UFN 141 Blaydes vs Ngannou II

[PolarBearPaulVarelans]

you can go by the kelly criterion or the polar bear criterion.

You seem to get pretty annoyed by anyone who challenges your plays and there amounts

Pure projection. You're the one getting annoyed that I don't immediately respect your sage advice with its horrid reasoning. I've been reasonably cordial, though, whereas here you are crying about my perceived tone.

How much of your bankroll did you risk on bohtelo again? And how did that work out for you?

You could literally find the answer to this question by looking at the topic. I risked 3.67u on Botelho to win and another 1.4u for her to finish inside the distance.

No surprise that someone whose thinking is as lazy as yours is lazy in general, though.

Incidentally, I also risked an insane 25 units on Mandel Nallo to beat Carrington Banks at +105. Worked out pretty well for me.

Are you really comparing lines from 10 years ago to today?

You don't understand the point of those numbers and their relevance, do you? Yet you have the audacity to lecture others.

Those lines show that Chuck Liddell has, from the downside of his career all the way up until retirement, been consistently overrated by the gambling public. So him opening at +160 continuing to drop to +230 is nowhere near the red flag you think it is.

If anything, it's heartening; usually Liddell begins as an unreasonable favorite, and it gets even worse.

I remember having my most life-and-death arguments with people who though Liddell would easily KO Rampage in a rematch, and even now, glancing at the other Sherdog forums, you can find plenty of folks who think he wins his third fight against Tito, anyways.

You're thinking of all sorts of crazy explanations for the line movement when the reality is quite simple.

And yea I’d rather risk way less to win the same amount on a legit matchup in the ufc vs a golden boy mma match in Inglewood California between two guys in their late 40s

Tito is 43, not in his "late 40s". Again, as if we needed further confirmation that you're a lazy thinker who likes talking out of his ass.

Schevchenko has never had power.

No one claimed othewise. The fight is almost certainly going to decision.

She is counter striker. Johanna is a high output pressure fighter who has only lost 2 times in wmma, to the same girl. And the first loss was mostly due to a bad weight cut. The second fight she was starting to take over after she got her confidence

THIS is your level of reasoning? Not only is it fuzzy nonsense about "confidence" and "only lost 2 times in WMMA", but you're not even being honest with yourself about what happened in the two fights and why.

Have fun betting on Joanna, I guess. Sorry I tried to reason with you.

Betting huge on low level wmma matches and golden boy retirement home fights is not +ev, no matter which way you slice it

I've made a hefty profit on low level WMMA matches (Benardo-Moras and Barber-Cifers both worked out very well, and de Randamie-Pennington if that counts), even with the setback in Botelho versus Calvillo.

 

[Kyle Stephens]

I'm comfortable betting on Overeem.

Schevchenko has never had power. She is counter striker. Johanna is a high output pressure fighter who has only lost 2 times in wmma, to the same girl. And the first loss was mostly due to a bad weight cut. The second fight she was starting to take over after she got her confidence
Yea I’ll take the +280, thx. +ev moves

But she is freaking fast, man! She always, ALWAYS goes for the clinch if she has half the chance to do it. And that is why she has only a few knockouts. Most are subs and decisions because she takes bitches down and goes for the sub, or stalls the fight out with some combination of distance striking and clinchwork. If you watch her punches and kicks are blinding fast. If she want she can be a knockout artist, in this shitty 125 division she can make them feel the heat.
I promise I won't write more for this fight, it's not time yet. Just very interesting fight and I really want Joanna to win.

 

[ill800]

But she is freaking fast, man! She always, ALWAYS goes for the clinch if she has half the chance to do it. And that is why she has only a few knockouts. Most are subs and decisions because she takes bitches down and goes for the sub, or stalls the fight out with some combination of distance striking and clinchwork. If you watch her punches and kicks are blinding fast. If she want she can be a knockout artist, in this shitty 125 division she can make them feel the heat.
I promise I won't write more for this fight, it's not time yet. Just very interesting fight and I really want Joanna to win.

These are my two favorite female fighters

Johanna has excellent tdd, and she is excellent in the clinch. I wouldn’t say schevchenko will be able to do much of anything in these areas.

So that leaves us with striking. As I mentioned before, Johanna is a high output pressure fighter and schevchenko is a counter puncher who does not pack big power.

So you have a 5rd fight which could basically end up being decided by octagon control and who is the busier more effective striker.

I’d say at +250-280, Johanna is a pretty good play

 

[ill800]

Pure projection. You're the one getting annoyed that I don't immediately respect your sage advice with its horrid reasoning. I've been reasonably cordial, though, whereas here you are crying about my perceived tone.



You could literally find the answer to this question by looking at the topic. I risked 3.67u on Botelho to win and another 1.4u for her to finish inside the distance.

No surprise that someone whose thinking is as lazy as yours is lazy in general, though.

Incidentally, I also risked an insane 25 units on Mandel Nallo to beat Carrington Banks at +105. Worked out pretty well for me.



You don't understand the point of those numbers and their relevance, do you? Yet you have the audacity to lecture others.

Those lines show that Chuck Liddell has, from the downside of his career all the way up until retirement, been consistently overrated by the gambling public. So him opening at +160 continuing to drop to +230 is nowhere near the red flag you think it is.

If anything, it's heartening; usually Liddell begins as an unreasonable favorite, and it gets even worse.

I remember having my most life-and-death arguments with people who though Liddell would easily KO Rampage in a rematch, and even now, glancing at the other Sherdog forums, you can find plenty of folks who think he wins his third fight against Tito, anyways.

You're thinking of all sorts of crazy explanations for the line movement when the reality is quite simple.



Tito is 43, not in his "late 40s". Again, as if we needed further confirmation that you're a lazy thinker who likes talking out of his ass.



No one claimed othewise. The fight is almost certainly going to decision.



THIS is your level of reasoning? Not only is it fuzzy nonsense about "confidence" and "only lost 2 times in WMMA", but you're not even being honest with yourself about what happened in the two fights and why.

Have fun betting on Joanna, I guess. Sorry I tried to reason with you.



I've made a hefty profit on low level WMMA matches (Benardo-Moras and Barber-Cifers both worked out very well, and de Randamie-Pennington if that counts), even with the setback in Botelho versus Calvillo.

Projection? I could care less what you think about me. I also don’t care enough to go back through an old thread to see how much you risked on bohtelo.

I watched you do the same thing with bohtelo in the last fight thread with Kyle. It went on and on. Now you’re doing it again

There’s no doubt about it, you get your feelings hurt quite easily. You’re resorting to name calling and nitpicking. Oh sorry Tito is 43. Yea he’s a spring chicken. How lazy of me

How dare anyone question the polar bear.
We should all use the polar bear criterion and risk large chunks of our bankroll on single fights

All I did was advise against risking 12units, and on Tito Ortiz in a golden boy promotion for that matter. The last two ggg fights were fixed. Alvarez is the golden goose.

This is a betting forum where we’re supposed to be helping each other out

I don’t need to get in pissing contests about how many units I’ve made and who ive bet on.

You want to risk 12 units on a single fight? Great. Sorry I questioned you your excellency

Anyhow I’ve derailed this thread enough.
That will be it out of me

 

[MMAOracle]

shoot bro. well here is my two cent. I advise betting anything over 4u. I made a fooking dumb mistake by betting way over 4u on botehlo just because of cavilillo's horrendous weigh in. I have no idea what got over me. But at the end of the day, its your money ya know. All the money I lost so far, it was all due to "gut" instinct.

In the case of polar, he made a 12u bet on a fight that would most likely go his way. He is a high risk taker and a true gambler. But, ya know, as he claims his bankroll is only 1% of his asset. So that 12u does not mean too much for him.

 

[PolarBearPaulVarelans]

Projection? I could care less what you think about me. I also don’t care enough to go back through an old thread to see how much you risked on bohtelo.

I watched you do the same thing with bohtelo in the last fight thread with Kyle. It went on and on. Now you’re doing it again

There’s no doubt about it, you get your feelings hurt quite easily. You’re resorting to name calling and nitpicking. Oh sorry Tito is 43. Yea he’s a spring chicken. How lazy of me

How dare anyone question the polar bear.
We should all use the polar bear criterion and risk large chunks of our bankroll on single fights

All I did was advise against risking 12units, and on Tito Ortiz in a golden boy promotion for that matter. The last two ggg fights were fixed. Alvarez is the golden goose.

This is a betting forum where we’re supposed to be helping each other out

I don’t need to get in pissing contests about how many units I’ve made and who ive bet on.

You want to risk 12 units on a single fight? Great. Sorry I questioned you your excellency

Anyhow I’ve derailed this thread enough.
That will be it out of me

This post is embarrassing. I suggest deleting it. We all make mistakes or overlook variables in our analysis, but that's not a reason to throw out incoherent nonsense about the fight being fixed for Liddell, and then get butthurt when some of your factually wrong statements (believing Tito was in his late 40s) gets called out.

I do find it funny that in your Alvarez-GGG comparison, you're actually arguing for the fight being fixed for TITO, a Hispanic fighter who can potentially compete several more times for Golden Boy Promotions.

 

[PolarBearPaulVarelans]

But, ya know, as he claims his bankroll is only 1% of his asset.

Less than 1%, even. And I agonize over losing the smallest amounts; even $50 feels bad. But I'm also a mathematician by education who trusts his reads. If I think a line is completely out of wack and I have a major read on it, I would rather bet big once than spread that same money around on 4 fights where I have much worse reads and confidence on 3 of them.

My biggest regrets over the past month aren't my losses, but not having bet more when I had really strong reads.

 

[GrantSorenson]

shoot bro. well here is my two cent. I advise betting anything over 4u. I made a fooking dumb mistake by betting way over 4u on botehlo just because of cavilillo's horrendous weigh in. I have no idea what got over me. But at the end of the day, its your money ya know. All the money I lost so far, it was all due to "gut" instinct.

In the case of polar, he made a 12u bet on a fight that would most likely go his way. He is a high risk taker and a true gambler. But, ya know, as he claims his bankroll is only 1% of his asset. So that 12u does not mean too much for him.

Same thing happened to me a few times. For whatever reason, you feel strongly about a bet and put more units on it than usual and it wipes out some of those valuable units that you built up through consistent value bets. I just bet to level stakes now 95% of the time. Every bet I put on is usually the same stake - 1u. I will, in very very rare cases go above that if I feel very strongly but the way I play it, I try to make every play a value play. That way I feel like every bet I put on is a good bet and +EV. Makes sense to just flat bet with a single unit. I would imagine most on here can be profitable but its the big bets where you feel strongly like the one you did on Botelho, that have eaten into profit too much. Only problem with this style is holding back when you want to load up (e.g Usyk by KO vs Bellew). I won but not putting more units on felt like I lost money.

 

[Kyle Stephens]

Betting a lot of units per event is dangerous on two levels:
Level 1. You expose yourself too much
Level 2. If you lose, you'll lose a lot. And it's normal reaction to get mad. This leads to lose control and to start chasing the loss betting even more irresponsibly

Betting small is more of a mental trick to me, to not get too wild after a loss and wipe out my entire bankroll with crazy bets.

 

[raketmannen]

I still don't really get the Matthews fight. Still doesn't really make sense. Matthews showed massive improvement and looked huge. Leech was taking flush right hands and got dropped hard in every round from what I remember.

Yeah that was a shock to me. 4 months earlier he just edged out a lackluster decision against Velickovic, which I think he actually lost. Then he comes in like a completely different fighter and had put on like 10 pounds of muscle in that time, really took me by suprise.

 

[raketmannen]

Betting a lot of units per event is dangerous on two levels:
Level 1. You expose yourself too much
Level 2. If you lose, you'll lose a lot. And it's normal reaction to get mad. This leads to lose control and to start chasing the loss betting even more irresponsibly

Betting small is more of a mental trick to me, to not get too wild after a loss and wipe out my entire bankroll with crazy bets.

But also if you win, you win a lot. I like to think of every fight as a different entity, if there's 10 spots you find value in on an event, I don't see why you should hold back on betting a fight just because you went big on the prior fight or if you already have a lot locked up on the main event etc.
If you start chasing hard later on in the night because you are down on fights that you had not intended on betting in the first place, that's a recipe for distaster and you can't let your emotions take over in those scenarios.

 

[GrantSorenson]

Yeah that was a shock to me. 4 months earlier he just edged out a lackluster decision against Velickovic, which I think he actually lost. Then he comes in like a completely different fighter and had put on like 10 pounds of muscle in that time, really took me by suprise.

It's one of the most improved performances I've seen. The Bojan fight was his first at 170 too. Guy looked like a tank and at one point was screaming at Jingliang for a war. He should have finished the fight in the 2nd too if not for blatant cheating.

 

[GrantSorenson]

But also if you win, you win a lot. I like to think of every fight as a different entity, if there's 10 spots you find value in on an event, I don't see why you should hold back on betting a fight just because you went big on the prior fight or if you already have a lot locked up on the main event etc.
If you start chasing hard later on in the night because you are down on fights you had not intended on betting in the first place, that's a recipe for distaster and you can't let your emotions take over in those scenarios.

That's why I put all my bets on before the events and don't put any bets on on the night itself. We are only human and have to know our weaknesses. I have had rollercoaster rides betting on fight nights whereas if I just put my bets on beforehand and sometimes not even watch the fights, I'm good. Even if I end up down a couple of units. I think a large percentage of us on can make money from prefight bets long term. There are a ton of opportunities live betting, especially if you know a guy is a slow starter. Sometimes you can see a fight is going to a decision also. For me I just stick to pre fight bets and that's it. I've blown banks chasing on fight nights and learned my lesson the hard way. I'm rigid as hell now. Flat betting has saved me a few times as well. Theres a guy on reddit who blew his bank on the first Rose/JJ fight. Something like 30k of profit for the year was done within 60 seconds.

 

[Kyle Stephens]

Theres a guy on reddit who blew his bank on the first Rose/JJ fight. Something like 30k of profit for the year was done within 60 seconds.

Imagine if he thought that this was a total fluke and bet all that he has left on Jedrzejczyk in the rematch?

 

[Danis_champ]

Theres a guy on reddit who blew his bank on the first Rose/JJ fight. Something like 30k of profit for the year was done within 60 seconds.

WMMA: Check
Juice: Check
Greediness: Check
Bad money management: Check

A fool and his money get quickly separated.

 

[GrantSorenson]

Imagine if he thought that this was a total fluke and bet all that he has left on Jedrzejczyk in the rematch?

He went in heavy on JJ in the rematch from what I recall. Didn't blow 30k but a fair few units all the same

 

[Kyle Stephens]

Boys, I wish I can contribute to this thread with info and opinions about more than the main event and a couple more fights, but I just simply don't have the time to spend on the whole fightcard and I chose just the fights that excites me. Sorry.

So I've rewatched Miocic v Ngannou.
I gotta say that Stipe's wrestling is not as dynamic as Curtis', but he uses a whole lot more subtleties in his approach. The way he manipulated Ngannou on the ground was very crafty. To get Ngannou down one time he used double leg into a knee tap. I mean, come on!
And we all have to listen VERY CAREFULLY to the commentary of Dominick Cruz. He can come off as a smartass, but he has serious fight knowledge and it is a goldmine listening him.
For example, he said that big and strong dude like Ngannou is far easier to be taken down with the single leg, because that way you can mess with his balance and his strength won't be enough alone to help him defend that type of takedown. Blast doubles are harder to execute vs fighters with very strong hips like Ngannou. Because you are going strength for strength. At least I understood it like that.

It makes my analysis that if Ngannou fight from southpaw he'll most likely win in the beginning of the thread, to look like shit. We think we know something until real expert comes and school us. Dominick Cruz is amazing!

To continue about the fight: Stipe was hitting him with HIS BEST PUNCHES. I don't know how any of the shots didn't even fazed him a bit. I think it was 3rd round when Stipe NAILS him with vicious right hand! Fucking nothing. I mean we are talking prime Mark Hunt levels of chin.
So Stipe OWNS him standing up, Ngannou misses every power punch he tried. I think it was the 4th he throws a one-two combo and stuns Stipe for a few seconds. That's Francis' all meaningfull offence in the entire fight.

Can Curtis be even close to what Stipe done to Ngannou in the striking department - I really don't think so. He is more athletic and bigger than Stipe, but he does not have the technique - on the offence or the defence. Can he execute the rest of the gameplan? Single legs, then lean on him, make him carry your weight etc. etc. Yes! I don't know if he will fight like that but he can certainly can. One thing that I think we need to keep in mind is that Ngannou was really passive on the ground, Derrick Lewis levels of passive. He DID try to use submission threat to escape two or three times, and had mixed success with that. So if he is not in a complete defensive shell on the ground, I don't think Curtis' could do a whole lot as far as damage and he maybe won't be able to even hold him on the ground for any meaningfull period of time.
A lot of ifs.
But I should praise the intelligence of Mr. Cruz once again. He is arrogant and cocky but he knows his shit.

 

[Wiktoruspro]

I think I will just play this parlay
Xiaonan
Mueller
Zhang
Yadong Song
Kenan Song
300 to win 960

 

[oliverinsix]

Did something happen overnight? Who are all these newcomers and white belts and why are they all starting sh with the OGs? It feels like a civil war’s erupting in here

 

[Kyle Stephens]

Did something happen overnight? Who are all these newcomers and white belts and why are they all starting sh with the OGs? It feels like a civil war’s erupting in here

It's honestly just me, oliverinsix
If I am not welcommed to the thread I'll leave. Don't want to cause any trouble.