UFN 140 Ponzinibbio vs Magny

[GrantSorenson]

How come the lines always move on the guys that Sherdog hypes? Something is sketchy as I don't recall any big whales (big enough to make a difference on the money movement) on this board. Lurkers?

There are pro gamblers out there who make a living off this stuff and move the lines with their plays. I'm talking well into 5 figure sums

 

[Bestonian]

Why is Powell such an underdog vs a literal who, some Muay Thay boxer who's previous opponents barely have winning records. Watched some tape, not a bad kid but a huuuuuuge step up in competition vs Powell. Good value.

 

[Danis_champ]

Why is Powell such an underdog vs a literal who, some Muay Thay boxer who's previous opponents barely have winning records. Watched some tape, not a bad kid but a huuuuuuge step up in competition vs Powell. Good value.

Because you clearly haven't seen powell fight.. honestly I would bet Cyborg Justino if she fights Powell

 

[t6p]

True but imo still less likely than a tko considering those TAM guys (dont care what they're called now itll always be TAM to me lol) love a good guillotine.

Also fun fact, Lamas is 0-3 vs tam iirc. Emmett, Mendes, Castillo.

Yup I noticed that too and all three were by KO/TKO. Not sure how much of a factor it is, if at all, but it definitely doesn't give you the best feeling when your paying -2xx for a guy.

 

[raketmannen]

How come the lines always move on the guys that Sherdog hypes? Something is sketchy as I don't recall any big whales (big enough to make a difference on the money movement) on this board. Lurkers?

Early after the lines been released you can move them over 5 cents with a $100-200 bet, dosen't take a whale to change the lines significantly

 

[thewiggo]

Why is Powell such an underdog vs a literal who, some Muay Thay boxer who's previous opponents barely have winning records. Watched some tape, not a bad kid but a huuuuuuge step up in competition vs Powell. Good value.

Powell does not look like he belongs in the UFC thats why.
Hes got a record full of cans too.
Pinedo gunna bust this boy up.

 

[GoldenWolf87]

Powell does not look like he belongs in the UFC thats why.
Hes got a record full of cans too.
Pinedo gunna bust this boy up.

I am going to go with the underdog and the fact Powell is coming off a TKO win in July Pinedo's only chance of winning is Sub. But Powell has lot of more chances to win.

 

[chemmy]

I am going to go with the underdog and the fact Powell is coming off a TKO win in July Pinedo's only chance of winning is Sub. But Powell has lot of more chances to win.

What leads you to believe that Pinedo’s only chance to win is by sub?

 

[Card]

Santiago Ponzinibbio - https://www.bjpenn.com/mma-news/exc...il-magny-will-prove-hes-ready-for-title-shot/

“I am recovered 100%. I feel good. My health is good.” (hand injury that required surgery)
“For my career, for my victories, he is a big name, He beat two ex-champs.”
“A little bit striking, a little bit grapple. He’s good in everything.
“When I go to the cage I go to finish and also [execute] my strategy and that’s it, man. I’ll take this victory.”
"I am better than him, and I will finish this guy, man.”
“I am ready for the belt. I just, I need the opportunity.”
“This year was crazy,” “I never had an injury [before], but, you know, I had an injury in the start of the year and after that when I felt ready for August, September, I then talked with UFC and UFC say to me ‘no, I need to wait until November for Argentina.'”

 

[chemmy]

How come the lines always move on the guys that Sherdog hypes? Something is sketchy as I don't recall any big whales (big enough to make a difference on the money movement) on this board. Lurkers?

Not everybody on here talks about the amounts they bet. Plus it’s not always dollar amounts that move lines. Some sportsbooks eye up bettors who consistently beat line movement week after week and mark them as “sharp”. In that case lines can quickly change disproportionately to betting amounts, even with just a few hundred wagered. There are definitely some big bettors who use this knowledge to their advantage to manipulate line movement in one direction with insignificant bet amounts only to come in on the other side at a different book / account with a MUCH larger bet at a more favourable price.

 

[GoldenWolf87]

Anyone have anything on Dos Santos? any tapes? its hard to find about him.

 

[Wiktoruspro]

did you wait until he went to - money before making this post?

I just watched his fight

 

[Lightbringer]

Powell does not look like he belongs in the UFC thats why.
Hes got a record full of cans too.
Pinedo gunna bust this boy up.

Powell is not very great but Pinedo is by no means a world beater and Powell has the cardio edge. This fight will be very competitive.

 

[thewiggo]

Powell is not very great but Pinedo is by no means a world beater and Powell has the cardio edge. This fight will be very competitive.

I dont think so. Powell will not land any damaging shots.
Will be Pinedo early finish imo. Will be playing KO prop for Rd1 and Rd2.

 

[thewiggo]

I am going to go with the underdog and the fact Powell is coming off a TKO win in July Pinedo's only chance of winning is Sub. But Powell has lot of more chances to win.

Herrera got caught by a nasty liver shot.. shit like that happens. Devin does not look confident in his striking at all - always does this annoying twist thing after a kick where he seems to lose his balance.
Although i see Pinedo getting a TKO more often than not, I also see Devin getting guillotined from a failed td shot.

Line will get wider before the fight once more people watch tape.

 

[Lightbringer]

Herrera got caught by a nasty liver shot.. shit like that happens. Devin does not look confident in his striking at all - always does this annoying twist thing after a kick where he seems to lose his balance.
Although i see Pinedo getting a TKO more often than not, I also see Devin getting guillotined from a failed td shot.

Line will get wider before the fight once more people watch tape.

Jesus has a bunch of first round finishes vs awful competition. He has lost many decisions and has looked very bad in the second and third rounds. Powell is not very good but he has never been finished, is extremely durable, and could absolutely put Pinedo in bad spots in the later rounds.

Can Pinedo win? Sure. But He will absolutely be in for a close fight if he doesn't get a quick finish.

 

[Card]

 

[mowwww]

I'm surprised odds didn't correct much on Magni yet. Is it really this much of a dog against Ponzi?

 

[zeckdo]

Anyone have anything on Dos Santos? any tapes? its hard to find about him.

there's a few titan fc fights on fight pass. he's well rounded but not really good at one discipline. had a nice comeback win against Ricky Simon. got his neck snatched by Said Nurmagomedov. all of his losses are to guys with good records. He seems UFC ready but Narimani is going to be a tough test. Unless Dos Santos can pull off a crazy reversal or sweep and get a sub like he did against Simon, I see Nad winning a boring grappling heavy decision.

 

[Card]

Adam Martin - https://mmaoddsbreaker.com/news/13657-ufc-fight-night-140-opening-odds-reactions

- The oddsmakers completely misjudged the Magny vs. Ponzinibbio opening line. It should be a competitive fight, but Magny should have never opened up as such a sizeable favorite, and the line has completely flipped now with Ponzinibbio sitting around -320 in shops with Magny around +260. Ponziibbio is on fire right now with six straight wins and he will be getting to main event a card in his home country of Argentina. You know he will be fired up for that. Magny has won two fights in a row and has looked solid in the UFC, but he does have a chin that can be cracked and Ponzinibbio is a tremendous striker. I think the odds are a bit too high in Ponzinibbio's favor, though I do favor him to win. I just am worried if the fight goes to the fourth and fifth round that he burns himself out and Magny takes over. If Magny gets up to +350 maybe there's a play to be made, but right now I'm not tempted enough.

- On the other hand, I am tempted by the dog in the Lamas vs. Elkins fight. I think this should be a really close fight between two well-rounded featherweights, but Elkins has looked better as of late and appears to have found a second wind training at Team Alpha Male. Lamas is 36 years old and his chin has not looked great lately. Elkins is one of the toughest competitors in the business and is hard to put away. We've seen Elkins win countless fights as an underdog in the UFC, and this might just be another one.

- Another dog I have my eye on is Fabinski, who takes on Prazeres in a battle between welterweight grinders. Prazeres is on a seven-fight win streak and has looked great in the UFC, but he is pretty undersized for welterweight and he's 37 years old. Fabinski has won seven straight fights himself including three in the UFC. He's the bigger fighter in this bout, and considering the style matchup, I think there's really good value on the Polish grappler, who is one of the most underrated welterweights in the UFC.

- There's a lot of fights featuring solid favorites that should pick up the win, but the one I'm most confident in is Pantoja to beat Sasaki. I just don't think you can trust Sasaki in this spot. Yes, he's picked up some impressive submissions in the UFC, but he's extremely inconsistent and Pantoja matches up better against him than a lot of the guys he beat. I think Pantoja wins this one easy.