Social US sees surge in measles cases as health experts plead for more vaccinations

[nhbbear]

I wonder if all the unvaccinated undocumented guests flooding through our southern border could have something to do with these outbreaks of an almost entirely wiped out disease?

 

[PhitePhan]

I don't know what you're saying here.

You're pointing out how low-level and infrequent the risks are, or you're pointing out that there is a risk of some sort and that alone makes them unsafe?

I’m saying we KNOW that some vaccines can cause serious problems, and we KNOW that the research into safety risks is inadequate… those were my initial claims that you called a “fake narrative.”

Obviously there’s nothing “fake” about what I wrote unfortunately.

 

[Siver!]

I’m saying we KNOW that some vaccines can cause serious problems, and we KNOW that the research into safety risks is inadequate… those were my initial claims that you called a “fake narrative.”

Obviously there’s nothing “fake” about what I wrote unfortunately.

What you're saying doesn't really prove that, though.

Having a febrile seizure is unfortunate and not something you want to see for your kid, but also:

"Febrile seizures are convulsions that can happen when a young child has a fever above 100.4°F (38°C). (Febrile means "feverish.") The seizures usually last for a few minutes and stop on their own. The fever may continue for some time. Most febrile seizures stop without treatment and don't cause other health problems."

Just listing a very rare, non-serious, non-life threatening, non-treatment-requiring side effect to a vaccine doesn't prove that research is inadequate or that vaccines are unsafe. It just proves that, rarely, things can go wrong and we know they can go wrong (thanks to, you know, research) - which is pretty much the truth for absolutely everything in life, by the way.

Things can go wrong going down a set of stairs.

 

[PhitePhan]

What you're saying doesn't really prove that, though.

Having a febrile seizure is unfortunate and not something you want to see for your kid, but also:

"Febrile seizures are convulsions that can happen when a young child has a fever above 100.4°F (38°C). (Febrile means "feverish.") The seizures usually last for a few minutes and stop on their own. The fever may continue for some time. Most febrile seizures stop without treatment and don't cause other health problems."

Just listing a very rare, non-serious, non-life threatening, non-treatment-requiring side effect to a vaccine doesn't prove that research is inadequate or that vaccines are unsafe. It just proves that, rarely, things can go wrong and we know they can go wrong (thanks to, you know, research) - which is pretty much the truth for absolutely everything in life, by the way.

Things can go wrong going down a set of stairs.

Those seizures “usually” last a few minutes and “most” don’t cause other problems…What about when they last longer, or when they DO cause problems?

The MMR alone (other vaccines cause seizures as well) is associated with thousands of febrile seizures a year and hundreds of extra chronic epilepsy cases- and this is the the US alone.

And this is just ONE vaccine and two adverse events… the MMR is known to cause other adverse events and we are giving many vaccines to kids that ALSO have the “small” potential for adverse events.

Re: The unofficial vaccine educators: are CDC funded non-profits sufficiently independent?

www.bmj.com

“Furthermore, a large 2004 Danish epidemiological study published in JAMA found that the risk of febrile seizures after MMR vaccination is 1 in 640[4] —a five-fold higher risk of febrile seizure than the risk of seizure from measles.[5] Vestergaard et al. studied the association between MMR and seizures in about 537,000 Danish children 0 to 14 days following MMR vaccination and found 1.56 MMR-related febrile seizure cases per 1,000 vaccinated children aged 15 to 17 months (95% CI, 1.44 to 1.68). Vestergaard’s results are based on 973 febrile seizures within two weeks of MMR vaccination, a robust database containing about 18,000 febrile seizures, and a nonvaccinated control group of about 98,000 children. Applying the 1 in 640 risk of febrile seizure to the 3.64 million U.S. children (91% vaccination rate applied to 4 million children[6]) vaccinated with MMR every year results in about 5,700 annual MMR-related seizures.“

The issue of inadequate safety research I cite is due independent research shows that the existing MMR safety research is lacking. And this is the MMR which has to be one the MOST studied vaccines we have. This means that we don’t really know the true risks of many vaccines (it took decades before researchers learned that the MMR was linked to increased seizures and epilepsy).

 

[Siver!]

Those seizures “usually” last a few minutes and “most” don’t cause other problems…What about when they last longer, or when they DO cause problems?

The MMR alone (other vaccines cause seizures as well) is associated with thousands of febrile seizures a year and hundreds of extra chronic epilepsy cases- and this is the the US alone.

And this is just ONE vaccine and two adverse events… the MMR is known to cause other adverse events and we are giving many vaccines to kids that ALSO have the “small” potential for adverse events.

Re: The unofficial vaccine educators: are CDC funded non-profits sufficiently independent?

www.bmj.com

“Furthermore, a large 2004 Danish epidemiological study published in JAMA found that the risk of febrile seizures after MMR vaccination is 1 in 640[4] —a five-fold higher risk of febrile seizure than the risk of seizure from measles.[5] Vestergaard et al. studied the association between MMR and seizures in about 537,000 Danish children 0 to 14 days following MMR vaccination and found 1.56 MMR-related febrile seizure cases per 1,000 vaccinated children aged 15 to 17 months (95% CI, 1.44 to 1.68). Vestergaard’s results are based on 973 febrile seizures within two weeks of MMR vaccination, a robust database containing about 18,000 febrile seizures, and a nonvaccinated control group of about 98,000 children. Applying the 1 in 640 risk of febrile seizure to the 3.64 million U.S. children (91% vaccination rate applied to 4 million children[6]) vaccinated with MMR every year results in about 5,700 annual MMR-related seizures.“

The issue of inadequate safety research I cite is due independent research shows that the existing MMR safety research is lacking. And this is the MMR which has to be one the MOST studied vaccines we have. This means that we don’t really know the true risks of many vaccines (it took decades before researchers learned that the MMR was linked to increased seizures and epilepsy).

The number is 3 in 10,000, so yeah, it's going to be quite a few per year in a country the size of USA.

But it's a tiny proportion of people having a reaction. When you then ask what happens to the tiny proportion of that tiny proportion, you're talking extremely unlikely events.

Measles, Mumps and Rubella aren't and have never been 'extremely unlikely events'. As with all medicine, it all has side effects, you weigh up the risk and the reward.

There isn't a drug in the world that's entirely safe, legal, illegal, or everyday, so I don't really understand what you're saying. Don't take anything and just pray you never, ever catch an illness? That's what they did before medicine, I don't think it used to work out so good to be honest with you.

 

[PhitePhan]

The number is 3 in 10,000, so yeah, it's going to be quite a few per year in a country the size of USA.

Yeah, the math shows almost 6000 febrile seizures and almost 300 epilepsy cases per year due to the MMR in the US alone.

So you retract your “fake narrative” claim?

But it's a tiny proportion of people having a reaction. When you then ask what happens to the tiny proportion of that tiny proportion, you're talking extremely unlikely events.

Measles, Mumps and Rubella aren't and have never been 'extremely unlikely events'. As with all medicine, it all has side effects, you weigh up the risk and the reward.

How does one weigh the risk/reward when the safety research is inadequate?

There isn't a drug in the world that's entirely safe, legal, illegal, or everyday, so I don't really understand what you're saying. Don't take anything and just pray you never, ever catch an illness? That's what they did before medicine, I don't think it used to work out so good to be honest with you.

I’m saying medical decisions (including vaccination) should be made on a case by case basis based on the individual’s risk factors and informed by empirical evidence, do you disagree?

 

[Siver!]

So you retract your “fake narrative” claim?

How does one weigh the risk/reward when the safety research is inadequate?

I’m saying medical decisions (including vaccination) should be made on a case by case basis based on the individuals risk factors… do you disagree?

Why in the world would I retract the claim that vaccine hesitancy nonsense is a fake narrative? It very definitely is?

I don't accept that safety research is inadequate. There are contrarians in every field, they're the rare 'side effect' that comes with education, if you like. Why would you or I take them particularly seriously? There are people out there that will argue up is down and left is right.

Absolutely, make each vaccine a 'case by case' decision. For example, Measles kills approx 1 in 5,000. So any idiot would vaccinate themselves/their kids against Measles as the vaccine isn't nearly as dangerous as Measles.

 

[PhitePhan]

Why in the world would I retract the claim that vaccine hesitancy nonsense is a fake narrative? It very definitely is?

I don't accept that safety research is inadequate. There are contrarians in every field, they're the rare 'side effect' that comes with education, if you like. Why would you or I take them particularly seriously? There are people out there that will argue up is down and left is right.

Absolutely, make each vaccine a 'case by case' decision. For example, Measles kills approx 1 in 5,000. So any idiot would vaccinate themselves/their kids against Measles as the vaccine isn't nearly as dangerous as Measles.

Cochrane review is not “contrarian” and not even vaccine zealots make this claim. So here you just want to hand wave valid and accepted research because it doesn’t fit your worldview… but I’m the one pushing a “fake narrative.” Sure thing buddy.

Indeed, there are people who will argue anything, like a vaccine that causes thousands of seizures a year is “safe” and that a lack of adequate safety data isn’t a problem.

Regarding your 1/5000 number, I applaud you for getting that stat right.

The vast majority of severe measles cases occur in narrow demographics, including malnourished and immunocompromised. My kids don’t have either of those problems, so our risk/benefit analysis should be reflective of their situation, no?

 

[Siver!]

Cochrane review is not “contrarian” and not even vaccine zealots make this claim. So here you just want to hand wave valid and accepted research because it doesn’t fit your worldview… but I’m the one pushing a “fake narrative.” Sure thing buddy.

Indeed, there are people who will argue anything, like a vaccine that causes thousands of seizures a year is “safe” and that a lack of adequate safety data isn’t a problem.

Regarding your 1/5000 number, the vast majority of severe measles cases occur in narrow demographics, including malnourished and immunocompromised. My kids don’t have either of those problems, so our risk/benefit analysis should be reflective of their situation, no?

The 1/5000 figure is best case scenario. It's 1/100 when you factor in malnourishment and impoverishment. I actually gave you the 'best case scenario' to play fair, and you immediately argued it was the worst case scenario. But the worst case scenario is way, way worse than that.

How does that now inform your decisions?

Measles

vaccineknowledge.ox.ac.uk

In high-income regions of the world, such as Western Europe, measles still causes death in about 1 in 5000 cases. But in the poorest regions, as many as 1 in 100 will die.

You haven't mentioned the Cochrane review before now. I'm going to guess that you're talking about something that has nothing to do with MMR vaccines or the vast majority of vaccines and are just mindlessly extrapolating, but feel free to surprise me with something that isn't an outdated critique of specifically Covid19 vaccine technology only.

 

[PhitePhan]

The 1/5000 figure is best case scenario. It's 1/100 when you factor in malnourishment and impoverishment. I actually gave you the 'best case scenario' to play fair, and you immediately argued it was the worst case scenario. But the worst case scenario is way, way worse than that.

How does that now inform your decisions?

Measles

vaccineknowledge.ox.ac.uk

In high-income regions of the world, such as Western Europe, measles still causes death in about 1 in 5000 cases. But in the poorest regions, as many as 1 in 100 will die.

You haven't mentioned the Cochrane review before now. I'm going to guess that you're talking about something that has nothing to do with MMR vaccines or the vast majority of vaccines and are just mindlessly extrapolating, but feel free to surprise me with something that isn't an outdated critique of specifically Covid19 vaccine technology only.

See my earlier edit.

I’ve already linked everything I’m talking about here, feel free to read my last handful of posts and get up to speed.

 

[Siver!]

See my earlier edit.

I’ve already linked everything I’m talking about here, feel free to read my last handful of posts and get up to speed.

I did look, I can't find where you talked about the Cochrane review, and I can't find it in your links either.