UFN 103: Rodriguez vs. Penn - Phoenix

[Ukram]

Well in the first round he went toe to toe with Diego before gassing, wasn't it his first time in mexico city and on short notice as well?

Good point. I forgot that this fight took place in mexico city. We could see much better held this time.

In regards to Held vs sanchez? I was checking that earlier about held but can't see anything about him being short notice, maybe it was just mexico and ufc debut or maybe that is just held being held. I need to do some more digging on held, its still hard to not favour joe though.

 

[Joseph Budden]

Lauzon is easily just as bad of a style matchup for Held as Diego was

 

[vkram]

From what I remember Held was doing pretty well in the striking with Diego but kept going for subs. Lauzon also isn't as good as good of a top grappler as Diego IMO, I might be wrong though.

 

[Ukram]

True they have certain props but not to the extent or the ones bet365 has. I also don't really like their system of not allowing bets when they are changing the odds (when the whole thing turns white). Sometimes it seems that's all they are doing during a fight and there is no room to actually place a bet.

Having said that they are still one of the better bookmakers when it comes to livebetting since they do offer certain props and also the possibility of livebetting during the entire fight as opposed to only between rounds.

Pretty much all the bookies do this during live betting, usually if someone is about to get taken down the line is cut or when a finish looks likely. I usually have 2-3 bookies open during live betting, so you have to keep an eye since some bookies keep the line open and others close it or close it much later.

For example ladbrokes left a live bet line wide open while unibet & paddy closed it. I hammered ladbrokes live betting naturally

 

[Joseph Budden]

From what I remember Held was doing pretty well in the striking with Diego but kept going for subs. Lauzon also isn't as good as good of a top grappler as Diego IMO, I might be wrong though.

First round was close but def Helds, and than Held gonna Held. He went all in on a gulliotine, it failed, and he fell apart as he's prone to do when he can't catch that early sub he always goes all in on.

Lauzon is going to outstrike him, out wrestle him, and just like Diego he's too good at jits to get caught.

I actually kind of regret not doing more than 2.2u at -110

 

[LEMONZEST]

Lauzon is still -135 right now on BM.

I am trying to be objective as I love a steep dog but man I just can't put any faith in Penn at this point.

He is 1-5 over the past few years and has not had a sub win since 09.

Yair is just not a good matchup for him. I also like the fact that Yair had a bit of a difficult and frustrating fight with Caceres and was forced to go all 5. I love Yair as a rising star in the UFC right now. Without watching tape my only real question mark on Yair is how good is his grappling and TDD?

thoughts?

JB what do you think about this one?

I am planning on just parlaying Yair's ML.

 

[Joseph Budden]

Lauzon is still -135 right now on BM.

I am trying to be objective as I love a steep dog but man I just can't put any faith in Penn at this point.

He is 1-5 over the past few years and has not had a sub win since 09.

Yair is just not a good matchup for him. I also like the fact that Yair had a bit of a difficult and frustrating fight with Caceres and was forced to go all 5. I love Yair as a rising star in the UFC right now. Without watching tape my only real question mark on Yair is how good is his grappling and TDD?

thoughts?

JB what do you think about this one?

I am planning on just parlaying Yair's ML.

Its scary cause I think a semblance of Penn could still be a tough stylistic matchup for Yair. Ultimately, i'll play Yair dec if the price is right (it will be based on the over) and I also like the over

 

[Ukram]

Lauzon is going to outstrike him, out wrestle him, and just like Diego he's too good at jits to get caught.

Trying to recall Lauzons wrestling and take downs though and not recalling much of it though, obviously amazing ji jitsu, transitions and ground game work though.

Sanchez had probably the better game plan and skill set against held also, good timed take downs and control on top and good enough defensive sub game, joe will probably be more happy to play striking and submission back and forth wars with held is my main worry.

Think I need to recap some joe tape before a parlay play or 2.

 

[Joseph Budden]

Trying to recall Lauzons wrestling and take downs though and not recalling much of it though, obviously amazing ji jitsu, transitions and ground game work though.

Sanchez had probably the better game plan and skill set against held also, good timed take downs and control on top and good enough defensive sub game, joe will probably be more happy to play striking and submission back and forth wars with held is my main worry.

Think I need to recap some joe tape before a parlay play or 2.

If Lauzon could take down Miller and do good work from on top, I have little doubts he can do the same to Held.

Yeah I think Lauzon will look to strike more, but i'm not worried. He'll light Held up in the clinch and at worst Held is even with Lauzon at range. I dare say Joe will even outbox him there. On the mat I have no doubts Joe is smarter than Held and will look for top postion before getting to work, especially after the Miller fight.

 

[Roads55]

bj/yair u2.5 is 2.1 on paddypower, and 1.9 on 365, gonna have to take the 365 price i think, i can't see it being that price on other books, once the line is more widespread.

 

[EzFlyer]

It could very well just be bad luck, but is there an overall theme to your split losses? Like most are against grapplers when you back a striker etc etc.

no theme

 

[Joseph Budden]

bj/yair u2.5 is 2.1 on paddypower, and 1.9 on 365, gonna have to take the 365 price i think, i can't see it being that price on other books, once the line is more widespread.

Why the under though? I'm surprised thats been getting played as hard as it has. Yair is not going to sub him, he doesn't hit super hard and BJ has always had an AMAZING chin.

 

[EzFlyer]

Did anyone else miss the alerts from bestfightodds for this card? I signed up for email alerts but didn't get them...

I've got my eye on 2-3 guys on the undercard and I don't wanna miss it.

I hope to get Rivera cheaper by then as well.

i got them

 

[EzFlyer]

First round was close but def Helds, and than Held gonna Held. He went all in on a gulliotine, it failed, and he fell apart as he's prone to do when he can't catch that early sub he always goes all in on.

Lauzon is going to outstrike him, out wrestle him, and just like Diego he's too good at jits to get caught.

I actually kind of regret not doing more than 2.2u at -110

rd 1 was not close whatsoever. but then held gassed.

 

[null]

I'm sure Marcin Held is improving, but if he goes with the same leg lock or bust strategy against Joe Lauzon as he did recently with Diego Sanchez, he's going to be in trouble again. Joe has been subbed a few times, but those were a long while ago. If Marcin tries to stand, he's going to get out boxed by Joe. I think the UFC should have put him against more middle of the pack competition at lightweight instead of these cagey veterans. I have to bet Joe pretty big at -135, especially since he looked good lately.

 

[Roads55]

Why the under though? I'm surprised thats been getting played as hard as it has. Yair is not going to sub him, he doesn't hit super hard and BJ has always had an AMAZING chin.

bj's 38,
bj hasn't fought in 2 1/2 years,
bj hasn't had a convincing win over a top opponent since he fought diego 7 years ago,
yair should have a big speed advantage,
bj's cardio is still questionable,
yair still improving,
bj has taken a lot of damage in his recent fights, on top of a long career, makes me wonder if his chin will crack.

but you make good points, need to watch tape before I pull the trigger. I'm more interested in the price right now for line movement, but still think the under hits as of now.

not sure I've ever wanted the fighter I'm probably going to bet against to win so much though, How epic would it be if BJ got the W...

 

[wack3d]

bj's 38,
bj hasn't fought in 2 1/2 years,
bj hasn't had a convincing win over a top opponent since he fought diego 7 years ago,
yair should have a big speed advantage,
bj's cardio is still questionable,
yair still improving,
bj has taken a lot of damage in his recent fights, on top of a long career, makes me wonder if his chin will crack.

but you make good points, need to watch tape before I pull the trigger. I'm more interested in the price right now for line movement, but still think the under hits as of now.

not sure I've ever wanted the fighter I'm probably going to bet against to win so much though, How epic would it be if BJ got the W...

on the other hand all the fighters BJ lost to would also beat Yair imo he has only faced the best fighters in the world while Yair has faced middle of the pack fighters.. also BJ is with jackson now and i think he has been training pretty hard there for about 10 month so you have to think he will come in with a solid gameplan and good cardio.

i am tempted to go for BJ for sure but will just be a small bet for me

 

[Sham5916910]

Yair has no ko power and bj is tough as hell like jb said. Yair relies on a low percentage move landing to give him much chance of a ko similar to hall. Yeah bj will be at a speed disadvantage but i think you are betting on yair landing something low percentage. I wouldnt take those odds.

Edit: yair only has two ko's. Win over fili was low percentage and his other ko win was flying knee. Do you think those odds are justified that yair lands a flying knee or something along those lines...

 

[Officer_Brown]

Yair vs Penn is dog or pass imo. I think it would be stupid to lay any unit on Yair at current odds. Penn has fought absolute killers his whole career. Now he gets someone who is barely top 10 and still very green. It just not worth it. If u wanna play juiced boi then play Rivera.

 

[Buddy Brown]

Yair vs Penn is dog or pass imo. I think it would be stupid to lay any unit on Yair at current odds. Penn has fought absolute killers his whole career. Now he gets someone who is barely top 10 and still very green. It just not worth it. If u wanna play juiced boi then play Rivera.

Not just green, but wreckless. BJ's BJJ skills haven't just disappeared. If this fight hits the floor and Yair fights the way he did against Hooker etc, he's getting subbed. I just have a gut feeling BJ can pull it off.