UFN 158 on ESPN+ 16 Cowboy vs Gaethje Official Bets
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4u gaethje @1.65
0.8u gaethje/mvp @ 2.24
0.5u Gaethje/douglas lima @ 3.15
1.2u gaethje/kgb @2.51
i think gaethje's strategic improvements are being underrated a little here. a quick turnaround usually suits cowboy but after taking a lot of damage in his last few fights especially vs ferguson in what will be only 3 months after that when he fights gaethje, it seems to me at least that he is fighting too soon. In the last 2 and a half years cowboy has been ko/tko'd 4 times on top of the damage he''s sustained in his wins, that is a terrible look vs someone of gaethje's new calculated tenacity, toughness, power and skill.
0.8u gaethje/mvp @ 2.24
0.5u Gaethje/douglas lima @ 3.15
1.2u gaethje/kgb @2.51
i think gaethje's strategic improvements are being underrated a little here. a quick turnaround usually suits cowboy but after taking a lot of damage in his last few fights especially vs ferguson in what will be only 3 months after that when he fights gaethje, it seems to me at least that he is fighting too soon. In the last 2 and a half years cowboy has been ko/tko'd 4 times on top of the damage he''s sustained in his wins, that is a terrible look vs someone of gaethje's new calculated tenacity, toughness, power and skill.
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2u Gaethje KO -123
Freeroll for 0.8u on Cowboy
1.5u Under 1.5 -125
0.5u Krylov R1 KO +600
0.25u Duffee R1 KO +400
0.25u Hughes Dec +417
3u ACJ -161
3u Cirkunov +120
0.75u Crute R1 +333
2u Smolka -161
2u Griffin -105
0.25u Skelly R1 +700
1u Prepolec +220
1u Katona -128
2u Katona NSC -145
1u Azure Dec +232
0.15u Katona Sub +700
0.1 Katona KO +1000
0.05u Smith R3 +2000
Freeroll for 0.8u on Cowboy
1.5u Under 1.5 -125
0.5u Krylov R1 KO +600
0.25u Duffee R1 KO +400
0.25u Hughes Dec +417
3u ACJ -161
3u Cirkunov +120
0.75u Crute R1 +333
2u Smolka -161
2u Griffin -105
0.25u Skelly R1 +700
1u Prepolec +220
1u Katona -128
2u Katona NSC -145
1u Azure Dec +232
0.15u Katona Sub +700
0.1 Katona KO +1000
0.05u Smith R3 +2000
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The stars have aligned for this event i will be unloading some cash on these in vegas so the odds might not be perfectly represented watever fuck off
10U Cirkinov +145 ish as of now
10U Griffin +115
10U Katona -170
10U Vettori-220
10U Cirkinov +145 ish as of now
10U Griffin +115
10U Katona -170
10U Vettori-220
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How much of a percentage of your roll does 40 units make up there bud?
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1U =1 % of bankroll lad.
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It's $40
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I understand that so risking 40 pct of it on 4 fights seems a tad weird no?
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Its Fear & Loathing in Vegas weekend bro
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Krylov - £20 for £40
Ryan McDonald - £10 for £28
Saki - £14 for £28
Hughes - £10 for £20
Vettori + Justin - £15 for £32
Probably a few more as the week goes on
Ryan McDonald - £10 for £28
Saki - £14 for £28
Hughes - £10 for £20
Vettori + Justin - £15 for £32
Probably a few more as the week goes on
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2u Misha Cirkunov to win 2.2u
2u Hunter Azure to win 2.5u
2u Hunter Azure to win 2.5u
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ACJ -141 $500
Teixera +119 $1000
Cirkunov +195 $150
Smolka -164 $1100
Smith +140 $200
Teixera (+120) + Smolka (-115) +253 $500
Teixera (+120) + Azaitar (-235) +171 $250
Smolka (-165) + Azaitar (-235) -116 $250
Regret not getting more on that Cirk line, didn't want to exploit the parlay workaround too much. Few more fights to tape
Teixera +119 $1000
Cirkunov +195 $150
Smolka -164 $1100
Smith +140 $200
Teixera (+120) + Smolka (-115) +253 $500
Teixera (+120) + Azaitar (-235) +171 $250
Smolka (-165) + Azaitar (-235) -116 $250
Regret not getting more on that Cirk line, didn't want to exploit the parlay workaround too much. Few more fights to tape
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After some decent success these last two Ufc cards I'm back to using units like a sane person.
2.5u for 1.2u Gaethje- kinda back and forth on this one but I gotta go with my gut I think he can shut down Cerrones offence.
4.5u for 3u Griffin- I think his ground game is solid, and his athleticism and more rounded game should see him looking dominant especially after R1
2.5 for 15u parlay probably got a little ahead of myself here but I don't hate it.
Gaethje- Cerrones a badass but this quick turn around may favor the younger man
+
Hall- Probably just a hard fade against shoeface. Hall probably gets choked but I think his tool box is deeper if he can use it
+
Sakai- Didn't do enough tape before adding this. I do like Sakai's footwork for a HW and his cardio seems decent as well though. Hopefully his +260lb size and nimble feet can help stop Tybura's grappling.
Looking at one or two more plays but that's it for now
2.5u for 1.2u Gaethje- kinda back and forth on this one but I gotta go with my gut I think he can shut down Cerrones offence.
4.5u for 3u Griffin- I think his ground game is solid, and his athleticism and more rounded game should see him looking dominant especially after R1
2.5 for 15u parlay probably got a little ahead of myself here but I don't hate it.
Gaethje- Cerrones a badass but this quick turn around may favor the younger man
+
Hall- Probably just a hard fade against shoeface. Hall probably gets choked but I think his tool box is deeper if he can use it
+
Sakai- Didn't do enough tape before adding this. I do like Sakai's footwork for a HW and his cardio seems decent as well though. Hopefully his +260lb size and nimble feet can help stop Tybura's grappling.
Looking at one or two more plays but that's it for now
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10u on Cowboy @ +180
5u Gaethje vs Cerrone O1.5 rounds
5u Gaethje vs Cerrone O1.5 rounds
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I had a lot of confidence in Justin until he showed up for the workouts and started talking about almost pulling out, something just tells me he's not coming into this 100% and not just because of the eye infection. I haven't bet him straight, just have him finishing a few parleys, so I'll look to either hedge out a little or maybe risk it and be ready with the live bet
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Mentally scoffing at myself for not having a higher, more appropriate unit size while updating my nerded out spreadsheet while waiting on other tabs to load on shit wifi as I search for and finally find a working browser VPN addon to get access to sites to place real money on that fucking loser Misha Cirkunov while on vacation: true degen.
Glover ML - 2u for 1.74u (-115)
Not ACJ ITD - 2u for 2u (+100)
Hughes ML - 1u for 1.05u (+105)
Smolka ML - 2u for 0.91u (-220)
Smolka Submission - 1u for 1.9u (+190)
Cirkunov ML - 2u for 2.1u (+105)
Griffin ML - 3u for 2.31u (-130)
Griffin Round 3 - 0.25u for 2.13u (+850)
Katona ML - 2u for 1.28u (-155)
Katona Submission - 0.25u for 1.26u (+505)
Smith Round 3 @Gugabe shoutout - 0.25u for 5u (+2000)
Fights to end in submission, Over:
3.5 - 0.5u for 0.98u (+195)
4.5 - 0.25u for 1.44u (+575)
5.5 - 0.125u for 2.76u (+2205)
6.5 - 0.1u for 9.13u (+9125)
Glover ML - 2u for 1.74u (-115)
Not ACJ ITD - 2u for 2u (+100)
Hughes ML - 1u for 1.05u (+105)
Smolka ML - 2u for 0.91u (-220)
Smolka Submission - 1u for 1.9u (+190)
Cirkunov ML - 2u for 2.1u (+105)
Griffin ML - 3u for 2.31u (-130)
Griffin Round 3 - 0.25u for 2.13u (+850)
Katona ML - 2u for 1.28u (-155)
Katona Submission - 0.25u for 1.26u (+505)
Smith Round 3 @Gugabe shoutout - 0.25u for 5u (+2000)
Fights to end in submission, Over:
3.5 - 0.5u for 0.98u (+195)
4.5 - 0.25u for 1.44u (+575)
5.5 - 0.125u for 2.76u (+2205)
6.5 - 0.1u for 9.13u (+9125)
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JG to finish a bunch of parlays in addition to max betting :
Gaethje max -180
Gaethje max TKO
Gaethje max ITD
Gaethje max r1
Gaethje max -180
Gaethje max TKO
Gaethje max ITD
Gaethje max r1
