UFN 148 on ESPN+ 6 Thompson vs Pettis

[Emang8]

Hill has good TDD and get ups and way better striking and won't go to shit after R1 like Markos always does nowadays.

Also calling one fight means absolutely nothing tbh. There were plenty of us hitting Griffin at +300 or whatever his line was at then.

You all can call me “Prophet Emang8”. I’m opening up a sports betting recommendation website, picks starting at only $59.99!

 

[Jordan3399]

You all can call me “Prophet Emang8”. I’m opening up a sports betting recommendation website, picks starting at only $59.99!

You're the GOAT Bro.

 

[OutRun]

Fair points, i feel more nuance is needed to what ur saying, but i dont feel like sperging out on this one lol, best of luck but let me get thompson to clear my Thursday/ Friday basketball parlays ya?

You'll probably cash mate I just don't like the steep odds. All good brah.

 

[FourHorsemen]

Pettis inside the distance at +550. I just cant say no to those odds.

Can I get an Amen

 

[nebulousned]

Can I get an Amen

congrats.

what made you pick that when he hasnt ko'd someone in over 5 years and moved up weight class?

 

[FourHorsemen]

congrats.

what made you pick that when he hasnt ko'd someone in over 5 years and moved up weight class?

His track record shows him as a finisher.
10 KO's, 8 subs and just four of his wins by decision.

I figured he'd be ready for a war after his recent loss to El Cucuy. Add to this that he has a more well rounded game than wonderboy. Pettis has had a habbit of picking up wins out of thin air.

Still, I actually favoured WB to win. The reason I bet Pettis was the odds. The bookmakers set them wrong, I thought it disrespectful quite honestly.

The odds they were paying suggested that if WB and Showtime fought 6 times, Pettis would only knock him out or submit him one time out of 6. I disagreed with them.

It's also been quite emphatically proven over the last year , that cutting tons of weight is not a part of optimal preparation.

My knowledge vs theirs.

 

[ApplesVild]

Out of curiosity what were the odds on Pettis by finish? Pettis by KO? And Pettis by round 2 KO?

 

[Jordan3399]

Out of curiosity what were the odds on Pettis by finish? Pettis by KO? And Pettis by round 2 KO?

https://www.bestfightodds.com/

 

[ApplesVild]

https://www.bestfightodds.com/

I'm in a valium shadow right now I can't even make sense of what I'm looking at

 

[OutRun]

I'm in a valium shadow right now I can't even make sense of what I'm looking at

Every column is a different sportsbook. Find whichever book you wager with by looking along the top.
Every row is a fight. Every cell in the array is an odd.
Click the arrows at the far right of a row to expand the wagers within that fight, and see all of the prop bets offered for that fight across the different sportsbooks.

 

[ApplesVild]

Every column is a different sportsbook. Find whichever book you wager with by looking along the top.
Every row is a fight. Every cell in the array is an odd.
Click the arrows at the far right of a row to expand the wagers within that fight, and see all of the prop bets offered for that fight across the different sportsbooks.

Much appreciated my brother

 

[Stunna77]

Makdessi is going to steamroll Pinedo outside of a flash, flukey KO. To say they are on different levels of striking is disrespectful to Makdessi, as they are quite literally worlds apart. Pinedo spent most of the 1st round getting outstruck by Devin Powell, has been sparked cold by a 7-13 regional fighter in 9 seconds and generally doesn't offer much besides a lot of volume, which will only open him up to Mak's counters. Shane Campbell is a highly decorated Muy Thai fighter, whom is also a kick-heavy southpaw, and Mak obliterated him in under a round. Cap Mak at least -500 here, currently have 10u -198, will probably end up breaking my normal 5u max bet and leave 7.5u and/or hedge with Pinedo ITD. We simply rarely get mismatches like this at playable lines, so it feels like an appropriate time to stretch.

I've seen a bit of talk about Willis TDD and how Blaydes may not be able to get tds cause he wasn't able to against Omie. Y'all realize Omie has way better cardio and still got 30-27'd, right? At worst this looks similar to that fight where blaydes lands his long jabs, changes levels to get into the clinch and simply grinds on him there. More likely, he does this for the first round and Willis TDD starts to fade with his cardio. I like Blaydes to get a late 2nd or 3rd round GnP stoppage. Willis only avenue is a KO and Blaydes has proven to be ridiculously durable. Adding to the unlikelihood of a Willis finish is he hasn't shown killer instinct, letting human punching bag Chase Sherman off the hook multiple times and clearly losing rd3. Have 5u -250.

Guiterrez/Macdonald has already been discussed in great detail. Outside of a 5'11 beanpole outwrestling him, Guiterrez should be the more skilled guy in all facets. Took 3u -120.

Formiga has been an absolutley elite 125er for a decade, only losing to top contenders or champions. He is incredibly slick taking the back and has improved his wrestling a lot. I am worried about Fig's physicality and power so am keeping it small, but Formiga as a dog is definitely the right side here imo. 1u Form +150

Like Saenz to win a dec, but I liked it a lot better when I had 2u at +200ish, have yet to pull the trigger this time around. Keeping an eye on Hill's line as well.

Another quality event. Lost a bit lbing Aldrich and FGTD there which hurt, but came out +6u or so. Huge start to the year continues, up 60ish units, time to up the unit size again. Hope all made out well!