I just finished watching tape on Andre Fili and Michael Johnson.
I'm more or less in 100% agree with you. Fili landed some really good single and double takedowns against Bermudez off leg kicks, his timing was really good. I do think he lands some takedowns against Johnson but the problem is he doesn't do anything with his takedowns, he doesn't have good top control or look to take their backs or use takedowns to set up submissions, he only does it to score points, so as a result his opponents get up quick. I think Fili is a blue belt in ji jitsu and he doesn't have any submission wins in the UFC and it shows in his ground game. I think he has one or two submissions pre UFC.
On the feet, Johnson has a clear advantage, cleaner striker with quicker hand speed and Johnson is a southpaw, so Fili won't be able to use his switch stance to southpaw to land his one two followed by the bodykick in the southpaw stance. They both have essentially the same reach (Johnson 73.5' inch reach and Fili 74' inch reach). The thing that would concern me as a Fili bettor is Bermudez who was at a 8' inch reach disadvantage in the Fili fight was landing a lot on the feet and Johnson has a lot quicker hand speed and same reach and way better striker than Bermudez. If Fili didn't land the takedowns against Bermudez, he loses that fight. In the Calvin Kattar fight, Fili was only having success in the southpaw stance, once he went orthodox, he was getting outstruck, same thing will happen in the Johnson fight.
The only way Johnson loses is if he gets taken down and submitted but Fili doesn't have good top control like you mentioned and Johnson should be able to get up and Fili doesn't have the submission skills to get a submission.
It's just hard laying juice on Johnson, but it's a favourable fight for him that he should win.