opponent that has been submitted by every good submission grappler she has faced in the UFC.

 

[Marko Atanasovik]

Jousett to win
Haqparast fight go to the distance

 

[Jasper_RB81]

Anyone betting the Tim vs Sumudaerji fight?

I really like Tim in the matchup, but the short notice bothers me... I also don't like that he talked about wanting to stand up and fight today on the media day. Might mean nothing but if he makes this a stand up fight I don't like his chances, Sumudaerji hits hard.
If Tim is in good shape and goes for takedown and grappling, I think he dominates this fight, possibly even subs Sumudaerji.
Odds seems to be getting closer, so people like Sumudaerji.

 

[sonhow]

I think Elliot is better than Allen but its short notice and these odds are close af.
So they just killed my best play and now I have no idea what to do with this fight.

 

[Guld]

Song is now -400 and Gutierrez is +300
Based on competition faced, Song should be the fav, but after watching a fair bit of tape I think this has all the makings of a big underdog win.
Song has good boxing, heavy hands (albeit it with short/stocky reach), is durable, and can keep coming for five rounds.
He also has some passable grappling.
However, he is VERY lead leg heavy, and just plods forward to reset that lead leg.
Gutierrez is a fantastic leg kicker (I think his teammate Johnathan Martinez is even better, but that's besides the point haha)
Gutierrez loves being able to control the distance and chip away at that lead leg, and Song is exactly the style that falls into that.
Gutierrez has also never been KO/TKOd (as far as I'm aware) so I'm not even worried about him eating a counter or two. Song cracks hard though, so maybe it'll be too much but maybe not.

So yeah, at +300 I think Gutierrez is the bet to make. At the very least, this fight could be a great bet for livebetting.

 

[UFCIsNOTRigged]

Song is now -400 and Gutierrez is +300
Based on competition faced, Song should be the fav, but after watching a fair bit of tape I think this has all the makings of a big underdog win.
Song has good boxing, heavy hands (albeit it with short/stocky reach), is durable, and can keep coming for five rounds.
He also has some passable grappling.
However, he is VERY lead leg heavy, and just plods forward to reset that lead leg.
Gutierrez is a fantastic leg kicker (I think his teammate Johnathan Martinez is even better, but that's besides the point haha)
Gutierrez loves being able to control the distance and chip away at that lead leg, and Song is exactly the style that falls into that.
Gutierrez has also never been KO/TKOd (as far as I'm aware) so I'm not even worried about him eating a counter or two. Song cracks hard though, so maybe it'll be too much but maybe not.

So yeah, at +300 I think Gutierrez is the bet to make. At the very least, this fight could be a great bet for livebetting.

What's going to prevent Song from showing Gutierrez absolutely no respect, walking him down and in doing so putting Gutierrez on his backfoot immediately, before inevitably clipping him in the pocket with his explosive power? If Song was willing to walk a power puncher like Marlon Moraes down, until Moraes was forced to trade with him in the pocket, then whats going to stop him from doing the same to an opponent who doesn't possess the power to knock him out with a single punch?

For Gutierrez to win Song is going to need to show him respect at the beginning of the fight and allow Gutierrez to work his way into it, with the leg kicks, and I just don't see Song providing him that opportunity. If the fight were not taking place in the smaller octagon that would be a different story because Song would have to contend with the footwork of Gutierrez but that additional obstacle just isn't there in the smaller apex cage.

 

[Guld]

What's going to prevent Song from showing Gutierrez absolutely no respect, walking him down and in doing so putting Gutierrez on his backfoot immediately, before inevitably clipping him in the pocket with his explosive power? If Song was willing to walk a power puncher like Marlon Moraes down, until Moraes was forced to trade with him in the pocket, then whats going to stop him from doing the same to an opponent who doesn't possess the power to knock him out with a single punch?

For Gutierrez to win Song is going to need to show him respect at the beginning of the fight and allow Gutierrez to work his way into it, with the leg kicks, and I just don't see Song providing him that opportunity. If the fight were not taking place in the smaller octagon that would be a different story because Song would have to contend with the footwork of Gutierrez but that additional obstacle just isn't there in the smaller apex cage.

Fair points.

I just figured that Gutierrez's footwork/movement would be enough for him to keep the distance because Song don't really rush forward, he has more of a slow march forward.
Which still might be enough to close the distance/overwhelm Gutierrez, but it might not be.

I know that the talent levels are different, but it could easily be similar to Gutierrez' last fight with Alateng. Same stance/posture, similar height/reach, same plodding movement.
Again, I think the key is that Song's power is all generated on that lead leg, and if that's being compromised or taken out from him as he swings he might seem far less effective.

EDIT: Gonna rewatch Munhoz vs Gutierrez ASAP

 

[Guld]

Finished the rewatch of Munhoz vs Gutierrez.
Munhoz definitely laid the blueprint to expose Gutierrez.
1. Very mobile, especially in the first round. Lots of hopping both to step out of range, and to close the distance. This helped a lot to prevent Gutierrez from controlling the distance.
2. Checked lots of leg kicks and threw his own. Overall Munhoz was still losing the kicking range game, but he did a good job of keeping his weight on the back leg and checking that front leg. He was still limping for a few moments but it would have been a lot worse if he didn't.
3. Used grappling when he could. Both of them ended up exhausted after the first because of this.
4. Landed an explosive counter in the first and just let his fists fly when it reached the boxing distance.

With all of that being said, aside from the knockdown in the first those other two rounds were razor close and you could actually make a case for Gutierrez winning either/both of them.
Song can definitely replicate Step #4, and I actually think that he might be able to have some decent success with #3. My concern is that I don't think he can do #1 or #2, and without those #3 and #4 become harder to achieve.

If Song does manage to consistently close the distance into boxing or clinch range (or full on grappling) then this fight is likely his for the taking, but if he can't I don't see things going well for him.
Maybe the smart/safest bet is a sprinkle bet on Song and a livebet when/if Gutierrez starts controlling the range and winning a round or two?

 

[Guld]

Smith seems washed, but he’s always been the same. he’s only 35 and Khalil is 33.

Smith has always been somewhat timid and defensive, so he can throw off that washed energy. I’m just going by a hunch that he knows when to utilize grappling to his advantage, i think he knows Khalil is weak there. I do see anthony having the ability to rnc or ground ctrl, i also dont see a wide striking gap. Smith has more methods to win , i like him here for those odds.

I really don't like Smith, but I agree with your read on this.

 

[Stat_Collector]

I really don't like Smith, but I agree with your read on this.

i'll probably end up passing since its a short camp.

 

[burge13]

Smith and Elliott I quite like still despite the short camps

 

[EndlessCritic]

elliott just took two rounds against mokaev. no way he should be even here, even on short notice.

 

[BigSteve]

elliott just took two rounds against mokaev. no way he should be even here, even on short notice.

Round 2 made no sense. Massive error by the judges. He was slammed and rocked on top of laying on his back the whole round. Round 1 fair enough if you count all his strikes from bottom. different fight though he will have the top time here