UFN 146 on ESPN+ 4 Lewis vs Dos Santos

Anyone have any ITD plays they feel really strongly about?

The more tape I watch the more comfortable I am with Boetsch to stop Wolverine...
 
Short Notice:
- Maurice Greene (in for Daniel Spitz 1 loss) vs. Hughes [2 weeks] - Hughes had 7 weeks notice

Short Notice - fights announced 1 month ago:
- Tim Means vs. Niko Price
- Grant Dawson vs. Julian Erosa
- Louis Smolka vs. Matt Schnell
- Alex Morono vs. Zak Ottow
- Alex White vs. Dan Moret

Ring Rust:
- Rothwell 1059 days
- Boetsch 326 days
- Akhmedov 431 days
- Dawson 567 days

Returning from TKO loss:
- Price in September (via Alhassan) R1
- Erosa in November (via Smith) R1
- Moret in April (via Burns) R2

Returning from Injury:
- Zaleski injury in November, pulled out of Jingliang Li fight in Beijing
- Rothwell knee injury in 2016 vs Werdum, USADA Violation in 2017 vs Werdum
- Akhmedov injury in September, vs. C.B. Dollaway in Moscow

UFC debut:
- Grant Dawson (DW's Contender Series - sub win)
- Jeff Hughes (DW's Contender Series - tko win)

Underdogs with win streaks
- Dober (3 win streak) vs. Dariush (1 win)
 
I think he has a simply average chin, as opposed to a glass one people are projecting onto him. The Hernandez shot was pretty killer unless I'm not remembering the fight properly...
Agreed, the shot from Barboza would destroy anyone
And the shot from Hernandez was quite solid too so i think its an overreaction

The one valid knock on Daruish is his cardio isnt 100% reliable
But his standup is at least equal too Dober but with an absolute massive advantage on the ground
 
Agreed, the shot from Barboza would destroy anyone
And the shot from Hernandez was quite solid too so i think its an overreaction

The one valid knock on Daruish is his cardio isnt 100% reliable
But his standup is at least equal too Dober but with an absolute massive advantage on the ground

Whatta think about Boetsch? On board the weekly jerk?
 
Millender wins inside distance +315

Oooooohhhh. Well, he's certainly got the knees and kicks if he manages to catch him clean.
 
Dariush/Dober - Southpaw vs Southpaw, so both of their left body kicks will be taken away which both use with regularity. Dariush has the better weapons standing in this matchup with his jab and outside low kick. The only southpaw Dober has faced recently was OAM who bloodied him early and often with his jab and simply outstruck him in general even though he is as robotic as they come on the feet, especially back then. Both Dober and Dariush also like to pressure, which puts them into the clinch often. Dober is good in the clinch, but Dariush has a nasty Thai plum and great clinch tds which give him the advantage. Rashid is very solid in the clinch and Dariush 30-27'd him with huge parts of the fight playing out there. The grappling is not very close, Dober is a decent wrestler but Dariush is on another level on the mat. OAM got dropped, but was able to create space, grab a leg lock, sweep to top, take his back and RNC him in under a minute once it hit the mat. Dariush is the more powerful striker with better weapons, especially when accounting for SP v SP, should win the clinch exchanges, and has a substantial grappling advantage. Dober has better cardio and punch resistance.

This writeup makes me want to go even bigger, but given the cardio and durability issues, I am not comfortable laying a huge bet at -185, so only 1.5u for now.
 
Pretty safe bet. I think he beats Green AGAIN via decision. Also, short notice fight for Green... he was probably lying on the couch drinking a few beers when he got the call.

<{ohyeah}>
In an interview he said that he took a couple of weeks off after his last fight.
 
Yeah. I'm feeling a fairly quick Darush submission here, but also don't trust Dariush's chin at alll.
Same here. However, I bet Dariush anyway at -185 but this might end up being a very close fight. Dober is also on a 3 fight win streak.
 
Same here. However, I bet Dariush anyway at -185 but this might end up being a very close fight. Dober is also on a 3 fight win streak.
I think Dobers win streak is misleading here. Camacho Decision was pretty BS and Burkman and Tuck have combined UFC records of 5-12. Dariush is a completely different level to those guys.
 
I really like JDS in this fight and the odds are now going the right way. But BB's history of winning in the latter rounds makes me hesitant to play JDS, I bet Tybura and Volkov, and those are painful memories. JDS does have a better gas tank, and he is a bad stylistic match up for BB. Maybe the over 2.5 is the safest play for this fight, if you are getting anywhere near plus odds.

You undersell. This is an utterly horrible match-up for BB. It'll be Rothwell 2.0 but in slo-mo, haha if that can be pictured. Aside from yet another fluke KO he has little to no chance here. I'm pretty ok with the odds on JDS and I think he finishes (ref stop) a completely gassed BB in 3/4/5 so I'll look for those too. Your Over play might have some legs to it as well.
 
I think Dobers win streak is misleading here. Camacho Decision was pretty BS and Burkman and Tuck have combined UFC records of 5-12. Dariush is a completely different level to those guys.

And in the meantime, Dariush, surely recognizing a susceptibility to being KO'd, utterly dismantled Moises last November. This is a mismatch in my opinion. Outside a flash KO, Dober is getting 30-27'd or choked out.
 
You undersell. This is an utterly horrible match-up for BB. It'll be Rothwell 2.0 but in slo-mo, haha if that can be pictured. Aside from yet another fluke KO he has little to no chance here. I'm pretty ok with the odds on JDS and I think he finishes (ref stop) a completely gassed BB in 3/4/5 so I'll look for those too. Your Over play might have some legs to it as well.
Feel like the over at + is a better way to go

Ya i agree JDS should thrive in this type of fight but -200 isnt worth the stress of having to deal with derek lewis for 25 minutes

If there is one knock to JDS its his tendency to get backed into the cage.... that wont end well if he pulls that repeatedly here
 
Love what I hear from Benny in this interview.

He was specifically asked if he wants to make the fight "exciting" because Dober said he just wants to have an exciting fight (jobber mentality lol). Benny said he wants to control the fight from start to finish and that this is the most important goal for him in a fight. He also predicts a submission victory. Might happen, might not happen but at least we can be sure that Beneil‘s goal will be to dominate Dober with his superior grappling.

Only thing hindering me from betting him now is that Dober has good cardio, is quite fast and moves forward non stop. I think he also has some power despite his low KO rate. However it’s a southpaw vs southpaw fight and that could benefit Dariush here as we saw Dober struggle at times against another southpaw in OAM.
 
Interviews: Dober, Dariush



 
Cardio + Chin are two very very important factors for me when capping a fight.

I give Dober the advantage in both.

I think Beniel is more talented in just about every area, but I have to stick to my guns.

Pass for me.
 
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