UFN 135 - Gaethje vs. Vick - Lincoln, NE

rev0lver said:
I'm actually getting kinda confident on Iuri pulling out a win here. Sandhagen has great, tricky standup. But Iuri kinda likes that, and I know he's getting older but you have to consider Iuri has never been knocked out in his 45-fight career.

Sandhagen started to gas pretty hard in the Arnett fight and that's super concerning to me. Arnett is a fighter he should have NO business losing to, and if it wasn't for a well-placed body shot he probably would've lost that fight. Arnett easily took his back and was gaining a heavy striking advantage. I'm pretty sure this is Sandhagen's BW debut too? The extra weight cut won't help that.

I can absolutely see this going like the Iuri-Kelleher fight, but imo there's more value on Iuri here than there seemed initially
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Did we watch the same fight? Sandhagan crushed Arnett, and was not slowing down at all. There was no chance for Arnett to come back and win that fight.
 
BatBoyJG said:
Did we watch the same fight? Sandhagan crushed Arnett, and was not slowing down at all. There was no chance for Arnett to come back and win that fight.
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Had to rewatch that second round just because of that. No idea what he's talking about, Arnett got his back for 5 seconds, Sanhagen shook him off and got top control, then completely fucked him up once they got back to their feet. His output barely dropped, don't know how you can say he was gassing hard beside some deep breathing during the post fight interview in the cage
 
BatBoyJG said:
Did we watch the same fight? Sandhagan crushed Arnett, and was not slowing down at all. There was no chance for Arnett to come back and win that fight.
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Yeah watching it again I think I was exaggerating Arnett finding advantages a little bit. But Sandhagen was absolutely slowing a minute and a half into rd 2. He started breathing with his mouth open pretty quickly and he looked 2x slower after the smallest amount of grappling. Letting Arnett take his back on the feet with hardly any resistance is still concerning too.
 
Caicara said:
I really love Sanders as a dog. Yahya is a one trick pony, Sanders is now more experienced after that Iuri loss and should take the safe route.

I'm even kinda confident.
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Maia was a one trick pony for a long time that only the elite guys could solve.

After watching tape, I think a pre-fight bet on Sanders makes no sense. Rani is a beast to deal with in rd 1 when he's fresh. He's relentless in trying to get it to the mat, and if he does (likely imo) Sanders will be overmatched.

I think it makes way more sense if you like Sanders to live bet after rd 1 where there's a good chance you are looking at +200ish if Yahya controls him with grappling for the first 5 minutes which he often does in his fights.
 
mkess101 said:
Maia was a one trick pony for a long time that only the elite guys could solve.

After watching tape, I think a pre-fight bet on Sanders makes no sense. Rani is a beast to deal with in rd 1 when he's fresh. He's relentless in trying to get it to the mat, and if he does (likely imo) Sanders will be overmatched.

I think it makes way more sense if you like Sanders to live bet after rd 1 where there's a good chance you are looking at +200ish if Yahya controls him with grappling for the first 5 minutes which he often does in his fights.
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K-1 Yahya might very well hold his own on the feet even if he doesn't get Luke down right away and keep him there. I'm kind of expecting a Yahya sub in round 1 or 2, but I don't think it's as simple as sub or bust.
 
still not quite a circle jerk yet, tough card..I know a lot of love for Hill but I'm on Casey, I see her eventually tagging her on the feet, then getting the TKO on the ground, just my opinion though
 
JimGunn said:
K-1 Yahya might very well hold his own on the feet even if he doesn't get Luke down right away and keep him there. I'm kind of expecting a Yahya sub in round 1 or 2, but I don't think it's as simple as sub or bust.
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personally i think rani is going to get KTFO if there are prolonged exchanges on the feet.
 
I think Rani is gonna only use his striking a little to close distance and take Sanders down. From there he's pretty damn suffocating. Luke isn't gonna want any part of Rani there, even from top position if Rani is fresh.

Which means Rani can use every imaginable way in try to get the fight to the mat. Even if he ends up on bottom, Like probably just tries to disengage and stand back up. And then Rani can try again. Main concern is still Rani expending too much energy early though.
 
Interesting statement by Tuck. 4:58 he says he's planning for a certain submission. Might be planning a more grappling-heavy game than he usually goes for.

 
Anybody else finding this card to be a pain to find action on? I usually like to go 20u or so deep a card, and I've barely got 6u worth of plays. Majority of which was my bookie fucking up.
 
Gugabe said:
Anybody else finding this card to be a pain to find action on? I usually like to go 20u or so deep a card, and I've barely got 6u worth of plays. Majority of which was my bookie fucking up.
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Yea I am feeling the same way. I have only a few fights I have action on. Many fights are just close and hard to get a read on.
 
Gugabe said:
Anybody else finding this card to be a pain to find action on? I usually like to go 20u or so deep a card, and I've barely got 6u worth of plays. Majority of which was my bookie fucking up.
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Nope, I have a lot of action already. There's a few of the more lopsided fights that I am waiting on totals but there are quite a few close lines here and I like several sides a lot.
 
It seems like the most common picks here have big risks with them. Sanchez+Yahya have gas problems. Gaethje is KO or get KO'd. Hill can be inconsistent. I think Fig around -150 is the best line of the card, personally. It's hard to find real confidence on something that isn't too juiced here.
 
I can see Gaethje giving up his neck while reckless pushing forward/looking for a takedown. And Vick (as much as I hate him) has a really good guillotine.
 
In relation to all the other odds on the fight, Barbarena KO at -110 has terrific value. If you think Jake is shot like he may well be, you are getting a monster discount off Barb's insanely juiced ML (which is at -4xx). Sub is pretty unlikely so paying double the juice for Barb itd is foolish right now too (currently -215 I think).

If you don't think Jake is done then obviously Jake's ML is the play but if you do then getting Barb KO at this price has nice value.
 
I'm jumping off the Casey train I was initially on. She is horrible. No takedown game against the wall but that is how you can beat Hill. She is slower and has less volume than Hill. Only success I see Casey having is if she can cut of Hill and push her against the wall. Hopefully judges see that bs
 
Danis_champ said:
I'm jumping off the Casey train I was initially on. She is horrible. No takedown game against the wall but that is how you can beat Hill. She is slower and has less volume than Hill. Only success I see Casey having is if she can cut of Hill and push her against the wall. Hopefully judges see that bs
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She has the fight IQ of a brick. Her tactics in the waterson fight were unforgivable. Really one of the absolute dumbest I've seen in a long time.
 
GrantSorenson said:
She has the fight IQ of a brick. Her tactics in the waterson fight were unforgivable. Really one of the absolute dumbest I've seen in a long time.
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And...she's slow. Hill is gonna look like Mighty Mouse compared to Courtney.
 
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