UFN 126 - Cowboy vs Medeiros - Austin

[Sham5916910]

That may well be true, I cant really say. How would you imagine him finishing Williams on the ground? Do you think he can be on top on the ground and maintain that position? Do you think his current price is worth a bet if even a small one?

Also isnt Williams bigger, taller and heavier, than Piechota? Who wins the game of strength and leverage?

Lima sprawled on a Williams shot on TUF and got an instant back take and choke. So that wouldn't surprise me. Pie's best sub is the brabo choke so i could see him hitting that off a failed shot. I know Wilson has no ground game but you could see in Pie's fight with him how high level Pie's ground game is. The body lock takedown into the back take in r1 was smooth as ice. This man beat Vinny Maghales and Calasans (choked Calasans out) in ADCC as a brown belt! And to answer your question if Pie gets on top yes I do imagine him completely dominating from top control. Don't count out Pie's power either. He one punched Radcliffe, dropped 14-2 Mattia with a left hook and finished with GnP that guys never been KO'd by anyone else. He also dropped Wilson i don't think Cutelaba even managed that. Wilson was possibly saved by the bell in each round too.

Williams is scrappy but nothing he does impresses me. He's been fighting cans, gassed horribly in his last fight, works ft and has been out a year. I guess he could get some wall and stall going but Pie will take over.

 

[mkess101]

Jones first fight back was against OSP, arguably his worst fight ever.

He was presumably using PED's again for DC 2, so that doesn't carry as much weight IMO

Yeah that's right. Jones/DC II was postponed due to DC injury, forgot that was the reason for it getting postponed.

 

[Gugabe]

Elkins would like to have a word with you.

Elkins is weird since he's arguably correctly rated in the lines, he's just great at somehow pulling out a split or a miracle comeback. If they made Bektic-Elkins 2, I can't imagine Bektic closing anywhere worse than -350

 

[Oblivian]

Elkins is weird since he's arguably correctly rated in the lines, he's just great at somehow pulling out a split or a miracle comeback. If they made Bektic-Elkins 2, I can't imagine Bektic closing anywhere worse than -350

5 of his last 8 wins have been as a dog though. At this point, it's a clear trend and people are understimating him. Trinaldo was an underdog 4 times in his last 8 wins. Splitting hairs at this point, but I still think Elkins is underestimated more.

 

[ADD]

Romero are also a favourite underdog, he have been a underdog in his last 7 fights and only lost one of them.

 

[piglord]

Southpaw. left hand. quick counter. Vicks defense is predicated on distance, when punches are thrown at him from punching range, or on a counter, his defense cracks.

this is the truth.

initially i was leaning with vick but after watching more tape i think trinaldo cracks him. trinaldo has good feigns and movement to help him navigate range and he's also got a really underrated sense of timing. he knows exactly where his weapons are in relation to his opponents defence - you can see some of opponents look fucking confused when they get cracked. he absolutely tooled paul felder on the feet and was soundly beating lee until the head kick.

because people remember him as being mediocre and due to his age, trinaldo gets underrated but the guy is a very good fighter. i think we're seeing the best of him as a result of him quitting full time work to focus on fighting a few years ago.

 

[lifeisgood12345]

this is the truth.

initially i was leaning with vick but after watching more tape i think trinaldo cracks him. trinaldo has good feigns and movement to help him navigate range and he's also got a really underrated sense of timing. he knows exactly where his weapons are in relation to his opponents defence - you can see some of opponents look fucking confused when they get cracked. he absolutely tooled paul felder on the feet and was soundly beating lee until the head kick.

because people remember him as being mediocre and due to his age, trinaldo gets underrated but the guy is a very good fighter. i think we're seeing the best of him as a result of him quitting full time work to focus on fighting a few years ago.

It's pretty hard to believe that out of nowhere the guy is a contender at age 39, but he has been killing it

His last 4 fights are all good performances vs good opponents:

--Dominant 30-25 of Yancy
--Solid r3 KO of Felder
--Great start vs Kevin Lee before getting caught with headkick
--Dominant decision vs Miller outside of minor early issues with Miller's wrestling

He's not just getting lucky-- he looked sharp in every one of these fights

Dariush is the closest thing to Trinaldo that Vick has fought, Medeiros is the closest thing to Vick that Trinaldo has fought.

Gotta be worried that Vick cracks his aging chin. Even Yancy scored a knockdown in the midst of getting annihilated, and I don't think Vick's defense has quite as many holes as Yancy. But man at +200 we are getting compensated as fuck for this worry. Haven't felt that an underdog has this much potential to run through their opponent since Rose vs JJ.

 

[Gugabe]

5 of his last 8 wins have been as a dog though. At this point, it's a clear trend and people are understimating him. Trinaldo was an underdog 4 times in his last 8 wins. Splitting hairs at this point, but I still think Elkins is underestimated more.

A dude can be winning as a dog without the lines being inaccurate. Sometimes a dude just pulls a good string of unlikely victories. I'm still kinda shocked how quickly MJ went to pieces on the ground in fking half-guard with him, though I made a bit on a random stab at him to beat Bektic and I put quite a bit on him against Skelly.

 

[Oblivian]

A dude can be winning as a dog without the lines being inaccurate. Sometimes a dude just pulls a good string of unlikely victories. I'm still kinda shocked how quickly MJ went to pieces on the ground in fking half-guard with him, though I made a bit on a random stab at him to beat Bektic and I put quite a bit on him against Skelly.

If your contention is that the lines were accurate, Elkins pulling off that string of 5 underdog victories at less than a 1% chance.

 

[lifeisgood12345]

If your contention is that the lines were accurate, Elkins pulling off that string of 5 underdog victories at less than a 1% chance.

There are hundreds of fighters in the UFC, somebody has to be the luckiest now that Bisping is donezo

And even if Elkins has been a bit underrated it's clear that he is more luck driven than Trinaldo who wins with pure skill

 

[Oblivian]

There are hundreds of fighters in the UFC, somebody has to be the luckiest now that Bisping is donezo

And even if Elkins has been a bit underrated it's clear that he is more luck driven than Trinaldo who wins with pure skill

Arguing between Elkins and Trinaldo is really splitting hairs. The responses here just show to me that Elkins is still underestimated. There is no way you can look at his 5 underdog wins and not think that some of those lines were off. Especially vs. Skelly. Very favorable matchup.

 

[chemmy]

There are hundreds of fighters in the UFC, somebody has to be the luckiest now that Bisping is donezo

And even if Elkins has been a bit underrated it's clear that he is more luck driven than Trinaldo who wins with pure skill

I think you are confusing grit, determination, chin and cardio for luck. They are often overlooked in this sport.

 

[lifeisgood12345]

Arguing between Elkins and Trinaldo is really splitting hairs. The responses here just show to me that Elkins is still underestimated. There is no way you can look at his 5 underdog wins and not think that some of those lines were off. Especially vs. Skelly. Very favorable matchup.

No it's not splitting hairs, the ability to discern this stuff makes or breaks you as a gambler.

Trinaldo is extremely skilled and after all of his wins he now is arguably more +EV than ever vs Vick.

Elkins may be a good fade in his next fight

 

[Oblivian]

I think you are confusing grit, determination, chin and cardio for luck. They are often overlooked in this sport.

And you can't discount his grappling either. His wrestling vs. Bermudez looked very good. It's not like Bermudez just gave up or gassed. I also think in the Johnson fight, we discounted old fights. Again, a problem with this forum. The Johnson that folded reminded me exactly how he looked vs. Jury and Madadi. Obviously that guy is still in there. You may just need to break him to have it come out.

 

[Gugabe]

I think you are confusing grit, determination, chin and cardio for luck. They are often overlooked in this sport.

He's also had some bizzare fight IQ go his way, like when Bermudez kept engaging in wrestling for no particular reason, and Bektic entirely blowing his load in that fight. I'm also kind of amazed by how Johnson mentally collapsed so spectacularly on the bottom against him.

Arguing between Elkins and Trinaldo is really splitting hairs. The responses here just show to me that Elkins is still underestimated. There is no way you can look at his 5 underdog wins and not think that some of those lines were off. Especially vs. Skelly. Very favorable matchup.

The odds on the Skelly and Bermudez fights were definitely off. I'd rate Elkins as a moderate favorite in a Skelly rematch, and like +130 in a Bermudez rematch. The Bektic line feels accurate to me on the basis of how hard Elkins got mauled there, it's one of the greatest comebacks in UFC history. The Johnson line probably didn't anticipate Johnson having such a mental collapse on the ground.

 

[jjwvic]

If you haven't heard by now there was a horrific shooting in Florida. Am devastated and my thoughts n prayers are with the families of the lost ones. Sherdoggers here know I hate talking politics in the betting thread, but this is the reality in America under a Trump presidency. It's about time we push for legislation for an all out gun ban. I would also plead with everyone reading this to call your congressman and congresswomen and tell them to put the safety of the public out of those who wish us harm i.e people toting guns and killing others. I put the blame entirely on one man: Donald J Trump! Impeachment must proceed swiftly and without delay.

This tragic event has really shook me to the core. At no time in my life have I felt less safe than I do right now living in America. I am going to provide FREE picks for UFC Fight Night Cerrone vs Medeiros with no expectations of receiving any likes. I will also be donating the profits I make from this card to any Gofundme campaigns aimed at getting rid of guns. Gun legislation is a must.

Please pray for Florida

- Barry

Gtfo of here with that political bull

 

[Gugabe]

And you can't discount his grappling either. His wrestling vs. Bermudez looked very good. It's not like Bermudez just gave up or gassed. I also think in the Johnson fight, we discounted old fights. Again, a problem with this forum. The Johnson that folded reminded me exactly how he looked vs. Jury and Madadi. Obviously that guy is still in there. You may just need to break him to have it come out.

Even against Madadi and Jury, he had to get into worse positions than closed half-guards before he folded like that. It's one of the more inexplicable chains of events in the UFC, especially coming from a dude who survived 2 rounds underneath Khabib and some time underneath Ferguson.

 

[Oblivian]

No it's not splitting hairs, the ability to discern this stuff makes or breaks you as a gambler.

Trinaldo is extremely skilled and after all of his wins he now is arguably more +EV than ever vs Vick.

Elkins may be a good fade in his next fight

Lol, you are really something. I'm surprised you are still here after insisting Rockhold was the right play and telling people they were dumbasses for betting Alvarez. That type of shit "makes or breaks you as a gambler". The way that you try to act like your opinion is always +EV is laughable too.

I'm on Trinaldo. Arguing who has been the better underdog over several fights between Elkins/Trinaldo is exactly what splitting hairs is. They have both been fantastic underdogs.

 

[Gugabe]

Lol, you are really something. I'm surprised you are still here after insisting Rockhold was the right play and telling people they were dumbasses for betting Alvarez. That type of shit "makes or breaks you as a gambler". The way that you try to act like your opinion is always +EV is laughable too.

I'm on Trinaldo. Arguing who has been the better underdog over several fights between Elkins/Trinaldo is exactly what splitting hairs is. They have both been fantastic underdogs.

I think the point's more that Trinaldo's been more of a 'dominant underdog', whilst Elkins has had quite a few clenchers. Trinaldo was clearly EV+ since he came out and murked dudes as a dog, whilst Elkins fights tend to have less of a sense of inevitability about them.

 

[lifeisgood12345]

Lol, you are really something. I'm surprised you are still here after insisting Rockhold was the right play and telling people they were dumbasses for betting Alvarez. That type of shit "makes or breaks you as a gambler". The way that you try to act like your opinion is always +EV is laughable too.

I'm on Trinaldo. Arguing who has been the better underdog over several fights between Elkins/Trinaldo is exactly what splitting hairs is. They have both been fantastic underdogs.

Who cares if I have been wrong before? You guys are wrong all the time. I am still learning MMA, definitely not as good at betting it as I am at basketball yet. Most of my opinions are +EV but I have my share of mistakes that I will weed out with more experience.

But the more important point is I understand what goes into being a winning bettor who does this for a living instead of working a job, and discerning whether past results are luck or skill is a HUGE part of it. If you say "it's splitting hairs they both win" and can't differentiate between the reliability in their paths to victory, that's why you aren't a pro gambler.

Elkins is good to some extent but man he could so easily have a couple of extra L's on his record.