UFN 111 - Holm vs Correia - Singapore

[SBJJ]

This is true, but it kinda looks like he's lost some muscle mass to me. I could be wrong, but I'm going to tread cautiously until after the weigh ins.

Yea. Look at his traps. He looks shockingly different. Reminds me of Vitor.

If he's off the PEDs it could affect his cardio also

 

[Stunna77]

Not really. My capping could even be slightly off and the fighter only wins 30% of the time. That is still a profitable long term play

I guess my point is your capping, to be able to give out an exact percent chance of a fighter to win a fight, has to be damn good. In order to do that for every fight on every card, you would have to spend an immense amount of time watching tape. I HIGHLY doubt that most people on this forum have the time nor take the time to do so. I could see giving someone a range, say 25-35%, but to the exact percent, ya'll must have a lot of time on your hands or be extremely confident in your capping of a sport that doesn't have many trends/stats to help you out.

 

[SBJJ]

Damn. RDA got that David Hasselhoff body going on at the beach.

 

[Jae Gibbz]

Yea. Look at his traps. He looks shockingly different. Reminds me of Vitor.

If he's off the PEDs it could affect his cardio also

Speaking of traps. I did not bring it up in here, but was talking to a few friends about it. I though Luke Jumeau's traps looked pretty big, especially for a guy who works a full time job. With that said, maybe he works a very physical job that developed his traps

 

[quincy k]

I like RDA quite a bit here, but I checked out his IG after you posted this and man, you're right he doesn't look very good. He posted this in March:



I think I'll wait to see how he looks at the weigh-in before making any more plays on that fight.

rda claims to walk around at 200 pounds. that is not a 5'8" 200 pound man.

 

[Jae Gibbz]

I guess my point is your capping, to be able to give out an exact percent chance of a fighter to win a fight, has to be damn good. In order to do that for every fight on every card, you would have to spend an immense amount of time watching tape. I HIGHLY doubt that most people on this forum have the time nor take the time to do so. I could see giving someone a range, say 25-35%, but to the exact percent, ya'll must have a lot of time on your hands or be extremely confident in your capping of a sport that doesn't have many trends/stats to help you out.

This is probably one of the easiest sports out there to cap. There are plenty of successful long term bettors here that have been profiting by specifically capping fights

 

[TimCoreCombat]

I like RDA quite a bit here, but I checked out his IG after you posted this and man, you're right he doesn't look very good. He posted this in March:



I think I'll wait to see how he looks at the weigh-in before making any more plays on that fight.

I'm not playing RDA but I wouldn't worry about a picture from March. Most guys wouldn't even think of starting a weight cut until April and probably May unless they have a ton to go.

 

[weedreference]

i'll give you a reason: it'll be higher than +400 in a couple days, so do it then!

Really? I think action is more likely to come in on Sasaki. Scoggins doesn't exactly get "throw him in a parlay" respect from the market, especially at these odds. Kalikas is ultra-high on him, so he gets respect with the opening lines (and at -555, wow, he definitely overdid it this time).

 

[Stunna77]

This is probably one of the easiest sports out there to cap. There are plenty of successful long term bettors here that have been profiting by specifically capping fights

Maybe I am not vocalizing my point the way I think I am. I am saying I do not think you can cap a fighters chance to win to an exact percentage consistently enough to be able to bet 10/12 fights for "value" when there is a miniscule difference (5-8%) between your capping and the percentages based on odds. Or I guess even more to the point, I think there are better strategies. But yeah I've wasted way more time than I should have debating this haha so last post for me on this discussion.

 

[Jae Gibbz]

This isn't a response to anyone, but I had a conversation with a couple casino buddies trying to explain to them that long term > short term. All of the talk in here reminded me of it

Sure, anything can happen in the short term, but you should really be focusing on long-term results

Example 1: Somebody runs up to a slot machine and on their first reel they hit a small jackpot of say $10,000 (1000 units). That's fucking awesome, but extremely unlikely and a proven long-term losing play. I still wouldn't recommend playing slots.

Example 2: There's a fighter with -150 odds that you literally think has a 90% chance to win. You place a max bet. It loses. That fucking sucks, but in the long term that is a winning play. I would make that play every time

Example 3: There's a fighter with +300 odds that you think has a 33% chance to win. Sure, in the short term it might be a losing play especially if you're only going to do it exactly one time in your life, but over the long term that is actually a profitable play.

 

[Jae Gibbz]

Maybe I am not vocalizing my point the way I think I am. I am saying I do not think you can cap a fighters chance to win to an exact percentage consistently enough to be able to bet 10/12 fights for "value" when there is a miniscule difference (5-8%) between your capping and the percentages based on odds. Or I guess even more to the point, I think there are better strategies. But yeah I've wasted way more time than I should have debating this haha so last post for me on this discussion.

I don't know what else to say besides that it is a +ev play. Which is what you should be looking for even if it is a 5-8% difference between your capping and the percentage based on odds

 

[Oblivian]

Maybe I am not vocalizing my point the way I think I am. I am saying I do not think you can cap a fighters chance to win to an exact percentage consistently enough to be able to bet 10/12 fights for "value" when there is a miniscule difference (5-8%) between your capping and the percentages based on odds. Or I guess even more to the point, I think there are better strategies. But yeah I've wasted way more time than I should have debating this haha so last post for me on this discussion.

Your logic would apply the same to favorites then. I have no issue with that. You want a bigger edge than a lot of people do. Some people would take a 10% edge on a favorite (70% chance vs. 60% implied) but pass on a 15% chance on an underdog (30% chance vs. 15% implied). Some people simply won't play dogs if they don't think they'd win. I actually used to not play dogs unless I saw them having something close to 50%. I don't subscribe to that anymore though.

 

[MidgardSerpent]

Replace RDA with Cacares?


Holm
Walt
RDA
Scoggins

I was originally on RDA but a few things concerned me. He's never had the best chin and at a higher weight class that's a concern. Also, he seemed to get a bit comfortable with moving up in weight... look at his IG pics from a few months ago. Extremely soft. But, I need to throw in a risk/small favorite to make the parlay worthwhile to go along with the 3 locks.

A weak chin? Based on what? I'm just kind of baffled by how people hold fighters to impossible standards. RDA has had 34 fights, 1 loss by KO and 1 loss by TKO. The first one was a hellacious uppercut by Stephens, that would have most likely ko'd the majority of fighters in that weight-class. In the loss to Eddie he took a shit ton of flush shots and he still wasn't down, the fight was stopped by Dean. And besides that I cannot recall him ever being seriously rocked in any of his other fights. In the end it's a fist fight, almost everyone will get rocked or ko'd at some point in their carreer.

 

[Jamah]

4 days ago

 

[Kowboy Karl]

Fair enough. Personally, if I cap a fighter around 33% and he is +300, that is worth at least a 0.5u play for me. That is a long term, profitable play

I feel like it's a blend

There are plenty of value situations and there are plenty of fights you feel are locks. Seems like the popular phrase around here is parlay fodder on some of those type fights.

I did well on calling holm by lhk but really just the line was a great value. These lines get skewed excessively when a fighter his hyped has a huge win streak or a bunch of flashy ko wins.

Anthony pettis was my favorite. That cage showtime kick provided major value for dog betting when he went on his losing streak.

-350 -250 and -180
We're his lines for rda alvarez and barboza.

Then there were total fails like barao dillashaw -600 cuz he's invincible and hasn't lost in 10 years.

Or like rockhold -1000 over the count at openers I believe nobody gave bisping a chance.

I just almost as a rule never bet anyone -400 or over and any dogs for value better have a clear path to victory with a big wrestling edge or the favored fighter having a major liability like chin.

Hope these thoughts help

 

[trucido]

anyone betting covington>dhk or RDA>saff here.. the O2.5 is about the same price on both of them as the two favorites..

I'm on both, but I could easily see Colby finishing DHK, but I do think RDA will decision Tarec.

 

[EzFlyer]

Really? I think action is more likely to come in on Sasaki. Scoggins doesn't exactly get "throw him in a parlay" respect from the market, especially at these odds. Kalikas is ultra-high on him, so he gets respect with the opening lines (and at -555, wow, he definitely overdid it this time).

Just my 2c... He is alrdy +415 from that+400.. and juice hasn't shrunk yet...

 

[AmericanBeauty]

Tybura vs Arlovski
I like the over 1.5.
Definitly a stab worth.
I am currently on a win streak haha
Odds 1.90

 

[AmericanBeauty]

Small parlay
Holm/Correa under 4.5+Tybura/arlovski over 1.5 and covington 50 euro=281,50

 

[EzFlyer]

just nailed covington-DHK goes 3 -175