Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by EzFlyer, Nov 26, 2016.
No idea if real or fake, but that fight clearly was not fixed
Might as well. He was done in the UFC anyway
Makes sense. Zero urgency last night.
According to the guy who wrote bloodyelbows recap, Kyle Noke deserves 'big ups' for a 'valiant effort'
Sometimes I wonder if these people are even paying attention to the fights.....
agree, pretty clear r1 for hol and a close r2 where Matthews was defending most of the time
Even the striking was close, hoolbrock did a great job with his clinch work and dirty boxing, Matthews clearly didn't like that pressure
I was on Mathews and was completely fine with Holbrook winning the decision. I probably would've scored it for him too. You can't just let a guy roll for leg locks and sit there like an asshole thinking you're somehow winning
How I felt about Almeida/Morales U1.5 +120. I regret only putting 1u on that
With your boy in the avy Holloways moneyline at -155 vs Pettis, the next serious value play might be Holloway -5.5. If I can get that shit at even, omg will I hammer.
Exactly what I do. Nasty habit I've got to get out of.
First Tuck screwed all my parlays (that were all looking great) with his 'I don't care if I win or lose' performance, then I had Matthews in a load of banker doubles and trebles and he went out and did exactly the same. Then of course I chased with Brunson because most the experts on here were picking him to run through Whittaker. Yeah. 'orrible night.
I agree with this. i make some 5u plays when i am down and chasing...obv a bad habit. But what you are deacribing is a premeditated big play on what seems to be a good line. i try and have 2 or 3 big plays per card.. but not forcing anything.
My fave play coming in december is Aldana ML. She is a beast. Lets put our heads together and make bank over December. It has been a tough year for most of us it seems.
Noke sucks dick
Terrible night for me because Tuck was robbed. Gladly I had money on Holbrook (knew matthews way overrated) and came out with a small profit. Crazy night that was.
Noke "retires" LOL. He knew he would get cut anyway so he retired. Lmao I dont have to see this guys face anymore. He was clearly losing but had no urgency to finish Akhmedov.
i hit jake at around -250 which i think was decent value (not square as someone suggested). i still think he wins that fight 8/10 times.
in r2 holbrook was not close to completing any of those subs and jake landed the takedown and better strikes. oh well, shit happens it's the fight game.
i'm not averse to paying juice but wouldn't have hit jake at -500 where he ended up. i wish he opened at -500!
Same here, hit him at -250 and felt pretty good about it value wise.
No sense arguing about a fight that is over with.. But I disagree Matthews wins this 8/10 times. Holbrook is a seasoned wrestler and that is what we witnessed. Everyone was saying Holbrook sucks and he is slow etc.
Matthews is this high energy flashy prospect but lets not get carried away. I feel like Matthews is a bit like Sage (obv. better) coming in very young and gets tons of hype. However fighting a tough wrestler with xp on his side is no joke. If my memory is correct Holbrook was up to +400 before fight time.
If they fought again I would take Holbrook again at +400. Matthews never showed clear dominance in striking, grappling, or wrestling.
I LB Holbrook after r1 (IIRC) for 2u @ -115 and felt ok about it as I thought he won r1 or at least had Matthews frustrated.
PS. I am still so mad Tuck lost. That is what I really came here to complain about. It may sound weird but Tuck was my strongest lean of the card and one of my big plays. Who in the actual fuck is Damien Brown... After nearly winning the fight in r1 Tuck coasts to the L.
Mathews fight iq has always been so horrible. That's the big reason I'm kicking myself for thinking the same as you guys (value at -220 where I parlayed him) and why I'd agree with Lemon that Mathews doesn't win 8/10 times. In the Vick fight dude was clearly showing to be more skilled, and than ran into a knee and got choked. Many examples of dumb mistakes throughout his career. I mean, he almost got KOd by fucking Akbar Arreola. Shame on me for thinking something would magically change in this regard.
Some fighters just dont evolve and adapt after losing. I remember I was so hgih on Erick Silva after a few of his first round finishes. Somehow Erick never really got his shit together and devleoped good fight IQ even though he has great physical ability. I am still high on Matthews I just think he is priced too steep after some exciting wins.
Some fighters look so amazing when they get to dominate a fight. However, at the higher levels most fights end up being a grind because there is a narrow skill gap (if any). Matthews is one of those guys that looks like a god when he dominates but it is yet to be seen how he transitions into a grinder when he can't find a quick finish.
Matthews is good but he hasn't had a dominant win in a long time. In the Areola fight he nearly got finished with a head kick and he was actually on his way to losing a split decision before he submitted Johnny Case.
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