UFN 98 - Ferguson vs RDA - Mexico City

[Ingvar]

Yes, but he has achieved what it was that long. and most can not repeat it.

 

[rille31]

is Chris Avila from muchico?

Im wondering cuz avila is a latin name

 

[Officer_Brown]

I dont see why he wouldnt. If he wins prob gets a title shot

No he won't unless Michael Johnson somehow pulls this off. khabib has a win over Rda and with a win over ferg rda would be on a 1 win win streak.

 

[Officer_Brown]

I dont know nuttin about puelles and bravo, someone enlight me? Guys on tapology hugely favor bravo (83%) but I see 50:50 odds. Why is that?

 

[Sham5916910]

No he won't unless Michael Johnson somehow pulls this off. khabib has a win over Rda and with a win over ferg rda would be on a 1 win win streak.

Hes still there or thereabouts i cant see motivation being an issue. Im on ferg fwiw.

 

[vkram]

I dont know nuttin about puelles and bravo, someone enlight me? Guys on tapology hugely favor bravo (83%) but I see 50:50 odds. Why is that?

I wouldn't pay too much attention to the picks on Tapology. Most likely what happened was a snowball effect since nobody knows a lot about either guy they just go with what the other thin etc.

 

[Brick Top]

I dont know nuttin about puelles and bravo, someone enlight me? Guys on tapology hugely favor bravo (83%) but I see 50:50 odds. Why is that?

Tapology is probably the worst thing to use for picks

 

[null]

I dont know nuttin about puelles and bravo, someone enlight me? Guys on tapology hugely favor bravo (83%) but I see 50:50 odds. Why is that?

Scroll back a couple of pages or so, some of us posted detailed thoughts on the finale fight.

 

[lefontes]

I like dos Anjos/Ferg: Fight ITD (Possible heavy on this)
Both finishers, stand or ground, aggressives, on altitude, i dont see this fight go 5 rounds war...

Thoughts?



Other possible bets (normal stake):
Over 1,5 Alvey/Nicholson
Barzola + Over 2,5 Dariush/Magomedov
Over 1,5 Lamas/Oliveira + Grasso
Davis (Bellator) + Held (UFC)
Grasso decision
Perez decision
Over 1,5 Reyes/Novelli

 

[Brick Top]

I like dos Anjos/Ferg: Fight ITD (Possible heavy on this)
Both finishers, stand or ground, aggressives, on altitude, i dont see this fight go 5 rounds war...

Thoughts?



Other possible bets (normal stake):
Over 1,5 Alvey/Nicholson
Barzola + Over 2,5 Dariush/Magomedov
Over 1,5 Lamas/Oliveira + Grasso
Davis (Bellator) + Held (UFC)
Grasso decision
Perez decision
Over 1,5 Reyes/Novelli

I've been arguing with myself about betting Ferg-RDA ITD. I can't imagine a Ferg fight lasting 25 mins, but both guys are super durable with amazing cardio. It's a tough one

 

[Officer_Brown]

im probably parlaying ferg, dariush, oliveira, perez and reyyes. I just dont want to go broke this time. parlays ftw

 

[Officer_Brown]

Damn I re watched colby vs max and max showd some ability to recover guard and get back to his feet. He struggled a lot though. But Monatno shouldnt be on Colbys level. Montano looked gassed in the first round. This fight is in mexico.Montano's cardio sucks but Griffin probably never been to mexico. (ufc money) RANDY has zero grappling but he controlled montano most of the fight until he got reversed. Griffin is better standing up. Damn so many positive and negative things about both guys. im kind a torn i dont know which side to pick.

 

[michi972]

Thinking of:
Fergusson
Lamas
Alvey+Held

 

[Sham5916910]

Lamas tdd only 48% on Fightmetric. Can anyone think when he's been taken down? Is this skewed possibly by his WEC days?

It's not often i watch tape on nearly every fight on a card but due to the long break and no strong leans right off the bat i watched tape on most fights. I can honestly say i don't have one strong lean. Barzola is unplayable. I likes Reyes here but he fights crazy and is so easy to hit i can't risk laying cash on him. I like Alvey here but Nicholson has crazy ko power i just cant pull the trigger on Alvey. It just goes on and on where i can make a reasonable case for both sides. I think this will be a great card for lb especially when you consider how the elevation could affect performances.

 

[weedreference]

Liking the Alvey/Nicholson over... based on history it doesn't seem great, but I can see the pace starting very slow and Nicholson giving Alvey a lot of respect. He has pretty good distance strikes, so I could see a repeat of what the Theodoreau did as possible. At near evens for an o1.5 I'll take the risk.

Also like the Montano/Griffen over. Montano is a conservative distance striker like his brother, and Max seems to land the big shot when guys are really coming after him. We could also see a lot of lay and praying in this one. Max showed good sub defense vs Colby.

 

[Rebel_LioN]

Chris Avila is not a UFC level fighter and he's delusional about it. He wants to be like big homie Nate but he aint. He's got no character and he doesn't even have the right type of attitude to even improve if he even had the capacity for it.

What does it mean for you to fight in the UFC? My fighting skills are world-class.
Favorite grappling technique: None
Favorite Striking technique: None

I expect Barzola to beat him but at -500 that's too steep a line. Playing prices like that to win peanuts to the dollar will eventually bite you in the ass and it also messes up the entire market so everyone loses. I gotta cut my chances in half by playing a prop and I don't expect to even get good props.

Barzola decision will probably the most likely outcome for a ok fighter like him but I'm not buying that price cuz it'll probably be worse than -110. I'm not sure how good of a finisher Barzola is but having lost a close split in his last fight I'd think he'd want to come out and TRY to materialize a finish. And by that I mean he should throw some caution to the wind by swinging for the fences a bit at least to take matters out of judges hands.

If Barzola dec comes in at +odds, I may play it, but since his line is overinflated with all the action it's getting, I'm probably going to take my chances with the ITD line. Maybe a GnP TKO or RNC via pushing the pace at elevation might help? However I gotta wonder if Avila should have some decent cardio if he works out with the Diaz bros.

Thoughts on this? I'm guessing the play will be in the neighborhood of +225 considering the u2.5 is +165.

Edit: Here's a link to cringey interview with Chris Avila for reference:

 

[Card]

http://www.mmaoddsbreaker.com/news/full-ufc-fight-night-98-betting-odds/

Both Ricardo Lamas and Charles Oliveira seem stuck in the same tier at featherweight. They’re below Jose Aldo, Frankie Edgar, Chad Mendes, and Max Holloway (and Conor McGregor, should he decide to be a featherweight again), but capable of beating anyone else in the division. Oliveira might be the best submission finisher in MMA right now, but he’s also the more susceptible of these two to get finished at any given time. I think the key to this bout is going to be that Lamas isn’t able to deal with the pace that Oliveira wants to fight at. Oliveira is going to be the one initiating and throwing more in exchanges, and he has good length for a featherweight that he’s becoming more and more adept at using. As long as he can avoid the one big shot from Lamas, I think this is Oliveira’s fight to win, as he’s not the type of fighter to get ground out, which seems to be what Lamas is having to do as he nears the end of his tenure as a top 145er.

Marco Antonio Beltran being 3-0 in the UFC typifies the current UFC product. Prior to going back and watching his fights, there wasn’t a single moment I remembered from any of his previous Octagon appearances. He’s going to be favored over Guido Cannetti, and that in itself makes this an interesting spot. Cannetti is the bigger puncher of the two, has better wrestling, and improved his cardio drastically from his UFC debut to his upset of Hugo Viana. Now, we’ve learned that Viana is pretty bad recently, but is he any worse than Marlon Vera or Guangyou Ning, who Beltran went to close decisions with? I’d be willing to put a ticket out there on anything over +150 that he’s not.

It’s hard to read much into Max Griffin’s UFC debut. He was facing a steamroller in Colby Covington, and he got… well, steamrolled. Erick Montano showed better than expected against Randy Brown in his most recent appearance, but got submitted late, which was his fourth sub loss in four losses. The problem for him is that Griffin is the more dangerous striker here, so he may be forced to use his wrestling and risk getting caught again. Griffin doesn’t have a great guard, but he’s good if he can get on top, so Montano will have to be steady with his position if he can score takedowns. If he can’t get the takedowns, he’s probably going to be eating quite a bit of leather en route to his first loss not by submission.

Douglas Silva has some of the sloppiest striking in the UFC, while Henry Briones was effective enough on the feet to force Cody Garbrandt to use his wrestling for the only time in his career. That bodes well for Briones here, although Silva seems to bring fighters down to his level and make fights ugly. Briones also hasn’t shown great takedown defense so far in the UFC, so perhaps Silva can sneak in a takedown or two to steal a round, although that’s not really his MO. I still think Briones pulls off the win, but I’m not confident enough to bet it unless I can get a decent plus number.

Alex Nicholson seems like the perfect matchup for Sam Alvey. We know what Alvey is at this point, and that’s an extremely patient counterstriker with massive power. He shouldn’t have to wait long for openings against Nicholson however. Nicholson moves forward and throws wildly. He was getting lit up on the feet by Devin Clark, and if Alvey connects with the same shots, I don’t think Nicholson survives.

Polo Reyes may not have a long career, but it’s going to be a fun one. He throws at a high clip, has virtually no defense, but excellent recovery. Jason Novelli is better than he showed against David Teymur, and he isn’t going to face many strikers of that calibre in the UFC. His reach advantage might not come into play here as Polo Reyes is so aggressive and intent on closing the distance, but Novelli could have good success in the clinch and may even be able to take this fight down from there, where his advantage should be significant. This could be a sneaky spot where Novelli doesn’t get the respect he deserves and the price could be right for a play.

Despite having a pretty bad decision go against him in his last outing, I think it’s safe to say that Enrique Barzola has already exceeded expectations in the UFC. After showing his wrestling in his debut, he showed massively improved striking against Kyle Bochniak. On the other hand, Chris Avila lost to Artem Lobov via flowiness, and I’m not sure there’s a single thing Lobov does better than Barzola (other than keeping it flowy, of course).

 

[EzFlyer]

Lamas tdd only 48% on Fightmetric. Can anyone think when he's been taken down? Is this skewed possibly by his WEC days?

I'm pretty shocked by that stat. Kinda don't believe it. I feel like not many guys have tried to take lamas down in general.. i also barely remember him being on his back in any fight(s) for long...

 

[Sham5916910]

I'm pretty shocked by that stat. Kinda don't believe it. I feel like not many guys have tried to take lamas down in general.. i also barely remember him being on his back in any fight(s) for long...

Exactly my thinking. If that was the case i'd be all over Olive. Only fight i can recall where he may have been on his back albeit for a limited amount of time is the Dias fight.

 

[Joseph Budden]

http://www.mmaoddsbreaker.com/news/full-ufc-fight-night-98-betting-odds/

Both Ricardo Lamas and Charles Oliveira seem stuck in the same tier at featherweight. They’re below Jose Aldo, Frankie Edgar, Chad Mendes, and Max Holloway (and Conor McGregor, should he decide to be a featherweight again), but capable of beating anyone else in the division. Oliveira might be the best submission finisher in MMA right now, but he’s also the more susceptible of these two to get finished at any given time. I think the key to this bout is going to be that Lamas isn’t able to deal with the pace that Oliveira wants to fight at. Oliveira is going to be the one initiating and throwing more in exchanges, and he has good length for a featherweight that he’s becoming more and more adept at using. As long as he can avoid the one big shot from Lamas, I think this is Oliveira’s fight to win, as he’s not the type of fighter to get ground out, which seems to be what Lamas is having to do as he nears the end of his tenure as a top 145er.

Marco Antonio Beltran being 3-0 in the UFC typifies the current UFC product. Prior to going back and watching his fights, there wasn’t a single moment I remembered from any of his previous Octagon appearances. He’s going to be favored over Guido Cannetti, and that in itself makes this an interesting spot. Cannetti is the bigger puncher of the two, has better wrestling, and improved his cardio drastically from his UFC debut to his upset of Hugo Viana. Now, we’ve learned that Viana is pretty bad recently, but is he any worse than Marlon Vera or Guangyou Ning, who Beltran went to close decisions with? I’d be willing to put a ticket out there on anything over +150 that he’s not.

It’s hard to read much into Max Griffin’s UFC debut. He was facing a steamroller in Colby Covington, and he got… well, steamrolled. Erick Montano showed better than expected against Randy Brown in his most recent appearance, but got submitted late, which was his fourth sub loss in four losses. The problem for him is that Griffin is the more dangerous striker here, so he may be forced to use his wrestling and risk getting caught again. Griffin doesn’t have a great guard, but he’s good if he can get on top, so Montano will have to be steady with his position if he can score takedowns. If he can’t get the takedowns, he’s probably going to be eating quite a bit of leather en route to his first loss not by submission.

Douglas Silva has some of the sloppiest striking in the UFC, while Henry Briones was effective enough on the feet to force Cody Garbrandt to use his wrestling for the only time in his career. That bodes well for Briones here, although Silva seems to bring fighters down to his level and make fights ugly. Briones also hasn’t shown great takedown defense so far in the UFC, so perhaps Silva can sneak in a takedown or two to steal a round, although that’s not really his MO. I still think Briones pulls off the win, but I’m not confident enough to bet it unless I can get a decent plus number.

Alex Nicholson seems like the perfect matchup for Sam Alvey. We know what Alvey is at this point, and that’s an extremely patient counterstriker with massive power. He shouldn’t have to wait long for openings against Nicholson however. Nicholson moves forward and throws wildly. He was getting lit up on the feet by Devin Clark, and if Alvey connects with the same shots, I don’t think Nicholson survives.

Polo Reyes may not have a long career, but it’s going to be a fun one. He throws at a high clip, has virtually no defense, but excellent recovery. Jason Novelli is better than he showed against David Teymur, and he isn’t going to face many strikers of that calibre in the UFC. His reach advantage might not come into play here as Polo Reyes is so aggressive and intent on closing the distance, but Novelli could have good success in the clinch and may even be able to take this fight down from there, where his advantage should be significant. This could be a sneaky spot where Novelli doesn’t get the respect he deserves and the price could be right for a play.

Despite having a pretty bad decision go against him in his last outing, I think it’s safe to say that Enrique Barzola has already exceeded expectations in the UFC. After showing his wrestling in his debut, he showed massively improved striking against Kyle Bochniak. On the other hand, Chris Avila lost to Artem Lobov via flowiness, and I’m not sure there’s a single thing Lobov does better than Barzola (other than keeping it flowy, of course).

lol @ De Andrade having some of the sloppiest striking in the UFC. What a dumb statement.